SOL Technical Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels
Based on comprehensive market data, derivatives analysis, and current technical indicators, here's your complete technical analysis for Solana as of February 10, 2026.
📊 CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|
| Current Price | $86.29 | Down 66% from ATH ($294) |
| 24h Change | -0.42% | Consolidating |
| 7-Day Change | -16.92% | ⚠️ Significant downtrend |
| Market Cap | $48.97B | Rank #7 |
| 24h Volume | $5.12B | Strong liquidity |
| Technical Sentiment | 90% Bearish | Extreme pessimism |
🔴 KEY SUPPORT LEVELS
Immediate Support Zones
| Level | Distance | Strength | Technical Basis |
|---|
| $85.00 - $85.50 | -0.8% to -1.5% | 🟡 Moderate | January 2024 lows, current consolidation floor |
| $82.00 - $83.00 | -5% to -7% | 🟠 Strong | Secondary support from 2024 structure |
| $78.93 | -9% | 🔴 Critical | January 2024 trough; long-term weekly demand |
Major Support Zones
| Level | Distance | Strength | Technical Basis |
|---|
| $75.00 - $78.00 | -13% to -15% | 🔴 Critical | Major historical support; last defense before capitulation |
| $70.00 - $60.00 | -19% to -30% | 🔴 Extreme | Extended downside if $78 breaks |
| $48.00 - $50.00 | -44% to -42% | 🔴 Deep | Head & Shoulders pattern target; historical cycle lows |
Derivatives-Based Support
- $4.59B OI Floor: Represents the 30-day low in open interest—capitulation zone where remaining longs are highly committed
- $63.68M Liquidation Zone: Major cascade event on Jan 31, 2026 likely created local bottom
🟢 KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS
Immediate Resistance Zones
| Level | Distance | Strength | Technical Basis |
|---|
| $87.50 - $88.00 | +1% to +2% | 🟡 Weak | Current consolidation ceiling |
| $90.00 - $92.00 | +4% to +6% | 🟠 Moderate | Psychological level; short-term recovery target |
| $95.33 - $93.07 | +8% to +10% | 🟠 Strong | Major support zone (now resistance); Feb 2024 & April 2025 lows |
Major Resistance Zones
| Level | Distance | Strength | Technical Basis |
|---|
| $100.00 | +16% | 🔴 Critical | Psychological barrier; former monthly support |
| $106.53 | +23% | 🔴 Critical | Feb 1, 2026 high; must break for bullish reversal |
| $116.94 - $120.00 | +35% to +39% | 🔴 Major | December 2025 low; rectangle breakdown level |
| $133.73 - $150.00 | +55% to +74% | 🔴 Extreme | Nov-Dec 2025 lows; trend reversal confirmation |
Derivatives-Based Resistance
- $9.16B OI Peak: Maximum leverage concentration; overleveraged longs liquidated here—strong resistance until cleared
📉 BEARISH CHART PATTERNS (ACTIVE)
1. Head & Shoulders (Confirmed) ⚠️
- Status: Confirmed on monthly chart
- Target: $50 or lower
- Implication: Classic topping pattern suggesting major downtrend continuation
2. Falling Trend Channel
- Status: Active in medium-long term
- Signal: Increasing pessimism and lower highs/lower lows
3. Rectangle Breakdown
- Breakdown Level: $116
- Target: $98.36 (already met)
- Current Status: Price trading below breakdown level
4. Descending Channel
- Status: SOL slipped below descending channel into $85-$90 area
- Implication: Accelerated weakness below channel support
📊 TECHNICAL INDICATORS SUMMARY
Moving Averages (All Bearish)
| MA Period | Value | Signal | Position |
|---|
| MA5 | $127.55 | SELL | Above price |
| MA10 | $127.64 | SELL | Above price |
| MA20 | $127.60 | SELL | Above price |
| MA50 | $129.28 | SELL | Above price |
| MA100 | $134.40 | SELL | Above price |
| MA200 | $139.27 | SELL | Above price |
Verdict: 12 Sell / 0 Buy — All moving averages are above price, confirming strong downtrend
Momentum Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|
| RSI(14) | 46.62 | Neutral | Not oversold yet on daily |
| Weekly RSI | ~37 | Oversold | Deep oversold conditions |
| STOCH(9,6) | 44.43 | Sell | Bearish momentum |
| StochRSI(14) | 34.15 | Sell | Bearish momentum |
| MACD(12,26) | -0.562 | Sell | Bearish crossover |
| Williams %R | -66.92 | Sell | Bearish pressure |
| ADX(14) | 20.64 | Buy | Weak trend (low conviction) |
Overall Technical Sentiment: 90% Bearish, 10% Bullish
⚡ DERIVATIVES & LEVERAGE ANALYSIS
Open Interest Collapse (Deleveraging Phase)
- Current OI: $5.27B (down -36% from $9.16B peak)
- 30-day Average: $7.21B
- Implication: Massive deleveraging—longs are capitulating
Recent Liquidations (Last 24 Hours)
- Total Liquidated: $89.85K
- Long Liquidations: 82.7% ($74.26K)
- Short Liquidations: 17.3% ($15.59K)
- Signal: Longs being flushed out at current levels
Funding Rate
- Current: -0.0095% per 8h (Neutral to slightly bearish)
- Annualized: -10.41%
- Implication: No extreme overleveraging; market is balanced
Long/Short Ratio: 2.47 (71.2% Long) ⚠️
- Status: Extremely bullish crowd positioning
- Contrarian Signal: BEARISH — Too many retail longs creates cascade risk
- Implication: If support breaks, 71.2% long positioning creates liquidation cascade potential
😨 MARKET SENTIMENT
Fear & Greed Index: 10 (Extreme Fear)
- 7-day Trend: Decreasing (-6 points)
- Historical Context: Extreme fear often marks capitulation bottoms
- Risk Score: 22.14/100 (Low risk)
- Volatility Score: 7.38/100 (Very low volatility)
Volume Analysis
- 24h Volume: $5.12B (healthy)
- Volume/Market Cap: ~10.45%
- Volume Balance: Negative (higher volume on down days)
- Liquidity Score: 79.17/100 (Strong)
🎯 TRADING SCENARIOS
🔴 BEARISH SCENARIO (Primary)
Trigger: Break below $85.00 with volume
Targets:
- $82.00 - $83.00 (secondary support test)
- $78.93 (critical weekly support)
- $70.00 - $75.00 (major support zone)
- $48.00 - $50.00 (H&S pattern target)
Probability: High (90% bearish technical signals)
Catalysts:
- Continued macro risk-off sentiment
- Further liquidation cascades (71.2% long positioning)
- Break of $78 support accelerates selling
- Weak on-chain demand
🟢 BULLISH REVERSAL SCENARIO (Secondary)
Trigger: Break above $106.53 on daily close with volume
Targets:
- $110.00 - $116.94 (short-term resistance)
- $120.00 - $133.73 (major resistance zone)
- $150.00+ (trend reversal confirmation)
Probability: Low (requires major catalyst)
Catalysts Needed:
- Macro stabilization
- OI recovery above $7.21B (30-day average)
- Extreme fear (10) capitulation bottom
- Short covering from 71.2% long positioning unwind
🟡 CONSOLIDATION SCENARIO (Near-term)
Range: $85.00 - $92.00
Characteristics:
- Neutral funding rate supports range-bound trading
- Low volatility (7.38/100) suggests consolidation
- Extreme fear (10) may pause selling temporarily
- OI stabilization around current levels
Duration: 1-2 weeks before directional break
📈 ANALYST PRICE TARGETS (2026)
Bullish Targets
- Standard Chartered: $250 by end of 2026 (revised from $310)
- Motley Fool: $250 (stablecoin micropayment thesis)
- Bitpanda Bullish: $156.56 - $178.13
- CoinCodex: $117.12 (+33.53%)
Bearish Targets
- Head & Shoulders Pattern: $50 or lower
- Technical Breakdown: $70 → $60 → $48-$45
- Near-term: $78.93 if $85 support fails
Neutral/Moderate
- CoinCodex 1-Month: $104.93 by March 11
- CoinCodex 3-Month: $124.38 by May
- Bitpanda Moderate: $149.23 average
💡 ACTIONABLE TRADING PLAN
For Short-Term Traders
Bearish Setup (Higher Probability)
- Entry: Break below $85.00 with volume confirmation
- Stop Loss: Above $88.00
- Targets: $82 → $78 → $75
- Risk/Reward: 1:3 to 1:5
Bullish Setup (Lower Probability)
- Entry: Break above $92.00 with volume
- Stop Loss: Below $85.00
- Targets: $100 → $106.53
- Risk/Reward: 1:2
For Swing Traders
Wait for Confirmation
- Bearish Confirmation: Daily close below $82.00
- Bullish Confirmation: Daily close above $106.53
- Current Status: No clear trend—avoid chasing
For Long-Term Investors
Accumulation Zones (DCA Strategy)
- Zone 1: $75.00 - $78.00 (25% allocation)
- Zone 2: $60.00 - $70.00 (35% allocation)
- Zone 3: $48.00 - $50.00 (40% allocation)
Rationale: Extreme fear (10) + oversold weekly RSI (37) + historical support zones = potential capitulation bottom
⚠️ KEY RISK FACTORS
Bearish Risks
- Confirmed H&S pattern targeting $50
- All MAs in sell mode (12/12 bearish)
- 71.2% long positioning creates cascade risk
- -36% OI collapse signals ongoing capitulation
- Weak on-chain demand and ecosystem activity
- Macro risk-off sentiment continues
Bullish Catalysts to Watch
- Extreme fear (10) historically marks bottoms
- Oversold weekly RSI (37) suggests potential bounce
- OI stabilization above $7.21B signals accumulation
- ETF inflows (Bitwise BSOL absorbed 78% of flows)
- Institutional treasury holdings (~3% of supply)
- Firedancer client improvements
🎯 FINAL VERDICT
Short-Term (1-4 Weeks): BEARISH
- Bias: Downside to $78-$82 range
- Key Level: Must hold $85.00 to avoid further decline
- Confidence: High (90% bearish signals)
Medium-Term (2-6 Months): NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
- Bias: Range-bound $70-$110 until macro clarity
- Key Level: Break above $106.53 needed for reversal
- Confidence: Medium (conflicting signals)
Long-Term (6-12 Months): CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
- Bias: Potential recovery to $150-$250 if macro stabilizes
- Key Level: Must hold $75-$78 support zone
- Confidence: Low (high uncertainty)
📌 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
| Level | Type | Action |
|---|
| $106.53 | Resistance | Bullish reversal trigger |
| $92.00 | Resistance | Short-term recovery target |
| $85.00 | Support | CRITICAL — must hold |
| $78.93 | Support | Last defense before capitulation |
| $50.00 | Support | H&S pattern target |
Bottom Line: SOL is in a confirmed downtrend with 90% bearish technical signals, but extreme fear (10) and oversold conditions suggest a capitulation bottom may be forming. The $85.00 level is critical—a break below accelerates toward $78-$75, while a recovery above $106.53 would signal trend reversal. Current risk/reward favors waiting for clearer directional confirmation before entering positions.
