OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) - Technical Analysis
Current Market Status
TRUMP is trading at $3.40 USD with a 24-hour gain of 3.28%. The token ranks #60 by market cap at $790.36 million. TRUMP reached an all-time high of $73.43 and is currently trading -95.40% below that peak.
Key Market Metrics:
- 24-hour trading volume: $125.69 million (9.60% increase from previous day)
- Circulating supply: 502M tokens; Locked supply: 497.38M tokens
- Price holding below key daily moving averages clustered around $4.8–$5.9
Key Support Levels
Primary support levels are at $3.47, $3.44, and $3.40, positioned near dynamic EMA zones that may act as short-term buffers.
Strong support lies between $3.01 and $4.35.
The zone $3.225–$4.471 represents the most critical key level, acting as solid support to halt downward trends.
Secondary Support:
- Initial support sits near the classic pivot at 5.23, with a move below S1 at 4.35 risking a test of the lower pivot zone near 3.89
Key Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are at $3.51, $3.55, and $3.60, with previous rejection wicks and recent highs indicating increased likelihood of supply concentration.
Immediate resistance starts near $5.23, with higher resistance zones appearing around $5.68 to $7.02.
Upper Resistance:
- The first area to watch is the classic R1 pivot around 5.69; a sustained daily close above this level could bring the R2 region near 6.57 back into focus
- If bullish momentum emerges in Q1 2026, the $5.50 resistance level is crucial; a decisive breakout could signal a significant rally toward $8.50 and potentially $16
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages:
TRUMP trades slightly below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, suggesting short-term weakness after a recent rally, though the price remains above the 200-day EMA, indicating the overall trend remains moderately bullish.
RSI & Momentum:
RSI (14) at 38.43 suggests room for recovery if bulls defend $5.50.
MACD histogram turned positive (+0.014) for the first time in 7 days, signaling momentum shift; resistance at $5.74 (7-day SMA) and $6.07 (Fibonacci 61.8%) could cap gains without volume surge.
Chart Patterns
February price action remained range-bound around the lower border of a falling wedge pattern; if demand picks up, a bounce to $6 could happen in March, conversely, if it does not rise, a decline to lower levels is also a possibility.
Official Trump laid out a descending channel pattern; descending channel patterns are short-term bearish but often form longer-term uptrends as continuation patterns, with higher prices often following after an upside penetration of the upper trend line.
Trading Volume Analysis
Trading volume increased 9.60% from the previous day to $125.69 million.
More than one volume effect during up-moves indicates that buying power has not yet been exhausted.
Moderation in strength and volume is a sign of possible short-term consolidation before the next move.
Short-Term Outlook (Daily/Weekly)
Technical analysis shows a neutral signal for today, with the 1-week rating showing a sell signal, and the 1-month rating also showing sell.
TRUMP has been making higher highs and higher lows, which is evidence for the bulls in the short term; the price is in a tight range around key moving average levels, and momentum indicators are signaling strength before a minor pullback.
Medium-Term Outlook (Monthly)
TRUMP shows a clear bearish structure on monthly timeframes; the overall technical summary signals Sell, with both moving averages and indicators aligning with downside pressure—out of twelve key moving averages, nine point to Sell, while only three long-term averages show Buy signals, suggesting weak momentum despite isolated support at lower levels.
Analysts expect TRUMP to trade between $5.00 and $11.20 in 2026, depending on market liquidity, sentiment, and political momentum.
Risk Factors
Concentrated supply (80% held by Trump affiliates) creates asymmetric risk; recent transfers to exchanges could precede strategic selling, especially if the token fails to reclaim its $5.60 200-day EMA.
50M TRUMP tokens ($270M at $5.37) unlock on January 18 for team/founders; previous unlocks correlated with 15-30% price declines.
Trading conditions remain highly sensitive to headline risk and broader meme-coin flows, as price moves in Solana-based political tokens and shifts in overall crypto sentiment can quickly affect liquidity and volatility.
