XRP Maintains Momentum Amid Mixed Signals: Latest Developments for February 2026
XRP traded at $1.41 as of February 14, 2026, reflecting a 3.27% gain over the previous 24 hours and consolidating recent volatility. The token commands a $85.8 billion market capitalization—fourth largest by market cap—with $2.14 billion in 24-hour trading volume, demonstrating sustained institutional and retail interest despite a challenging year-to-date performance.
Price Action and Technical Recovery Signals
XRP gained 3.3% on February 13 as part of a broader cryptocurrency market rally, with Bitcoin advancing 3.84% during the same period. The token held critical support near $1.35–$1.40 throughout mid-February, with bulls attempting to reclaim the $1.40 level as a resistance-turned-support zone.
On-chain technical indicators present a nuanced picture. XRP's Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed higher lows between January 31 and February 11—a pattern historically preceding 28% rallies. More significantly, the MVRV-Z Score metric, which measures whether XRP is over or undervalued relative to fair value, remained in negative territory for nearly two weeks. This condition carries historical precedent: in July 2024, a similar reading of -0.13 preceded an XRP surge from $0.45 to $2.91 by December, suggesting potential for extended recovery if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
However, these bullish technical setups face headwinds from weakening on-chain conviction. Exchange net outflows collapsed 85% from 107 million tokens on February 8 to just 16 million by February 11, while long-term holder accumulation fell 60% during the same window—from 337 million XRP to 128 million. This divergence signals institutional hesitation despite favorable technical patterns.
Funding Rates Flash Capitulation Signals
XRP's perpetual funding rate hit -0.028% on February 13, marking the lowest level since April 2025. Negative funding rates indicate short positioning dominance and potential capitulation, historically preceding reversals. The last comparable funding rate environment in April 2025 preceded an 82% rally to $3.65, according to derivatives data.
Exchange balances, however, present a near-term headwind. Approximately 12.99 billion XRP tokens were held on exchanges as of mid-February—a level that could facilitate forced selling if price breaks below the $1.34 support zone. Liquidation data showed long-side exposure at $63.9 million on the one-day timeframe versus $51 million in shorts, creating vulnerability to cascading liquidations.
Institutional Adoption Accelerates
XRP ETF inflows remained a bright spot despite broader market weakness. The five U.S. XRP ETFs held cumulative net inflows of $1.23 billion as of February 12, significantly outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum products, which saw combined net outflows exceeding $400 million during the same period. Grayscale's XRP Mini Trust (GXRP) recorded $8.9 million in outflows on a single day—the first negative flow in weeks—though this represents a minor pullback within a broader inflow trend.
Ripple President Monica Long declared 2026 a turning point for XRP institutional adoption during the company's Community Day event held February 11–12. The virtual gathering, spanning three regional sessions across EMEA, Americas, and APAC time zones, featured CEO Brad Garlinghouse, XRPL co-creator David Schwartz, and representatives from Grayscale and Gemini. Central themes included regulated financial products, ETF expansion, wrapped XRP, DeFi applications, and XRP's expanding role in capital markets infrastructure.
Major Partnership with Aviva Investors
Ripple announced a significant partnership with Aviva Investors, the global asset management division of UK insurer Aviva plc, during Community Day. The collaboration aims to explore tokenization of traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger, marking Ripple's first partnership with a European investment manager and signaling deeper institutional push into tokenized finance. This development underscores Ripple's strategic pivot toward bridging traditional finance and blockchain-based infrastructure.
Custody and Banking Infrastructure Upgrade
A major custody platform upgrade announced February 9, 2026, integrated crypto custody and stablecoin payments into global banking infrastructure. This development addresses institutional concerns around security and operational integration, positioning XRP and the XRP Ledger as critical infrastructure for institutional capital flows.
Trading Volume and Regional Dominance
XRP dominated trading volume rankings on South Korean exchange Upbit on February 13, commanding a 10.27% share of the KRW market with 24-hour volume of $1.833 billion across the platform alone. Seven-day trading volume reached $4.11 billion, reflecting continued market interest despite price weakness and indicating strong regional demand, particularly in Asia.
Technical Support and Resistance Levels
Technical traders monitored key support at $1.30–$1.35, a zone coinciding with price activity dating back to August–October 2021. Resistance clusters emerged between $1.50 and $1.63, with the $1.50 level aligning with the 20-period Exponential Moving Average and serving as a critical psychological barrier. A sustained break above $1.50 would likely restore institutional confidence; failure to hold above $1.34 risked cascading liquidations toward $1.12.
Year-to-Date Performance and Regulatory Backdrop
XRP has shed approximately 26% year-to-date, tracking broader cryptocurrency market weakness since October 2025. However, the removal of long-standing regulatory uncertainty provided structural support for XRP's medium-term narrative. The SEC's formal dismissal of appeals in its enforcement action against Ripple, finalized in 2025, eliminated a major overhang affecting exchange access, institutional comfort, and product eligibility in key jurisdictions. Analysts noted that while short-term price behavior remained reactive to leverage and liquidity cycles, medium-term positioning increasingly reflected regulatory clarity and payments infrastructure developments rather than pure speculation.
Market Structure Summary
Metric
Value
Current Price
$1.41
24-Hour Change
+3.27%
Market Cap
$85.8 billion
Fully Diluted Valuation
$140.8 billion
24-Hour Volume
$2.14 billion
7-Day Change
-4.22%
Circulating Supply
60.9 billion XRP
Total Supply
99.99 billion XRP
Why is XRP price up today?
XRP Price Movement Analysis: February 14, 2026
Current Price and 24-Hour Performance
XRP is trading at $1.38–$1.41 USD, representing a +1.9% to +3.27% gain over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has also posted a modest +0.34% increase in the last hour, indicating sustained upward momentum. However, this daily strength masks a broader weakness: XRP has declined -4.22% over the past 7 days, meaning today's rally represents a recovery from earlier weekly losses rather than the start of a new sustained uptrend.
Market Capitalization and Volume:
Market cap: $83–$85.79 billion (maintaining #3–#4 global ranking)
24-hour trading volume: $2.14–$2.8 billion USD
Volume represents a 40%+ ratio to market cap, indicating solid liquidity, though volume declined 18–19% from the preceding 24-hour period
Key Drivers of Price Movement
XRP's price increase today stems from a confluence of institutional capital flows, regulatory tailwinds, and technical short-covering dynamics—each contributing distinct upward pressure.
1. Institutional ETF Inflows and Regulatory Momentum
The most significant driver is sustained institutional capital accumulation. U.S.-listed XRP ETFs accumulated $1.23 billion in cumulative net inflows as of February 13, a striking contrast to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which experienced net outflows exceeding $400 million during the same period. This divergence underscores selective institutional demand for XRP specifically, suggesting large capital allocators view XRP as undervalued relative to broader market conditions.
Regulatory developments amplified this institutional confidence. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's appointment to the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee on February 13 marked a significant milestone, signaling improved regulatory relationships and potential policy influence. This follows Ripple's successful resolution of its SEC lawsuit in March 2025, which had previously constrained institutional adoption. The appointment signals that regulatory risk—a major headwind for XRP throughout 2024–2025—is diminishing, making institutional deployment more feasible.
2. Strategic Partnership Announcement
Ripple announced a major partnership with Aviva Investors, the asset management arm of Aviva plc, during XRP Community Day (February 11–12, 2026). The collaboration aims to tokenize traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger, representing Ripple's first large-scale partnership with a European investment manager. This development is significant because it moves XRP's narrative from speculative asset to functional infrastructure for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization—a use case that appeals to institutional capital seeking yield and utility beyond price appreciation.
3. Technical Infrastructure Upgrade
The XRP Ledger activated the XLS-85 amendment on February 12, 2026, expanding native escrow functionality to all Trustline-based tokens and Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs). This upgrade enhances programmability and compliance features, positioning XRPL as infrastructure for regulated financial institutions. While the price impact remained muted as of February 13, the upgrade removes technical barriers to institutional capital deployment, particularly for compliance-heavy use cases.
4. Short Liquidation Cascade and Technical Squeeze
Derivatives data reveals a critical technical driver: $1.79M in short liquidations versus $684K in long liquidations over the 24-hour period—a 72.4% to 27.6% split favoring short liquidations. The largest single liquidation event ($1.60M) occurred on February 13 at 12:00 PM UTC. This significant short squeeze indicates that traders holding short positions were forced to cover as price rallied, creating self-reinforcing upward pressure. As shorts liquidate, their forced buying pushes price higher, triggering additional liquidations—a mechanical driver independent of fundamental sentiment.
Market Structure and Leverage Dynamics
Funding Rate: Neutral Bearish Pressure
XRP's funding rate stands at -0.0020% per 4-hour interval (annualized: -4.29%), indicating shorts are paying longs. This negative rate suggests mild bearish sentiment in perpetual futures, but the magnitude is modest—not extreme. Over the 24-hour period, cumulative funding was -0.0102%, with 4 negative periods against 2 positive ones. This neutral-to-slightly-bearish reading indicates the market lacks extreme leverage in either direction, reducing the risk of a sudden liquidation cascade that could amplify price movements unsustainably.
Open Interest: Stable Market Structure
XRP's open interest increased modestly by 1.87% ($42.23M) to $2.30B over 24 hours, with minimal volatility ($2.24B to $2.33B range). This stability indicates balanced market participation without explosive leverage accumulation, suggesting the price movement is driven by more fundamental shifts in sentiment rather than speculative leverage.
Positioning: Extreme Retail Bullishness
The long/short ratio on Binance shows 68.2% of accounts holding long positions versus 31.9% short—a 2.14 ratio representing extremely bullish crowd sentiment. This extreme positioning presents a contrarian bearish signal: when retail traders are this overwhelmingly bullish, historical patterns suggest vulnerability to sharp reversals. However, the stability of this ratio over 24 hours indicates conviction among longs, not panic buying.
Broader Market Context
Despite positive XRP-specific catalysts, the broader cryptocurrency market remains constrained by elevated global uncertainty. The World Uncertainty Index reached levels exceeding both the 2008–2009 financial crisis and pandemic peaks, limiting event-driven price momentum. Bitcoin trades at $68,770, and the broader crypto market is in Extreme Fear territory (Fear & Greed Index: 8).
This creates a paradox: while the overall market sentiment is pessimistic, XRP's specific derivatives structure shows bullish positioning and short-covering dynamics. This disconnect suggests XRP is outperforming due to technical factors and XRP-specific catalysts rather than broad market optimism. The macro headwinds currently outweigh the immediate impact of institutional announcements and partnership developments, requiring structural demand signals to materialize over time for sustained uptrend confirmation.
Technical Context
XRP consolidated around the $1.35–$1.40 support zone, a critical technical level coinciding with historical price activity from August–October 2021. Derivatives data reveals that long liquidations in the $1.30–$1.25 region have largely cleared, while significant short liquidation clusters remain between $1.50–$1.63, suggesting potential resistance above current levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved away from oversold territory, indicating temporary relief in selling pressure. However, the Awesome Oscillator remained negative despite printing green histogram bars, signaling that bearish momentum is slowing but bullish strength remains insufficient to establish a sustained uptrend.
Summary: Why XRP Is Up Today
XRP's 24-hour price increase reflects a multi-layered rally driven by institutional capital accumulation, regulatory de-risking, technical short-covering, and partnership announcements. The $1.23B in XRP ETF inflows, Garlinghouse's CFTC appointment, and the Aviva Investors partnership signal improving institutional adoption prospects. Mechanically, the $1.79M short liquidation cascade created forced buying pressure that amplified the move.
However, this rally occurs within a constrained macro environment (Extreme Fear, elevated global uncertainty) and faces contrarian headwinds from extreme retail bullishness. The 7-day decline of -4.22% indicates this is recovery, not a new uptrend. Sustained price appreciation will require the institutional catalysts to translate into structural demand, not just tactical positioning.
What is the market sentiment for XRP today?
XRP Market Sentiment Analysis – February 14, 2026
Overall Sentiment Assessment
XRP exhibits mixed-to-bearish market sentiment characterized by a critical divergence between retail trader positioning and underlying market structure. While short-term price momentum shows modest gains (+3.27% over 24 hours), this masks deeper structural weakness and extreme positioning imbalances that create elevated risk of sharp corrections. The asset trades in a state of tension between tactical buying interest and deteriorating fundamentals.
Price Action and Market Position
Current Trading Metrics:
Price: $1.41 USD
Market Cap: $85.79 billion (Rank #4)
24-hour Volume: $2.14 billion
Liquidity Score: 76.03/100 (strong)
Price Momentum Divergence:
The most telling aspect of current sentiment is the stark divergence between timeframes:
Timeframe
Change
Interpretation
1-hour
+0.34%
Minimal intraday movement
24-hour
+3.27%
Moderate daily gains
7-day
-4.22%
Weekly decline
YTD
-26%
Sustained downtrend
From ATH (July 2025)
-64%
Severe long-term deterioration
This pattern reveals tactical short-term buying pressure following a broader weekly decline, suggesting traders are attempting to establish positions near support levels. However, the limited conviction behind these gains—evidenced by minimal 1-hour movement and the overwhelming 7-day loss—indicates this bounce lacks staying power.
XRP has broken below all major moving averages (50-day EMA at $1.76, 100-day EMA at $1.97, 200-day EMA at $2.16), with all slopes pointing downward. Technical indicators reflect exhaustion: the RSI hovers near oversold levels (32–42.5 range), the MACD remains below its signal line with contracting histogram bars, and the Money Flow Index sits at 26.66—just above oversold boundaries with minimal buying conviction.
Derivatives Market: Extreme Retail Bullishness vs. Institutional Caution
The derivatives market reveals the core tension driving current sentiment:
Retail traders on Binance maintain 68.2% long positioning (2.14 long/short ratio), representing extremely bullish crowd sentiment well above the 65% threshold that historically signals excessive retail optimism. The 30-day average long percentage of 73.3% shows current positioning has moderated slightly from peak euphoria but remains dangerously skewed toward longs.
Contrarian Implication: This extreme long concentration leaves minimal dry powder for additional buying and maximum vulnerability to liquidation cascades. Historical patterns show such positioning typically precedes corrective moves as retail traders lack the capital to sustain rallies.
XRP's funding rate stands at -0.0020% per 8-hour period (annualized: -2.15%), indicating a balanced derivatives market with no extreme leverage in either direction. However, this neutral reading contradicts the extreme long positioning visible in spot markets, suggesting institutional derivatives traders maintain more balanced exposure than retail spot traders—a critical divergence.
The 30-day funding rate history shows 48 negative periods versus 42 positive periods, with rates remaining well within the -0.03% to +0.03% neutral band. This stability masks the underlying tension: while retail traders have piled into longs, institutional traders have not followed, instead maintaining hedged positions.
Open Interest: Significant Contraction Signals Weakening Conviction
XRP open interest has contracted 41.43% over 30 days, declining from $4.00B to $2.30B. This substantial reduction in outstanding derivatives contracts indicates:
Diminishing trader participation across the market
Weakening trend conviction among both bulls and bears
Capitulation rather than organized selling (falling OI + falling prices typically indicates existing longs closing rather than new shorts establishing bearish bets)
The 30-day average open interest of $3.01B demonstrates current levels represent the lower bound of recent activity, suggesting the market has already experienced significant position unwinding.
Liquidation Activity: Long-Dominated Cascade Risk
Over 30 days, XRP experienced $264.75M in total liquidations, with the largest single event reaching $45.51M on February 5, 2026. Critically, long liquidations comprise 63.8% of total liquidations, reflecting the vulnerability of extreme long positioning to adverse price movements.
Current 24-hour liquidation activity totals only $1.55K, suggesting the market has stabilized following the February 5 shock. However, the historical pattern of long-dominated liquidations combined with current extreme long concentration creates cascade risk: a sharp downward move could trigger substantial long liquidations, potentially accelerating price declines through a feedback loop.
Macro Sentiment Context: Extreme Fear Environment
The global Fear & Greed Index reading of 8 (Extreme Fear) establishes the broader sentiment backdrop. Over the past 30 days, the index has averaged 21 (Extreme Fear), with the lowest reading of 5 occurring at $70,103 BTC price.
Critical Contradiction: Extreme macro fear paired with extreme retail bullishness in XRP creates a divergence that historically resolves through either:
Rapid retail capitulation and liquidations, or
A sharp rally that validates retail positioning and triggers short covering
The current environment suggests the market is priced for the first scenario. Bitcoin dominance has risen to 59%, altcoin derivatives volumes have contracted 49%, and liquidations across the market total $7.6 million in BTC alone. XRP's higher beta relative to Bitcoin amplifies vulnerability during broad de-risking phases.
Institutional Sentiment: Cautious Positioning Despite Structural Support
ETF Dynamics:
XRP spot ETFs have accumulated $1.07–$1.21 billion in total inflows, with sustained inflows outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF activity. This structural support from institutional capital provides a floor beneath price action and signals institutional confidence despite near-term weakness.
However, recent inflow velocity has slowed dramatically to approximately $3 million per day from peaks of $40 million daily, suggesting waning institutional demand momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF flows show a 30-day net outflow of $2.29B (18 negative flow days versus 12 positive days), indicating institutional capital has been exiting spot positions broadly—creating a headwind against retail bullish sentiment.
Whale Activity:
Recent whale movements signal distribution at resistance levels. The transfer of 29.5 million XRP to Coinbase suggests potential selling pressure, capping recovery attempts and contradicting bullish narratives.
On-Chain Signals: Mixed and Conflicting
On-chain metrics present a genuinely mixed picture:
Bullish Signals:
XRP's active addresses recently rose above a key level that has historically preceded price rallies
Santiment data suggests this signal previously preceded moves to $3.30 and $3.60
The MVRV-Z Score has remained in negative territory for nearly two weeks, a pattern that has preceded sustained recoveries in past cycles
Bearish Signals:
XRP exchange reserves increased to approximately 12.99 billion tokens, indicating rising selling pressure as investors transfer holdings to exchanges
This accumulation of exchange-held XRP increases available supply for sale and contradicts the bullish implications of active address metrics
The divergence between on-chain bullish signals and exchange inflows suggests institutional/whale distribution is offsetting retail accumulation
Technical Analysis: Oversold but Lacking Conviction
Resistance: $1.40–$1.47 (current price near lower bound)
Extended Recovery Targets: $1.60–$1.80 (contingent on volume confirmation)
Technical Deterioration:
The RSI near oversold levels (32–42.5) indicates exhaustion in selling pressure but insufficient buying conviction to sustain recovery. The Money Flow Index at 26.66 shows only marginal buying interest and no aggressive accumulation. Trading volumes have declined 6–18% over recent sessions, reflecting cautious seller dominance.
Downside Risk: Technical analysis suggests XRP may test the $1.15 support level before stabilizing, with potential downside extension to $0.70 if this critical zone fails.
Fundamental and Regulatory Backdrop
Positive Developments:
The SEC's joint stipulation to dismiss appeals in the XRP litigation removes a long-standing overhang constraining institutional participation
Bipartisan lawmakers have confirmed a January markup for the Clarity Act, which would classify XRP as a non-security commodity under CFTC oversight
Ripple's ecosystem developments include teased XRPL-native lending protocols and partnerships with traditional finance entities (AMINA Bank, Aviva Investors, LMAX Group)
XRP Community Day 2026 (February 11) generated event-driven optimism with announcements of institutional adoption narratives
Limitation: These developments require time to materialize into tangible demand, and their near-term price impact remains subordinate to macro risk sentiment. The February 11 event generated only temporary optimism, quickly overwhelmed by broader macro uncertainty.
Recent Sentiment Shifts and Inflection Points
February 5 Liquidation Event ($45.51M): This represents a significant sentiment inflection point, suggesting a sharp downward move triggered substantial long position closures. The subsequent stabilization in funding rates and modest sentiment recovery indicates the market has absorbed that shock, though the underlying extreme long positioning remains unresolved.
7-Day Sentiment Stability: The 7-day period shows stable sentiment (+3 points on Fear & Greed Index) despite a -1.90% price decline, indicating sentiment has not deteriorated as sharply as price action might suggest. This stability masks the underlying tension between retail bullishness and structural market deterioration (falling open interest, long liquidations, institutional outflows).
Social Media and Community Sentiment
Data Limitation: Real-time social media sentiment analysis from X.com (Twitter) could not be completed due to rate limiting on search functionality. However, available community discussions reflect:
Cautious optimism tempered by macro headwinds following the XRP Community Day 2026 announcements
Acknowledgment of technical oversold setup and potential for recovery among retail traders
Heavy depression in broader sentiment reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (5–29 range: Extreme Fear to Fear)
Reddit and social discussions recognize the oversold conditions but lack conviction regarding sustained recovery
Sentiment Summary: Structural Vulnerability Masked by Tactical Gains
Sentiment Indicator
Reading
Implication
Retail Long Positioning
68.2% (Extreme)
Cascade liquidation risk
Funding Rates
-0.0020% (Neutral)
Institutional caution vs. retail bullishness
Open Interest
-41.43% (30-day)
Weakening conviction, capitulation
Macro Fear & Greed
8 (Extreme Fear)
Risk-off environment favors downside
Institutional ETF Flows
Slowing ($3M/day)
Waning institutional demand
Technical RSI
32–42.5 (Oversold)
Exhaustion but no conviction
Price Momentum
+3.27% (24h), -4.22% (7d)
Tactical bounce within downtrend
Conclusion
XRP's current market sentiment reflects a market in transition between retail euphoria and potential correction. The positive 24-hour performance (+3.27%) masks deeper structural weakness: extreme retail long positioning (68.2%) contradicts neutral funding rates and falling open interest, creating structural vulnerability to sharp downward moves. The macro environment of extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index: 8) provides contrarian context, yet institutional outflows and slowing ETF inflows suggest professional traders are not aggressively accumulating at these levels.
The combination of long-dominated liquidation history, extreme retail bullishness, deteriorating market structure (falling open interest), and institutional caution suggests elevated risk of sharp downward moves that could trigger cascading long liquidations. While on-chain signals flash potential buy opportunities and regulatory clarity provides medium-term support, near-term price action remains vulnerable to macro de-risking and retail position unwinding.
The critical variable determining sentiment direction is whether macro conditions stabilize and whether institutional ETF inflows reaccelerate. Without these catalysts, the current tactical bounce appears likely to fail, testing critical support at $1.15 and potentially extending to $0.70.
XRP Technical Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels?
XRP Technical Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels
Current Market Position
XRP is trading at $1.41 USD as of mid-February 2026, representing a 62% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. The token ranks #4 by market capitalization at $85.79 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.14 billion and exceptionally low volatility (7.00/100). Despite recent weakness, XRP maintains strong liquidity metrics (76.03/100) and a low risk score (22.42/100), indicating structural market stability beneath current price action.
Recent Price Performance
1-Hour: +0.34%
24-Hour: +3.27%
7-Day: -4.22%
The short-term momentum shows positive intraday movement, though the weekly perspective reveals consolidation within a broader downtrend. This divergence between hourly strength and weekly weakness signals a market in transition, with price action compressed between competing forces.
Technical Indicators Analysis
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
XRP's RSI presents a critical inflection point across multiple timeframes:
Daily Timeframe: RSI sits at 30–35, indicating oversold conditions—a historically significant level that often precedes technical rebounds
4-Hour & Hourly Timeframes: RSI ranges between 50–56, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish momentum on shorter timeframes
Bullish Divergence Signal: Between January 31 and February 11, price made lower lows while RSI formed higher lows—a pattern that historically preceded a 28% rally in early January 2026 and an 82% rally from $1.60 to $3.65 in April–July 2025
The divergence pattern is particularly significant because it indicates diminishing downside momentum despite continued price weakness. This suggests selling pressure is exhausting, creating potential conditions for stabilization or reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD reveals a market in transition between bearish and bullish phases:
Daily Chart: MACD remains below the signal line and under the zero mark, confirming bearish momentum
Histogram Contraction: Red histogram bars are visibly contracting, indicating that downside momentum is fading—a critical signal of trend exhaustion
Pending Bullish Crossover: MACD is positioned to cross above its signal line, which would represent the first bullish confirmation for a potential recovery phase
4-Hour Chart: MACD shows early signs of bullish setup with potential crossover formation
Current MACD Value: Approximately -0.11 to 0.01, reflecting the transitional phase between bearish and bullish conditions
The contraction in histogram bars combined with proximity to a bullish crossover suggests the market is preparing for a directional move, though confirmation requires price action above key resistance levels.
Moving Averages
All major moving averages are sloping downward, reinforcing the established bearish structure, yet their positioning relative to price reveals important nuances:
Moving Average
Value
Status
Implication
20-Period EMA
$2.30
Downward slope
Key short-term pivot; reclaiming this level signals momentum reversal
50-Day EMA
$1.76–$1.80
Downward slope
Primary resistance; acts as barrier to sustained recovery
100-Day EMA
$1.97
Downward slope
Secondary resistance zone
200-Day EMA
$2.16–$2.18
Downward slope
Major structural resistance; descending trendline from $3.66 ATH
50-Week MA
Rising
Upward slope
Contrasts with daily weakness; suggests longer-term bullish structure
Key Insight: The divergence between daily moving averages (all bearish) and weekly moving averages (both rising) indicates that the current daily weakness may represent a correction within a longer-term uptrend structure. This is a crucial distinction for medium-term traders.
Key Support Levels
The support structure reveals multiple zones where institutional buying has historically emerged and where liquidation clustering indicates vulnerability:
Primary Support: $1.35
Current Status: Immediate intraday support; multiple tests in recent sessions
Significance: Largest long liquidation cluster; critical pivot for maintaining rebound structure
Technical Basis: Recent consolidation floor; represents the lower boundary of the current trading range
Implication: Break below this level would invalidate the rebound structure and trigger cascading long liquidations toward $1.12–$1.15
Secondary Support: $1.27–$1.30
Historical Basis: October 10, 2025 low; major psychological support level
Liquidation Data: Significant long liquidation concentration at this zone
Implication: If $1.35 fails, this zone represents the next technical floor before deeper capitulation
Tertiary Support: $1.15–$1.20
Historical Significance: February 5–6 correction low; major support with significant demand cluster
Upside Potential: If held, represents 56% upside potential to $1.80 resistance
Structural Importance: Represents a key technical level where institutional capital may re-enter
Implication: Would require sustained institutional accumulation and macro tailwinds to approach
Chart Patterns & Technical Structure
Symmetrical Triangle Formation (Primary Pattern)
XRP has been consolidating within a contracting symmetrical triangle since July 2025, defined by lower highs and higher lows. This pattern is approaching its apex in February 2026—a critical juncture that typically precedes significant volatility expansion.
Pattern Characteristics:
Lower Highs: Declining resistance line from $3.65 (July) → $2.74 (November) → $2.13 (January)
Higher Lows: Rising support line from $1.15 (February 2025) → $1.27 (October) → $1.35 (February 2026)
Apex Timing: Pattern converges in late February 2026, suggesting imminent breakout
Historical Precedent: Similar triangle formations have preceded 50–70% rallies, though the direction depends on breakout confirmation. The pattern itself is neutral; the breakout direction determines the outcome.
Breakout Requirements:
Bullish Breakout: Sustained close above $1.50 on expanding volume; would target $1.76–$1.80, then $2.06–$2.13
Bearish Breakout: Close below $1.34 on volume; would target $1.12–$1.15, then $0.85–$0.95
Ascending Channel (Monthly Timeframe)
On the monthly chart, XRP trades within a long-term ascending channel established over nine years. This structural pattern provides important context:
Lower Boundary: $0.85–$0.95 (nine-year support)
Upper Boundary: Descending trendline from $3.66 ATH
Current Position: Mid-channel, suggesting room for both upside and downside within the broader structure
Implication: Even in a bearish scenario, the nine-year channel lower boundary at $0.85–$0.95 provides institutional support
Bullish Divergence (12-Hour Timeframe)
Between January 31 and February 11, XRP formed a bullish divergence—a pattern where price made lower lows while RSI formed higher lows. This is a critical reversal signal:
Historical Precedent: Similar divergence preceded a 28% rally in early January 2026 and an 82% rally from $1.60 to $3.65 in April–July 2025
Current Status: Divergence is in place; awaiting price confirmation above $1.50
Caveat: On-chain data does not yet confirm bullish conviction; buying pressure has collapsed 85%, suggesting institutional participation is weak
Swing Failure Pattern (Daily Timeframe)
The daily chart shows a swing failure pattern following sell-side liquidity collection, with bullish momentum emerging. If this structure holds:
Target Zone: $1.83 order block zone
Confirmation: Requires sustained move above $1.50 with volume expansion
Implication: Suggests potential for 30% rally if pattern completes
Three Black Crows Pattern (Weekly)
A three black crows continuation pattern formed between $2.74 and $2.06, indicating sustained bearish pressure on the weekly timeframe. This pattern suggests the downtrend has further to run unless broken by strong bullish confirmation.
Trading Volume Analysis
Volume Metrics
Daily Volume: $2.14–$2.59 billion (down 18.51% from previous day as of February 13)
7-Day Volume: $4.11 billion, with largest concentration on South Korea's Upbit exchange
The volume profile reveals critical insights into market structure:
Market Redistribution vs. Capitulation: High volume accompanied by price decline indicates market redistribution rather than capitulation. This means strong hands are accumulating while weak hands are selling—a bullish signal beneath the surface.
Muted Consolidation: Volume has remained muted throughout the consolidation phase, suggesting accumulation beneath the surface rather than active distribution. This is consistent with institutional positioning ahead of a move.
Potential supply shock; though demand destruction outpaces supply reduction
XRP ETF Inflows
$82M last week
Institutional support despite spot market weakness
Bitcoin ETF Outflows
$500M last week
Contrasts with XRP; suggests selective institutional interest in XRP
Key Insight: The 85% collapse in exchange outflows is concerning for near-term bullish momentum, as it indicates traders are closing positions rather than accumulating. However, the seven-year low in exchange reserves suggests potential supply constraints if demand re-emerges.
Derivatives Market Analysis
Futures Open Interest
Current Level: $2.30–$2.50 billion
30-Day Change: Down 41.48% from $4.00 billion
Historical Context: Down 73% from July 2025 peak of $10.94 billion
Implication: Persistent deleveraging as traders abandon exposure following liquidation cascades; reduced liquidity and heightened vulnerability to sharp moves
The 41% decline in open interest is the most critical technical signal from the derivatives market. This metric indicates:
Declining participation across all leverage levels
Trend weakness despite extreme long positioning
Potential capitulation as traders exit positions ahead of further moves
Funding Rates
Current Rate: -0.028% per 8-hour period (annualized: -2.15%)
30-Day Pattern: 48 negative vs. 42 positive periods
Historical Context: 10-month low as of February 13; last time this level was hit (April 2025), XRP rallied 82% from $1.60 to $3.65 by July
Interpretation: Deeply negative funding indicates extreme bearish positioning; short sellers dominate and are paying to maintain positions. This is a contrarian bullish signal, as historically extreme funding rates precede reversals. However, the caveat is that broader macro conditions were more supportive in April 2025 than they are currently.
Liquidation Levels
24-Hour Liquidation Map:
Short Liquidations: $1.79M (72.4% of total)
Long Liquidations: $685K (27.6% of total)
Total: $2.48M
7-Day Liquidation Data:
Total Liquidated: $37.59M
Largest Single Event: $4.18M on February 7, 2026
Implication: Heavy short liquidations suggest recent price strength has squeezed bearish positions; support may exist where shorts were forced to cover
Medium-Term Liquidation Map (30-Day):
Short Liquidations: ~$148M (dominant positioning)
Long Liquidations: ~$83M
Implication: Traders positioned defensively; long positions vulnerable to cascading liquidations on further downside
Critical Liquidation Zones:
$1.34–$1.40: Largest long liquidation cluster; break below could trigger cascade toward $1.12
$1.50–$1.54: Critical breakout level; aligns with 20-period EMA; psychological barrier
Long/Short Positioning
Binance Long/Short Ratio: 68.2% longs vs. 31.8% shorts (2.14 ratio)
30-Day Average: 73.3% longs
Interpretation:Extremely bullish crowd sentiment; historically, when retail positioning becomes this skewed toward one direction, it often precedes reversals
Contrarian Signal: The extreme long bias combined with falling open interest and Extreme Fear sentiment (8/100) creates a setup where price could move in either direction with limited resistance from new leverage entering the market.
Market Sentiment & On-Chain Signals
Fear & Greed Index
Current Level: 8/100 (Extreme Fear)
30-Day Average: 21 (Sustained bearish pressure)
Bitcoin Context: Trading at $68,770 after recent high of $95,669
Implication: Extreme Fear sentiment provides a contrarian floor for price action; historically, extreme fear precedes relief bounces
On-Chain Metrics
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Around 1.0, indicating coins changing hands at break-even. This is a typical zone where weaker holders exit and stronger holders accumulate—a bullish signal for medium-term positioning.
MVRV-Z Score: Remained in negative territory for nearly two weeks, historically preceding sustained recoveries. This metric suggests the market is oversold from a valuation perspective.
Active Addresses: Recently rose above a key level that historically preceded strong rallies (last signal in June 2025 preceded rally to $3.60). Increasing on-chain activity suggests growing institutional interest despite spot market weakness.
Timeframe-Specific Analysis
Hourly Timeframe
Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish
Key Levels: $1.35 support, $1.40–$1.45 resistance
Indicator Status: MACD in bearish zone; RSI below 50
Volatility: Elevated; expect sharp moves on breakouts
Implication: Suitable for range-trading between $1.35–$1.45; breakout above $1.45 would signal shift toward daily recovery
Daily Timeframe
Bias: Bearish with potential for stabilization
Structure: Price below all major moving averages; MACD poised to cross above signal line
Critical Zone: $1.34–$1.40 (largest long liquidation cluster; break below could trigger cascade)
Recovery Requirement: Sustained move above $1.50 needed to restore confidence and attract long-term buyers
Key Indicator: RSI divergence suggests momentum is fading; MACD contraction indicates selling pressure is exhausting
Implication: Daily timeframe is the critical decision point; break above $1.50 would signal shift toward recovery
Weekly Timeframe
Bias: Bullish (contrasts sharply with daily weakness)
Moving Averages: 50-week MA rising; 200-week MA rising since July 27, 2025
Chart Pattern: Ascending channel with nine-year support at $0.85–$0.95
Implication: Longer-term structure remains constructive despite current daily deterioration; suggests current weakness is a correction within a broader uptrend
Support: 200-week MA provides underlying support for sustained trend
Short-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
Base Case: Consolidation with Neutral Bias
XRP remains trapped between improving technical momentum (RSI divergence, MACD contraction, bullish divergence) and deteriorating on-chain conviction (85% collapse in buying pressure, 60% decline in long-term holder accumulation). The token is consolidating in a tight range with the following scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 40%)
Trigger: Sustained move above $1.50 on expanding volume
Target: $1.76–$1.80 (50-day EMA), then $2.06–$2.13 (descending trendline)
Catalyst: Institutional participation through XRP ETFs, regulatory clarity, or broader crypto market recovery
Implication: Would represent 25–50% upside from current levels
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 35%)
Trigger: Break below $1.34 on volume
Target: $1.12–$1.15 (February 6 low), then $1.00 (psychological level)
Confirmation: Daily close below $1.34 + liquidation cascade
Catalyst: Continued macro weakness, Fed hawkishness, or broader crypto market deterioration
Implication: Would represent 20–30% downside from current levels
Neutral/Range-Bound Scenario (Probability: 25%)
Structure: Consolidation between $1.35–$1.50 as symmetrical triangle apex approaches
Duration: Could persist until broader market sentiment stabilizes or a clear catalyst emerges
Implication: Suitable for range traders; breakout confirmation required for directional move
Key Confirmation Needed
The critical signal for near-term direction is a MACD crossover above signal line combined with daily close above $1.50 on expanding volume. This would represent the first bullish confirmation and would likely attract stronger institutional buying.
Medium-Term Outlook (4–8 Weeks)
Bearish Structure Intact, But Reversal Conditions Forming
Despite on-chain signals flashing "buy" at current levels (SOPR at 1.0, MVRV-Z negative, active addresses rising), the broader technical structure remains bearish. Medium-term targets depend on macro conditions and institutional participation:
Base Case: Consolidation Within $1.00–$1.60 Range (Probability: 45%)
Derivatives Market: Open interest stabilization and recovery would signal institutional re-entry
Risk Factors & Market Vulnerabilities
Leverage Unwinds
$6 billion in XRP positions have been liquidated year-to-date; the derivatives market remains vulnerable to cascading liquidations if support breaks. The 41% decline in open interest suggests traders are already reducing exposure, but further deleveraging could accelerate downside moves.
Institutional Conviction Weakness
ETF flows reversed from $17 million inflows (Friday) to $405,000 outflows (Monday), indicating fragile conviction. The 85% collapse in exchange outflows and 60% decline in long-term holder accumulation suggest institutional capital is not yet committed to recovery.
Macro Headwinds
Bitcoin weakness ($63,000–$67,000 range), Fed hawkishness, and tariff uncertainty weigh on risk appetite. XRP's correlation with Bitcoin remains high; broader crypto market weakness would likely extend downside pressure.
Catalyst Exhaustion
SEC lawsuit resolved, ETFs launched, regulatory approvals obtained—all anticipated catalysts have already been priced in. No obvious next driver exists; market is waiting for new fundamental developments.
Supply Pressure
Ripple's 300 million monthly XRP releases create $480 million structural selling at current prices ($1.41). This represents a headwind to price appreciation unless demand growth exceeds supply growth.
Extreme Long Positioning
The 68.2% long/short ratio on Binance represents extremely bullish crowd sentiment. Historically, when retail positioning becomes this skewed, it often precedes reversals. The extreme long bias combined with falling open interest creates vulnerability to profit-taking.
Summary: Key Levels & Trading Implications
Critical Support Levels (In Order of Importance)
$1.35 – Immediate support; largest long liquidation cluster
$1.27–$1.30 – October 2025 low; secondary support
$1.15–$1.20 – February 2026 low; major support with demand cluster
$0.85–$0.95 – Nine-year channel support; institutional entry zone
Critical Resistance Levels (In Order of Importance)
$1.50 – 20-period EMA; critical breakout level
$1.53–$1.55 – Heavy resistance band; previous bounce stall
$1.76–$1.80 – 50-day EMA; major technical barrier
$2.06–$2.13 – Descending trendline from ATH; major structural resistance
Actionable Insights
For Bullish Traders:
Watch for sustained close above $1.50 on expanding volume
