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Solana

Solana

SOL·82.1
-6%

Solana (SOL) Daily Market Analysis

By CoinStats AI

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What is the latest news for SOL?

Here's the latest news for Solana (SOL):

📊 Current Market Status

  • Price: Trading around $83-87 (down ~66% from its $300 all-time high in January 2025)
  • Market Cap: Approximately $48-72 billion
  • Recent Activity: Significant exchange outflows (1.07M SOL withdrawn in 72 hours) and ETF outflows ($11.9M)

🔥 Major Recent Developments

1. Strategic Shift: Meme Coins → Stablecoins

This is the biggest story right now. Standard Chartered analysis reveals Solana is pivoting from meme coin speculation to becoming the backbone for stablecoin micropayments:

  • Stablecoin transaction volume on Solana now outpaces Ethereum
  • Average transaction size: just 6 cents (thanks to sub-1-cent gas fees)
  • Nearly 50% of protocol fees previously came from meme coins—now shifting to sustainable payment infrastructure

2. Institutional Partnerships

  • Sharps Technology + BitGo (Feb 5): Institutional custody, SOL staking, and OTC trading services
  • Hanwha Asset Management: Partnership with Solana Foundation for ETPs and institutional education
  • Visa Integration: Processing USDC stablecoin transactions on Solana (pilot launched Nov 2025)

3. Network Growth

  • Active addresses nearly doubled: 2.5M → 4.8M in recent weeks
  • SOL Strategies milestones: 31,000+ wallets, 4M SOL under delegation
  • Firedancer validator client: Improving network stability and preventing outages

4. ETF Developments

  • Multiple spot ETF applications pending with SEC
  • Bitwise BSOL (staking ETF) has captured 78% of all SOL ETF inflows since October 2025
  • ETFs now hold over 1% of total SOL supply

📈 Price Predictions

2026 Outlook:

  • Bullish: $250 (Standard Chartered, Motley Fool predicts 187% gain)
  • Moderate: $149-169
  • Bearish: $128-139

Long-term (2030): $500-$2,000 range, driven by stablecoin payment adoption

⚠️ Current Challenges

  • Lost key support at $98-100; next support at $78
  • Regulatory uncertainty delaying ETF approvals
  • Market pressure from 4-month decline

💡 Bottom Line

Solana is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a speculative meme coin platform to serious payment infrastructure. The combination of institutional adoption, Visa integration, and dominance in stablecoin transactions positions it as a potential "Ethereum killer" for real-world payments—despite current price weakness.

Why is SOL price down today?

Why SOL is Down Today (February 9, 2026)

Solana is experiencing a modest 0.42% decline today, but this is part of a much larger story—SOL has crashed over 36% in the past week and is down 72% from its January 2025 peak. Here's what's driving the decline:


🔴 Primary Drivers

1. Massive Liquidation Cascade

  • $7.31M liquidated in 24 hours (60% long positions)
  • $295M in long liquidations over 7 days
  • Largest single liquidation: $3.16M on Feb 9
  • This creates a death spiral: price drops → overleveraged longs liquidated → more selling → further decline

2. Technical Breakdown

  • SOL broke a head-and-shoulders pattern on Jan 30, triggering algorithmic selling
  • Lost critical support at $100 psychological level and the 200-week moving average
  • Fell to a 26-month low of $67 on Feb 6
  • Analysts warn of potential further decline to $50-55 (or even $30 in extreme scenarios)

3. Step Finance Security Breach

  • $29-30M in SOL stolen on Feb 1 when Step Finance's wallet was hacked
  • 261,000 SOL tokens unstaked and moved by attackers
  • Fueled immediate FUD and selling pressure across the ecosystem

4. ETF Outflows & Institutional Selling

  • US Solana ETFs recorded $12M in outflows on Feb 7 (largest on record)
  • Open interest plummeted 40% from peak ($8.8B → $5.27B), a $3.6B drop
  • Signals waning institutional conviction and leverage unwinding

5. Broader Crypto Market Meltdown

  • Bitcoin: -24% (from $78.7K to $60K)
  • Ethereum: -28% (from $2,445 to $1,750)
  • SOL: -36% (worst performer among top 10)
  • Fear & Greed Index: 10 (Extreme Fear)
  • Described as a "100+ year memorable market implosion" affecting all asset classes

6. Leadership Drama

  • Binance's CZ unfollowed Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko
  • Founder criticized memecoins (ironically a key SOL ecosystem driver)
  • Community confidence shaken by internal tensions

📊 Market Structure Analysis

Bearish Signals:

  • Negative funding rates (-0.0095% per 4h) = shorts paying longs
  • 38 out of 42 periods negative over 7 days
  • Falling open interest + falling price = weak decline/exhaustion

Contrarian Bullish Signals:

  • 71.2% of traders are LONG despite the decline (extreme positioning)
  • Extreme Fear (10/100) historically precedes reversals
  • All-time high daily transactions despite price crash
  • 68%+ staking ratio locking up supply
  • Whale accumulations (100K+ SOL being staked)

🎯 Bottom Line

Today's 0.42% decline is a continuation of a brutal 7-day selloff driven by:

  1. Liquidation cascades of overleveraged longs
  2. Technical breakdown triggering algorithmic selling
  3. Security breach FUD from Step Finance hack
  4. Macro market weakness (Bitcoin leading the decline)
  5. Institutional outflows from ETFs

However, the extreme positioning (71% long), extreme fear sentiment, and strong on-chain fundamentals suggest this could be a capitulation bottom rather than the start of a new downtrend. Critical support at $75-78 is being closely watched—holding this level could signal stabilization.

Key levels to watch:

  • Support: $75-78 (current), $67 (recent low), $50-55 (bearish target)
  • Resistance: $100 (psychological level), $120 (recent high)

The network itself is operating normally with no technical issues—this is purely a market-driven decline, not a fundamental failure of Solana's technology.

What is the market sentiment for SOL today?

Based on comprehensive analysis from multiple sources, here's the current market sentiment for Solana (SOL) today:

🎯 Overall Sentiment: BEARISH with Contrarian Opportunity Signals


Current Market Status

Price & Performance:

  • Current Price: $84-86 USD
  • 24h Change: -0.42% to -4.37% (depending on timeframe)
  • 7-Day Performance: -16.84% ↓
  • Market Cap: $49.02 Billion (#7 ranking)
  • 24h Volume: $5.12 Billion

📉 Bearish Indicators

1. Technical Breakdown

  • SOL trapped in a descending channel with lower highs and lower lows
  • Broken below key support at $100
  • RSI at 29.5 (most oversold among major cryptocurrencies)
  • Bearish MACD crossovers across multiple timeframes
  • Critical support at $80-85; breakdown could trigger drops to $50-60

2. Derivatives Market Pressure

  • Negative funding rate (-0.0095% per 4h / -20.81% annualized) - shorts are being paid
  • $7.31M liquidations in 24h, with 60% being long positions
  • Open Interest down 17.66% (from $6.40B to $5.27B) - traders exiting positions
  • Declining leverage suggests weakening trend momentum

3. Institutional Outflows

  • Solana Spot ETFs saw $11.9M in net outflows - the second-largest daily exodus since tracking began
  • Suggests institutional caution in the short term

4. Social Sentiment

  • Bearish posts garnering higher engagement on X.com
  • Traders emphasizing risk management and warning of further downside
  • Fear dominates discussions with targets of $40-60 being discussed

🟢 Contrarian Bullish Signals

1. Extreme Oversold Conditions

  • Fear & Greed Index: 10/100 (Extreme Fear) - historically precedes capitulation bottoms
  • RSI below 30 suggests selling pressure may be exhausting
  • 30% bounce from recent lows shows dip-buying activity

2. On-Chain Strength (Major Divergence)

  • 148M+ daily non-vote transactions (all-time high)
  • #1 ranking across all chains in both DEX volume and app revenue
  • 82% on-chain buyer conviction ratio - strong accumulation happening
  • 1.077M SOL withdrawn from exchanges in 72 hours (reducing sell pressure)
  • Spot Taker CVD decisively buyer-dominant - aggressive market buys outweigh sells

3. Retail Positioning (Contrarian Signal)

  • 71.2% of traders are long vs 28.8% short (2.47 ratio)
  • Extreme retail bullishness typically signals a top, BUT combined with extreme fear, this suggests capitulation phase where smart money accumulates

4. Ecosystem Momentum

Despite price weakness, development activity is accelerating:

  • AI Agent Hackathon launched today ($100K in prizes)
  • Sushi DEX officially launched on Solana (Feb 9)
  • Matrixdock deployed tokenized gold (XAUm) on Solana (5 hours ago)
  • Polymarket integrated with $35M investment
  • Active addresses spiked 115% driven by AI/memecoin activity
  • New institutional trading infrastructure launched

💡 What This Means for You

Short-term (Days to Weeks): BEARISH

  • Price likely to remain under pressure
  • Watch $80-85 support - if broken, $50-60 becomes realistic
  • Relief bounces to $90-100 may be selling opportunities
  • High volatility expected

Medium-term (Weeks to Months): ACCUMULATION ZONE

  • Extreme fear + declining OI + oversold RSI = classic capitulation setup
  • Smart money appears to be positioning (exchange outflows, buyer dominance)
  • Risk/reward improving for conviction holders
  • Need to reclaim $100-120 for bullish reversal confirmation

Long-term (Months+): FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG

  • Record-breaking on-chain metrics show real usage
  • Institutional adoption continuing despite price weakness
  • Standard Chartered projects $2,000 by 2030
  • Disconnect between price and fundamentals could resolve upward

🎬 Bottom Line

Today's sentiment is a classic "fear vs. fundamentals" divergence. The market is pricing in maximum pessimism while the network is hitting all-time highs in activity. This is either:

  1. A major accumulation opportunity for long-term believers (if fundamentals eventually drive price)
  2. A value trap if technical weakness continues to dominate

For traders: Respect the bearish structure; wait for $100+ reclaim before turning bullish.

For investors: This is a "show me your conviction" moment - strong fundamentals at oversold prices, but requires patience and risk management.

Key catalyst to watch: A capitulation spike in liquidations or Fear Index dropping to single digits could mark the bottom.

SOL Technical Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels?

SOL Technical Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels

Based on comprehensive market data, derivatives analysis, and current technical indicators, here's your complete technical analysis for Solana as of February 10, 2026.


📊 CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT

MetricValueStatus
Current Price$86.29Down 66% from ATH ($294)
24h Change-0.42%Consolidating
7-Day Change-16.92%⚠️ Significant downtrend
Market Cap$48.97BRank #7
24h Volume$5.12BStrong liquidity
Technical Sentiment90% BearishExtreme pessimism

🔴 KEY SUPPORT LEVELS

Immediate Support Zones

LevelDistanceStrengthTechnical Basis
$85.00 - $85.50-0.8% to -1.5%🟡 ModerateJanuary 2024 lows, current consolidation floor
$82.00 - $83.00-5% to -7%🟠 StrongSecondary support from 2024 structure
$78.93-9%🔴 CriticalJanuary 2024 trough; long-term weekly demand

Major Support Zones

LevelDistanceStrengthTechnical Basis
$75.00 - $78.00-13% to -15%🔴 CriticalMajor historical support; last defense before capitulation
$70.00 - $60.00-19% to -30%🔴 ExtremeExtended downside if $78 breaks
$48.00 - $50.00-44% to -42%🔴 DeepHead & Shoulders pattern target; historical cycle lows

Derivatives-Based Support

  • $4.59B OI Floor: Represents the 30-day low in open interest—capitulation zone where remaining longs are highly committed
  • $63.68M Liquidation Zone: Major cascade event on Jan 31, 2026 likely created local bottom

🟢 KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS

Immediate Resistance Zones

LevelDistanceStrengthTechnical Basis
$87.50 - $88.00+1% to +2%🟡 WeakCurrent consolidation ceiling
$90.00 - $92.00+4% to +6%🟠 ModeratePsychological level; short-term recovery target
$95.33 - $93.07+8% to +10%🟠 StrongMajor support zone (now resistance); Feb 2024 & April 2025 lows

Major Resistance Zones

LevelDistanceStrengthTechnical Basis
$100.00+16%🔴 CriticalPsychological barrier; former monthly support
$106.53+23%🔴 CriticalFeb 1, 2026 high; must break for bullish reversal
$116.94 - $120.00+35% to +39%🔴 MajorDecember 2025 low; rectangle breakdown level
$133.73 - $150.00+55% to +74%🔴 ExtremeNov-Dec 2025 lows; trend reversal confirmation

Derivatives-Based Resistance

  • $9.16B OI Peak: Maximum leverage concentration; overleveraged longs liquidated here—strong resistance until cleared

📉 BEARISH CHART PATTERNS (ACTIVE)

1. Head & Shoulders (Confirmed) ⚠️

  • Status: Confirmed on monthly chart
  • Target: $50 or lower
  • Implication: Classic topping pattern suggesting major downtrend continuation

2. Falling Trend Channel

  • Status: Active in medium-long term
  • Signal: Increasing pessimism and lower highs/lower lows

3. Rectangle Breakdown

  • Breakdown Level: $116
  • Target: $98.36 (already met)
  • Current Status: Price trading below breakdown level

4. Descending Channel

  • Status: SOL slipped below descending channel into $85-$90 area
  • Implication: Accelerated weakness below channel support

📊 TECHNICAL INDICATORS SUMMARY

Moving Averages (All Bearish)

MA PeriodValueSignalPosition
MA5$127.55SELLAbove price
MA10$127.64SELLAbove price
MA20$127.60SELLAbove price
MA50$129.28SELLAbove price
MA100$134.40SELLAbove price
MA200$139.27SELLAbove price

Verdict: 12 Sell / 0 Buy — All moving averages are above price, confirming strong downtrend

Momentum Indicators

IndicatorValueSignalInterpretation
RSI(14)46.62NeutralNot oversold yet on daily
Weekly RSI~37OversoldDeep oversold conditions
STOCH(9,6)44.43SellBearish momentum
StochRSI(14)34.15SellBearish momentum
MACD(12,26)-0.562SellBearish crossover
Williams %R-66.92SellBearish pressure
ADX(14)20.64BuyWeak trend (low conviction)

Overall Technical Sentiment: 90% Bearish, 10% Bullish


⚡ DERIVATIVES & LEVERAGE ANALYSIS

Open Interest Collapse (Deleveraging Phase)

  • Current OI: $5.27B (down -36% from $9.16B peak)
  • 30-day Average: $7.21B
  • Implication: Massive deleveraging—longs are capitulating

Recent Liquidations (Last 24 Hours)

  • Total Liquidated: $89.85K
  • Long Liquidations: 82.7% ($74.26K)
  • Short Liquidations: 17.3% ($15.59K)
  • Signal: Longs being flushed out at current levels

Funding Rate

  • Current: -0.0095% per 8h (Neutral to slightly bearish)
  • Annualized: -10.41%
  • Implication: No extreme overleveraging; market is balanced

Long/Short Ratio: 2.47 (71.2% Long) ⚠️

  • Status: Extremely bullish crowd positioning
  • Contrarian Signal: BEARISH — Too many retail longs creates cascade risk
  • Implication: If support breaks, 71.2% long positioning creates liquidation cascade potential

😨 MARKET SENTIMENT

Fear & Greed Index: 10 (Extreme Fear)

  • 7-day Trend: Decreasing (-6 points)
  • Historical Context: Extreme fear often marks capitulation bottoms
  • Risk Score: 22.14/100 (Low risk)
  • Volatility Score: 7.38/100 (Very low volatility)

Volume Analysis

  • 24h Volume: $5.12B (healthy)
  • Volume/Market Cap: ~10.45%
  • Volume Balance: Negative (higher volume on down days)
  • Liquidity Score: 79.17/100 (Strong)

🎯 TRADING SCENARIOS

🔴 BEARISH SCENARIO (Primary)

Trigger: Break below $85.00 with volume

Targets:

  1. $82.00 - $83.00 (secondary support test)
  2. $78.93 (critical weekly support)
  3. $70.00 - $75.00 (major support zone)
  4. $48.00 - $50.00 (H&S pattern target)

Probability: High (90% bearish technical signals)

Catalysts:

  • Continued macro risk-off sentiment
  • Further liquidation cascades (71.2% long positioning)
  • Break of $78 support accelerates selling
  • Weak on-chain demand

🟢 BULLISH REVERSAL SCENARIO (Secondary)

Trigger: Break above $106.53 on daily close with volume

Targets:

  1. $110.00 - $116.94 (short-term resistance)
  2. $120.00 - $133.73 (major resistance zone)
  3. $150.00+ (trend reversal confirmation)

Probability: Low (requires major catalyst)

Catalysts Needed:

  • Macro stabilization
  • OI recovery above $7.21B (30-day average)
  • Extreme fear (10) capitulation bottom
  • Short covering from 71.2% long positioning unwind

🟡 CONSOLIDATION SCENARIO (Near-term)

Range: $85.00 - $92.00

Characteristics:

  • Neutral funding rate supports range-bound trading
  • Low volatility (7.38/100) suggests consolidation
  • Extreme fear (10) may pause selling temporarily
  • OI stabilization around current levels

Duration: 1-2 weeks before directional break


📈 ANALYST PRICE TARGETS (2026)

Bullish Targets

  • Standard Chartered: $250 by end of 2026 (revised from $310)
  • Motley Fool: $250 (stablecoin micropayment thesis)
  • Bitpanda Bullish: $156.56 - $178.13
  • CoinCodex: $117.12 (+33.53%)

Bearish Targets

  • Head & Shoulders Pattern: $50 or lower
  • Technical Breakdown: $70 → $60 → $48-$45
  • Near-term: $78.93 if $85 support fails

Neutral/Moderate

  • CoinCodex 1-Month: $104.93 by March 11
  • CoinCodex 3-Month: $124.38 by May
  • Bitpanda Moderate: $149.23 average

💡 ACTIONABLE TRADING PLAN

For Short-Term Traders

Bearish Setup (Higher Probability)

  • Entry: Break below $85.00 with volume confirmation
  • Stop Loss: Above $88.00
  • Targets: $82 → $78 → $75
  • Risk/Reward: 1:3 to 1:5

Bullish Setup (Lower Probability)

  • Entry: Break above $92.00 with volume
  • Stop Loss: Below $85.00
  • Targets: $100 → $106.53
  • Risk/Reward: 1:2

For Swing Traders

Wait for Confirmation

  • Bearish Confirmation: Daily close below $82.00
  • Bullish Confirmation: Daily close above $106.53
  • Current Status: No clear trend—avoid chasing

For Long-Term Investors

Accumulation Zones (DCA Strategy)

  • Zone 1: $75.00 - $78.00 (25% allocation)
  • Zone 2: $60.00 - $70.00 (35% allocation)
  • Zone 3: $48.00 - $50.00 (40% allocation)

Rationale: Extreme fear (10) + oversold weekly RSI (37) + historical support zones = potential capitulation bottom


⚠️ KEY RISK FACTORS

Bearish Risks

  1. Confirmed H&S pattern targeting $50
  2. All MAs in sell mode (12/12 bearish)
  3. 71.2% long positioning creates cascade risk
  4. -36% OI collapse signals ongoing capitulation
  5. Weak on-chain demand and ecosystem activity
  6. Macro risk-off sentiment continues

Bullish Catalysts to Watch

  1. Extreme fear (10) historically marks bottoms
  2. Oversold weekly RSI (37) suggests potential bounce
  3. OI stabilization above $7.21B signals accumulation
  4. ETF inflows (Bitwise BSOL absorbed 78% of flows)
  5. Institutional treasury holdings (~3% of supply)
  6. Firedancer client improvements

🎯 FINAL VERDICT

Short-Term (1-4 Weeks): BEARISH

  • Bias: Downside to $78-$82 range
  • Key Level: Must hold $85.00 to avoid further decline
  • Confidence: High (90% bearish signals)

Medium-Term (2-6 Months): NEUTRAL TO BEARISH

  • Bias: Range-bound $70-$110 until macro clarity
  • Key Level: Break above $106.53 needed for reversal
  • Confidence: Medium (conflicting signals)

Long-Term (6-12 Months): CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

  • Bias: Potential recovery to $150-$250 if macro stabilizes
  • Key Level: Must hold $75-$78 support zone
  • Confidence: Low (high uncertainty)

📌 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH

LevelTypeAction
$106.53ResistanceBullish reversal trigger
$92.00ResistanceShort-term recovery target
$85.00SupportCRITICAL — must hold
$78.93SupportLast defense before capitulation
$50.00SupportH&S pattern target

Bottom Line: SOL is in a confirmed downtrend with 90% bearish technical signals, but extreme fear (10) and oversold conditions suggest a capitulation bottom may be forming. The $85.00 level is critical—a break below accelerates toward $78-$75, while a recovery above $106.53 would signal trend reversal. Current risk/reward favors waiting for clearer directional confirmation before entering positions.