Hedera (HBAR) Daily Market Analysis

Hedera (HBAR) Surges 25% Amid Altcoin Rally and Digital Monetary Institute Membership

Price Action and Market Movement

Hedera price jumped 25.18% in the last 24 hours, lifting HBAR to $0.09768 after trading as low as $0.07346 during the session. Trading volume reached $427 million, up about 65% on the day, as the Hedera price pushed back toward the upper end of its recent range near $0.0974.

The move comes despite a soft weekly performance, with HBAR still down roughly 5.8% over seven days. The total crypto market rose 3% in 24 hours to $2.38 trillion after a violent liquidation-driven sell-off exhausted sellers earlier in the week, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $60,000 on February 5, triggering $964 million in long liquidations.

Digital Monetary Institute Membership

The network joined the Digital Monetary Institute, aligning itself with central banks, financial institutions, and payment providers engaged in CBDC and digital currency policy discussions. This development provided fundamental support for the recent price rally, positioning Hedera within a global network focused on central bank digital currency initiatives.

Strategic Partnerships and Institutional Developments

The collaboration with McLaren will feature free digital collectibles during F1 Grand Prix events and Arrow McLaren IndyCar collectibles for the 2026 season, with Hedera branding displayed on race cars, driver suits, and team vehicles, designed to simplify fan engagement by removing the need to hold HBAR tokens or manage blockchain wallets.

Enterprise Council Expansion in 2026 is adding global corporations to its governance council to drive institutional adoption. Key drivers include partnerships with SWIFT and BIS for compliant tokenization, HIP-1249 upgrades to boost smart contract efficiency, and visibility at Davos/WEF events.

Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook

Canary CEO flagged HBAR as a top pick for banks and ETFs on January 30, 2026. On-chain data reveals Hedera is the #1 network for Real-World Asset (RWA) developer activity.

While short-term charts are dominated by bearish patterns and fear, the underlying narrative is strengthening with top-tier RWA development, institutional ETF filings, and strategic partnerships, with the key metric to watch being the $0.10–$0.12 support zone; a decisive hold there could confirm the bullish fundamental story is beginning to outweigh the technical pessimism.

Fee Structure Changes

Hedera announced in July that it will increase its ConsensusSubmitMessage transaction fee by 800% starting January 2026, with the fee rising from $0.0001 to $0.0008. Despite the magnitude of the percentage increase, the absolute cost remains minimal, and the fee adjustment primarily targets enterprise use cases and does not significantly alter the cost structure for most applications or users.

HBAR Price Movement Analysis

Current Price and 24-Hour Performance

HBAR is currently trading at $0.0880 USD, with a 24-hour price decline of 0.22%. The token's market capitalization stands at approximately $3.86 billion, reflecting its position as a mid-cap cryptocurrency.

Key Market Factors

Trading Volume and Activity

The 24-hour trading volume is $255.595 million, indicating moderate market activity. This volume level suggests neither exceptional buying nor selling pressure in the immediate term.

Broader Market Context

The decline reflects broader weakness in the altcoin sector. HBAR goes down mainly because of weak market sentiment and low demand, as after the strong rally in late 2024, many investors took profits while the whole altcoin market lost momentum.

Technical Indicators

The RSI value is at 40.86, which indicates that the HBAR market is in a neutral position. However, technical charts show bearish pennants and flags, signaling a risk of further decline.

Weekly and Longer-Term Perspective

Over the past seven days, HBAR has declined 3.35%, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. HBAR's 52% yearly decline underscores macro headwinds, indicating sustained pressure from macroeconomic factors and market sentiment.

Market Outlook

Despite near-term weakness, the underlying narrative is strengthening with top-tier RWA development, institutional ETF filings, and strategic partnerships. The key metric to watch is the $0.10–$0.12 support zone; a decisive hold there could confirm the bullish fundamental story is beginning to outweigh the technical pessimism.

HEDERA (HBAR) MARKET SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

Overall Sentiment Assessment

The current market sentiment is bearish with a Fear & Greed Index score of 9 (Extreme Fear), indicating significant pessimism despite some underlying positive fundamentals. Technical analysis signals 6 bullish indicators against 23 bearish signals, reflecting a predominantly negative technical outlook in the near term.

Price Performance Metrics

HBAR is currently trading at $0.0898, down 0.22% in the last 24 hours and 3.35% over the past week. Over the last 30 days, Hedera has had 9/30 (30%) green days and 10.2% price volatility. The token maintains a market capitalization of approximately $3.86 billion with trading volume of $153.4 million.

Social Media and Community Sentiment

Across all social media platforms, Hedera has an average sentiment score of 4.9 out of 5, with 58.21% of tweets showing bullish sentiment compared to 2.32% bearish sentiment. Social media buzz remains overwhelmingly positive with strong engagement across platforms over the past week, suggesting the community is sticking with the project through the consolidation period.

This divergence between technical bearishness and social bullishness indicates retail and community confidence persists despite short-term price weakness.

Trader Positioning and Technical Indicators

The RSI momentum oscillator currently stands at 40.86, indicating the HBAR market is in a neutral position. HBAR consolidates near $0.10 support with resistance at $0.14, while RSI (29.48) signals oversold conditions amid broader crypto fear (index 26) and Bitcoin dominance (59.13%).

Large orders from whales have been increasing since mid-October, suggesting that they are purchasing HBAR on every price decline, indicating institutional accumulation despite bearish sentiment.

Recent Sentiment Shifts and Catalysts

Social sentiment data shows a key bullish post from 6 February 2026 highlighting Hedera's formal entry into the Digital Monetary Institute (DMI), a forum for central banks and financial institutions, which bolstered perceptions of Hedera's enterprise legitimacy.

The HBAR ETF is gaining momentum with $1.46 million in inflows this week, the highest level since early December when it reached $1.78 million, suggesting liquidity is flowing into HBAR and potentially signaling a price rise.

Enterprise and Institutional Factors

On-chain data reveals Hedera is the #1 network for Real-World Asset (RWA) developer activity, with enterprise adoption including a partnership with McLaren Racing. Hedera's Governing Council—including Google, IBM, and Standard Bank—drives real-world use cases like Georgia's land registry tokenization and SWIFT's cross-border payment tests, with recent upgrades (v0.68) focusing on scalability.

Market Consolidation Pattern

As Q1 2026 is ongoing and HBAR is range-bound, optimism grows in the asset, with price holding between $0.1120-$0.1270 on the weekly chart where a successful rally could indicate strong demand, while a drop below it may trigger investor concerns.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Holding $0.10 is critical; failure risks a 15% drop, while breakout targets $0.14. If HBAR spikes, then $0.1930 is key resistance in the immediate term and beyond this, 2026 could revisit $0.2835, followed by $0.4010 high.

HEDERA (HBAR) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Current Market Status

Price: $0.0898 USD Market Cap: $3.86 billion 24h Volume: $153.4 million 24h Change: -0.22% 7d Change: -3.35%

---

Technical Indicators

Momentum Indicators

The RSI value is at 40.86, which indicates that the HBAR market is in a neutral position. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 38.57, suggesting natural conditions so market is neither overbought nor oversold, while the weekly chart's relative strength index (RSI) is at 41.29, also indicating natural conditions in the market.

Moving Averages

The 50-day moving average is falling, suggesting a weakening short-term trend, while the 200-day moving average has been falling since 03/02/2026, indicating a weak longer-term trend. On the weekly chart, HBAR is sliding into a full technical breakdown, which confirms a death cross as the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA.

MACD

RSI has climbed to the low 60s, signaling improving momentum, while MACD is turning positive, supporting the bullish bounce.

---

Key Support Levels

• $0.072 - Prior cycle low zone, which is now the most critical structural support on the chart
• $0.082-$0.093 - Former support levels at $0.093 and $0.10 have flipped into heavy resistance, acting like supply walls rather than bounce points
• $0.10 - Critical support zone
• $0.12-$0.125 - If HBAR holds $0.125–$0.12 support, the next upside targets are $0.135–$0.14

---

Key Resistance Levels

• $0.094 - First ceiling that matters
• $0.10 - Level HBAR must reclaim on a daily close to meaningfully invalidate the bear thesis
• $0.127 - Fibonacci 0.236 zone
• $0.135-$0.14 - Immediate resistance sits at $0.135–$0.14, with a stronger cap near $0.15
• $0.161 - Fibonacci 0.382 level
• $0.193 - Key resistance levels are at $0.1930

---

Chart Patterns & Structure

HBAR's price remains locked in a sustained downtrend with each recovery attempt capped by the upper trendline, while lower highs and lower lows confirm persistent bearish control, with the most recent move pushing HBAR toward the bottom of this channel, signaling that sellers are still dictating direction.

Technical charts show bearish pennants and flags, signaling a risk of further decline.

---

Volume Analysis

Trading volume remains healthy at $150-$170 million, indicating active liquidity across exchanges. Current 24-hour volume of $153.4 million reflects moderate trading activity relative to market cap.

---

Timeframe Analysis

Hourly (1H-4H): On the four-hour chart, Hedera is bearish with the 50-day moving average falling, suggesting a weakening short-term trend.

Daily: In the daily chart, Hedera is bearish with the 50-day moving average currently above the price and falling, which might resist future price movements, while the 200-day moving average has been falling since 09/01/2026, showing long-term weakness.

Weekly: On the weekly timeframe, Hedera appears bullish with the 50-day moving average above the price and rising, potentially acting as resistance, while the 200-day moving average, falling since 20/07/2025, supports a declining trend.

---

Short-Term Outlook

The death cross has accelerated selling pressure, leaving HBAR down roughly 35% over the past 30 days. Based on multiple technical quantitative indicators, the current forecast for Hedera Hashgraph in 2026 is bearish.

However, analysts see a potential 47% surge to $0.16 despite current bearish momentum.

---

Medium-Term Outlook

For February 2026, the maximum trading value will be around $0.0978, with a possibility of dropping to a minimum of $0.0822, with an average cost of $0.0900.

Key resistance levels are at $0.1930, with potential higher targets at $0.2835 and $0.4010 in 2026.

---

Critical Levels to Monitor

The key metric to watch is the $0.10–$0.12 support zone; a decisive hold there could confirm the bullish fundamental story is beginning to outweigh the technical pessimism.