Here's the latest news for Monero (XMR):

Recent Market Situation (February 2026)

Monero is experiencing significant turbulence. The price has crashed 60-65% from its January 2026 peak of ~$650, now trading around $312-$323. This includes a sharp 25% privacy coin sell-off on February 5th as the broader crypto market enters extreme fear territory.

Major Recent Developments

🚨 Regulatory Crackdown Intensifies

• Dubai Ban (Feb 4, 2026): Dubai's financial authority banned XMR and ZCash from all regulated activities in the DIFC
• EU Pressure: MiCA regulations are tightening, with a planned 2027 ban on privacy coin listings
• Exchange Delistings: Over 70 delistings occurred in 2025, with major platforms like Binance and OKX removing spot trading pairs

⚖️ Dark Web Market Sentencing (Feb 5, 2026)

The creator of Incognito Market (a dark web platform that facilitated $105M in drug sales using Bitcoin and Monero) was sentenced to 30 years in prison. Notably, the FBI successfully traced Monero transactions through centralized exchange off-ramps, demonstrating that while XMR provides strong on-chain privacy, exchange vulnerabilities remain.

Positive Technical Developments

✅ Recent Updates

• Ledger Bug Fix (Jan 11, 2026): Release v0.18.4.5 resolved critical Ledger Nano integration errors
• All-Time High Developer Activity: Monero hit 400 weekly core developer commits in late December 2025

🔮 Major Upgrade Coming: FCMP++ (2026)

Developers are preparing the final alpha version of Full Chain Membership Proof (FCMP++), a major privacy upgrade that will:

• Replace current ring signatures with full-chain membership proofs
• Provide stronger anonymity guarantees
• Improve scalability and add quantum resistance
• Make chain analysis significantly more difficult

The Bottom Line

Monero is caught in a regulatory squeeze while simultaneously seeing its core privacy technology become more relevant. The project maintains strong developer activity and technical innovation, but faces mounting institutional pressure through exchange delistings and regulatory bans. The upcoming FCMP++ upgrade could be a significant catalyst if successfully implemented.

Key factors to watch:

• FCMP++ upgrade execution
• Further regulatory developments (especially EU's 2027 timeline)
• Ability to maintain decentralized liquidity channels
• Market sentiment recovery from current extreme fear levels

The privacy narrative remains strong among crypto advocates, but institutional accessibility continues to decline. XMR's future depends on balancing its censorship-resistant ethos with the practical realities of an increasingly regulated crypto landscape.

Based on my comprehensive investigation across market data, news, social sentiment, and derivatives, here's what's happening with Monero (XMR):

The Situation: Mixed Signals

Actually, XMR is UP 3.87% today (last 24 hours), currently trading at $345.56. However, you're likely noticing the broader context—XMR has been down 10.14% over the past week and experienced a brutal 65% crash from its January peak of ~$799.

Why XMR Has Been Under Pressure

🚨 1. Severe Regulatory Crackdown (Primary Driver)

The biggest factor is intensifying global action against privacy coins:

• Dubai Ban (Feb 4, 2026): Dubai's financial authority banned Monero and ZCash from all regulated activities in the DIFC
• EU Exchange Delistings: Major European exchanges have delisted privacy tokens, forcing institutional capital to exit
• 70+ Exchange Delistings Total: This severely limits liquidity and accessibility
• Dark Web Sentencing (Feb 5): The Incognito Market creator received 30 years in prison for facilitating $105M in drug sales using XMR, reinforcing negative regulatory perception

Impact: Institutional access is being systematically removed, pushing XMR further into decentralized/P2P-only territory.

💥 2. Massive Leverage Liquidation Cascade

Derivatives data reveals the technical damage:

• $114.94K in long liquidations (60.2% of total) in the past 24 hours
• Community reports show traders were "wiped out 6 times" during the $800→$275 crash
• This created a self-reinforcing sell-off as overleveraged positions were forcibly closed

📉 3. Trader Sentiment Turned Bearish

• 57.9% short positioning vs. 42.1% longs (ratio: 0.73)
• Open Interest up 4.95% while price fell—indicating new shorts are opening
• Funding rates at 0.0091% (neutral but longs paying shorts)
• Some analysts predict further downside to $150 based on bear flag patterns

🌊 4. Broader Market Fear

• Fear & Greed Index at 5/100 (Extreme Fear)
• Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.4%—capital fleeing altcoins for BTC safety
• XMR underperformed the broader market during the early February correction

🐋 5. Whale Distribution

Social media reports unusual selling from large holders, suggesting institutional or whale-level distribution adding to downward pressure.

The Silver Lining: Signs of Stabilization

Despite the bearish backdrop, there are positive signals:

✅ Support Holding: Price bounced strongly off the $270-$280 support zone, suggesting seller exhaustion ✅ Today's Recovery: The +3.87% gain today shows buying interest returning ✅ Privacy Demand Intact: Core utility remains strong as global surveillance increases (EU DAC8, IRS 1099-DA rules) ✅ Supply Shock Potential: Leverage wipeout removed weak hands, potentially setting up explosive upside ✅ Neutral Funding: Not overleveraged, so no extreme positioning to unwind

What to Watch

Bearish scenario: Break below $280 support could trigger cascade to $150 Bullish scenario: Hold current levels and break $450 resistance signals reversal toward $500+

Key levels: Support at $280 | Resistance at $450

Bottom Line

XMR's recent weakness stems from a perfect storm of regulatory pressure, leverage liquidations, whale selling, and market-wide fear—not fundamental issues with Monero itself. Today's bounce suggests the worst selling may be over, with the market potentially entering a consolidation phase. However, the regulatory headwinds remain a long-term challenge as institutional access continues to shrink.

The community is split: bears see $150, bulls see this as a shakeout before the next leg up. The neutral derivatives positioning and strong support at $270-$280 suggest the market is resetting rather than collapsing.

Monero (XMR) Market Sentiment - February 11, 2026

Overall Sentiment: BEARISH with Short-Term Stabilization

The market sentiment for Monero today is predominantly negative, though showing signs of a modest short-term bounce after a brutal selloff.

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📊 Current Market Snapshot

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🔴 Major Bearish Factors

1. Severe Technical Breakdown

• 65% crash from mid-January peak of ~$799 to recent lows of $276
• Bear flag pattern forming, typically signaling further downside
• Analysts targeting $150 as next critical support level
• Weekly trend remains deeply negative (-10.14%) despite today's bounce

2. Regulatory Crackdown

• Dubai ban (Feb 4): DFSA prohibited XMR trading in the DIFC, following EU's planned 2027 ban
• Privacy coin sector crash (Feb 5): 25% selloff triggered by regulatory fears and exchange delistings
• Dark web association: Recent sentencing of Incognito Market creator reinforced negative regulatory perception

3. Capitulation Selling

• Exchange inflows turned positive: Investors are using price bounces to exit positions, not accumulate
• Futures open interest collapsed 60%: From $279M to $110M, showing traders closing positions
• Loss-taking behavior dominates over buying the dip

4. Macro Headwinds

• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 5-11 (extreme fear)
• Bitcoin dominance rising: 58.47% - capital fleeing altcoins
• XMR underperforming broader market significantly

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🟢 Positive Signals (Limited)

1. Short-Term Recovery

• +3.87% today shows some buying interest returning
• Price holding above $340 support zone
• Low volatility (7.58/100) indicates stability

2. Technical Indicators Show Momentum

• RSI at 83 (overbought but trending up)
• ADX at 55 (strong momentum)
• Price 3.42% above 24h VWAP

3. Privacy Demand Thesis

• Community emphasizes XMR's "privacy king" status remains valuable
• Growing demand for anonymity amid regulatory pressures on other cryptos
• Upcoming FCMP++ upgrade promises stronger anonymity and quantum resistance

4. Post-Leverage Cleanup

• Recent liquidations cleared overleveraged positions
• Creates cleaner conditions for potential recovery

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💬 Social Media Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish (60/40)

X.com discussions show mixed sentiment:

Bullish camp sees:

• Oversold bounce opportunity after -57% drawdown
• Strong support at $300-340 range
• Privacy demand increasing during market uncertainty

Bearish camp warns:

• Bearish absorption patterns with lower highs
• Potential decline to $150-175 range
• Weak engagement (no viral momentum yet)

Key observation: Low social engagement suggests this isn't a widely hyped move - either room for growth or lack of conviction.

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🎯 Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $350-360 (needs to break for bullish continuation)
• Support: $300-340 (critical zone to maintain structure)
• Breakdown level: $276 (recent low)
• Capitulation target: $150 (analyst downside scenario)

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📈 Trading Outlook

Short-term (Today/This Week):

• Potential for continued bounce toward $350-360 if momentum holds
• Watch for confirmation during U.S. trading hours

Medium-term (Weeks/Months):

• Bearish structure remains intact until XMR reclaims $400+
• Regulatory headwinds and technical breakdown suggest further downside risk
• $150 remains a realistic target if $300 support breaks

Contrarian view:

• Some analysts see -57% from ATH as asymmetric opportunity
• Privacy fundamentals and FCMP++ upgrade could drive recovery
• Requires broader market stabilization and regulatory clarity

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⚠️ Bottom Line

Today's +3.87% gain is a short-term relief rally within a broader bearish trend. While XMR shows signs of stabilization and oversold conditions, the combination of regulatory crackdowns, technical breakdown, and capitulation flows suggests caution.

The market is attempting to find a bottom, but without sustained buying pressure, rising open interest, or positive regulatory developments, this recovery lacks conviction. Monitor the $300-340 support zone closely - a break below could trigger another leg down toward $150.

Risk level: High. Only suitable for risk-tolerant traders with tight stop-losses.

XMR Technical Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels

Great timing on this question! Monero is at a critical juncture right now. Let me break down the key levels based on comprehensive market data, technical analysis, and derivatives positioning.

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📊 CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT

Key Context: XMR crashed ~63.7% from its January 2026 all-time high of $798, and is currently in a consolidation phase after a sharp 7-day decline.

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🔴 KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS

Immediate Resistance: $360-365

• Significance: Near-term overhead resistance from recent price action
• Technical: Failed retest of this zone; price rejected multiple times
• Strategy: Watch for volume confirmation if price approaches this level

Primary Resistance: $335-352 (Critical Zone)

• Significance: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the $230-$799 rally
• Status: Recent retest failed to produce meaningful reaction
• Derivatives Signal: Liquidation heatmap shows $390-420 as next magnetic zone
• Strategy: Strong selling pressure expected here; shorts may add positions

Secondary Resistance: $390-420

• Significance: First major overhead magnetic zone in liquidation heatmap
• Open Interest Context: Near the $340.31M OI peak (historical conviction zone)
• Implication: If price reaches here, expect another bearish rejection unless volume surges

Major Resistance: $442-500

• $442: Key Fibonacci level
• $500: Major magnetic zone with heavy liquidation clusters
• Recovery Threshold: Breaking above $400+ would signal genuine trend reversal

Long-Term Resistance: $529-635

• Significance: Bigger recovery checkpoints
• Context: Would require sustained bullish momentum and fundamental catalysts

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🟢 KEY SUPPORT LEVELS

Immediate Support: $314-320 (CRITICAL)

• Significance: Recent 7-day low; lower boundary of bear flag pattern
• Derivatives Signal: Recent short squeeze ($49.90K in short liquidations = 94% of total) suggests floor forming here
• Risk: Decisive break below $314 would confirm continuation lower
• Strategy: This is the line in the sand for bulls

Primary Support: $280-300 (High-Conviction Zone)

• $280: Reached on February 6, 2026 (recent low)
• $300-310: Psychological round level
• Significance: Long-term higher-timeframe support that has historically mattered
• Expert Consensus: CoinCodex identifies this as "well-defined higher-timeframe support"
• Status: Currently being tested; if this holds, potential for reversal

Major Support: $230-280 (Do-or-Die Zone)

• Significance: The critical decision point for XMR's medium-term trajectory
• Open Interest Context: Near the $51.69M OI low (historical support zone)
• Expert View: "Support in high-$200s is where market either holds or cracks"
• Implication: If this zone fails, expect capitulation

Deep Support: $150 (Fibonacci Demand Zone)

• Significance: Major Fibonacci retracement level; primary downside target
• Risk: Would represent another 50%+ decline from current levels
• Context: Where long-term buyers may realistically reappear
• Deeper Levels: $114 and $88 if $150 fails

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📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS ANALYSIS

Moving Averages (Bearish Structure)

• 50-day MA: Above price, acting as resistance
• 200-day MA: Rising since Jan 2026, but price below it
• Death Cross Alert: 20-day and 50-day MAs forming bearish crossover after 4 months of bullish trend

Momentum Indicators

Chart Pattern: Bear Flag Formation ⚠️

• Structure: Sharp drop from $799 → $276 (flagpole), followed by consolidation (flag)
• Implication: Typically signals continuation lower, NOT reversal
• Invalidation: Price must close above $350 and $532 on daily candles to weaken bearish pattern
• Target: If pattern completes, $150 becomes realistic

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💹 DERIVATIVES MARKET SIGNALS

Liquidation Analysis (Bullish Contrarian Signal)

• Recent 24h: $49.90K in short liquidations (94% of total)
• Implication: Aggressive short squeeze suggests support forming
• Largest Event: $4.47M liquidation on Jan 14, 2026 = major inflection point

Open Interest Structure

• Current OI: $115.69M (+61.65% over 90 days)
• Context: Below average ($117.58M), suggesting recent profit-taking
• Interpretation: Declining OI + falling price = weak conviction; consolidation phase

Funding Rates (Neutral)

• Current: 0.0091% per day (3.31% annualized)
• 90-day bias: 94% of days positive (bullish bias)
• Implication: No extreme leverage; market can move decisively in either direction

Positioning (STRONG Contrarian Signal) 🚨

• Long/Short Ratio: 0.73 (42.1% long / 57.9% short)
• Interpretation: Retail is heavily short (57.9%)
• Historical Context: Below-average long positioning (48.4% average)
• Contrarian View: When majority is short + Extreme Fear (12) = potential capitulation bottom

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🎯 TRADING SCENARIOS

Bullish Scenario (Support Holds)

Entry Zone: $280-320 (if support confirms) Targets:

1. $360-365 (immediate resistance)
2. $390-420 (primary resistance)
3. $442-500 (major resistance)

Confirmation Signals:

• Price closes above $350 on daily candles
• OI increases while price rises
• Funding rates turn positive
• RSI breaks above 60

Stop Loss: Below $270

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Bearish Scenario (Support Breaks)

Breakdown Level: Close below $314 Targets:

1. $280-300 (retest)
2. $230-250 (major support)
3. $150 (Fibonacci demand zone)

Confirmation Signals:

• Death cross completes
• OI increases while price falls
• Funding rates turn negative
• ADX remains above 35

Stop Loss (for shorts): Above $370

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⚠️ CRITICAL FACTORS TO MONITOR

Bullish Catalysts:

✅ Extreme Fear (12): Historically, capitulation zones precede reversals ✅ Short Squeeze Setup: 57.9% short positioning vulnerable to squeeze ✅ Development Progress: FCMP++ and Seraphis upgrades in late-stage testing ✅ Stabilization Signs: Price not cascading lower; starting to bounce

Bearish Risks:

❌ Bear Flag Pattern: Technical structure suggests continuation lower ❌ Regulatory Pressure: Dubai banned privacy coins; EU restrictions coming July 2027 ❌ Falling Open Interest: Down 60% from $279M (mid-Jan) to $110M = reduced conviction ❌ Death Cross Formation: Major bearish technical signal ❌ Weak Volume: $124M daily volume insufficient for strong reversal

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📌 SUMMARY: THE CRITICAL DECISION ZONE

Current Status: XMR is at a make-or-break moment between $280-320 support.

Most Likely Scenario (60% probability): Price consolidates in the $300-360 range for 1-2 weeks before making a decisive move. The bear flag pattern and death cross suggest downside bias toward $230-280, but extreme fear and short positioning create short squeeze potential.

Key Level to Watch: $314

• Hold = potential bounce to $360-390
• Break = likely cascade to $280, then $230

Contrarian Setup: The combination of:

• Extreme Fear (12)
• Heavy short positioning (57.9%)
• Recent short liquidations ($49.90K)
• Neutral funding rates

...creates a classic capitulation bottom setup. However, the bear flag pattern and regulatory headwinds mean bulls need strong volume confirmation.

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🎓 FINAL RECOMMENDATION

For Traders:

• Wait for confirmation at $314 support or $365 resistance before entering
• Risk management is critical: Use tight stops given high volatility (21.28%)
• Watch derivatives: If OI climbs while price holds $314, it confirms bullish conviction

For Investors:

• DCA approach: Consider scaling into positions between $280-320 if you believe in long-term fundamentals
• Patience required: Recovery to $500+ likely takes months, not weeks
• Regulatory risk: Factor in potential exchange delistings due to privacy coin restrictions

Bottom Line: XMR is in a high-risk, high-reward zone. The $280-320 support is where the market will decide if this is a bottom or just a pause before further decline. Trade accordingly with proper risk management.

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Analysis current as of February 11, 2026. Crypto markets are highly volatile—always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.