Stellar (XLM) Daily Market Analysis

Stellar (XLM) Faces Sharp Decline Amid Market Volatility

Stellar has decisively broken the $0.18 support level that held for over a year, with the next major historical support not appearing until the $0.10-$0.12 zone from 2023. The live Stellar price stands at $0.1614 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $179.6 million.

Market Performance and Technical Outlook

Technical analysis shows XLM's 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 21.03 as of February 4, 2026—deep in "oversold" territory. Stellar's community is grappling with severe underperformance as it tests multi-year lows, with traders noting XLM is breaking key support and charts pointing to a potential drop toward $0.10, while analysts highlight its drastic underperformance versus Bitcoin and the broader crypto market this cycle.

Stellar's 9.35% drop almost exactly mirrors Bitcoin's 9.41% decline, indicating this is a beta-driven move, not coin-specific news. The immediate trigger is market anticipation of Donald Trump's "urgent" speech scheduled for February 5, with potential for a relief bounce toward the $0.172 resistance if this event passes without further negative catalysts and XLM holds the psychological $0.15 support.

Institutional Developments

CME confirmed plans to expand its crypto derivatives, with futures for Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar (XLM) scheduled to launch on February 9, 2026. Rails has launched onchain vaults for institutional derivatives on Stellar, enhancing high-speed perpetuals with smart contracts and onchain proofs.

Network Activity Concerns

Daily transactions are flat at approximately 5 million, but the average transaction value has plummeted, suggesting the core use-case of payments and remittances is holding, but high-value capital flow and speculative interest have evaporated.

Protocol Advancement

Protocol X-Ray launched on January 22, 2026, introducing native zero-knowledge cryptography for privacy-enabled, compliance-ready applications.

Stellar (XLM) 24-Hour Price Analysis

Current Price & Performance

Stellar is down 9.35% to $0.154 in 24h, closely tracking a broad market sell-off primarily driven by a sharp drop in Bitcoin. The current price stands at approximately $0.163 USD with a market capitalization of $5.33 billion.

Primary Drivers of Price Decline

Macro-Driven Market Sell-Off

Broad market capitulation led by Bitcoin, sparked by reports of large institutional selling and fear ahead of a key political announcement represents the primary catalyst for XLM's decline. Stellar's 9.35% drop almost exactly mirrors Bitcoin's 9.41% decline, indicating this is a beta-driven move, not coin-specific news.

Technical Breakdown

Technical breakdown from key support levels and sector-wide weakness in Layer 1 tokens have compounded selling pressure. XLM's 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 21.03 as of 4 February 2026—deep in "oversold" territory indicates extreme downward momentum.

Market Metrics

Trading Volume & Volatility

The trading volume of Stellar (XLM) is $108,976,248.98 in the last 24 hours, representing a -9.00% decrease from one day ago and signalling a recent fall in market activity.

Broader Context

XLM has fallen by almost 15.07% in the last 7 days. This extended weakness reflects both macro headwinds and relative underperformance versus the broader cryptocurrency market.

Technical Outlook

If XLM holds the psychological $0.15 support, a relief bounce toward the $0.172 resistance is plausible. However, a break below $0.15 opens the path toward the yearly low near $0.13.

Stellar (XLM) Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Sentiment: Bearish with Technical Oversold Conditions

Stellar is down 9.35% to $0.154 in 24 hours, closely tracking a broad market sell-off primarily driven by a sharp drop in Bitcoin, reflecting heavy risk-off sentiment across crypto with altcoins like XLM facing amplified pressure. Technical indicators signal bearish sentiment on Stellar, while the Fear & Greed Index is displaying a score of 14 (Extreme Fear).

Technical Indicators and Market Conditions

XLM's 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 21.03 is deep in "oversold" territory (<30), indicating that selling pressure has been exhausted, prompting short-term traders to buy the dip for a mean reversion bounce. However, the broader trend remains bearish, with price trading well below all major moving averages (e.g., the 200-day SMA at $0.3125).

Traders note XLM is breaking key support, with charts pointing to a potential drop toward $0.10. If XLM holds above the $0.15 support, a short-term bounce toward $0.172 is possible; a break below risks a drop toward the 2025 low near $0.13.

Social Media and Community Sentiment

Stellar received 50% positive comments versus 50% negative comments on Reddit, indicating a split community perspective. On Twitter, 35.98% of tweets showed bullish sentiment compared to 11.93% bearish sentiment about Stellar Lumens, with 64.02% of tweets neutral.

The subreddit for Stellar Lumens has 212,116 redditors, with the number of Reddit subscribers increasing by 0.6% since last month, indicating a growing interest in the brand.

Fundamental Developments Supporting Long-Term Outlook

Despite near-term bearish price action, several positive catalysts emerged:

Stellar ranked 4th in real-world asset (RWA) sector development activity, and XLM's 7-day RSI hit 21, signaling extreme selling exhaustion that often precedes a technical bounce.

CME Group confirmed plans to expand its crypto derivatives, with futures for Stellar (XLM) scheduled to launch on February 9, 2026, which is bullish for XLM because a CME futures listing provides a regulated, institutional-grade venue for exposure.

On 3 February 2026, institutional crypto derivatives provider Rails launched "Institutional-Grade Vaults" on the Stellar network, enabling brokerages and fintechs to access perpetual futures with client assets held in onchain, audited smart contracts, validating the network's infrastructure for high-value finance.

Price Performance and Market Metrics

Current market data shows:

• Price: $0.1628 USD
• 24-hour change: -0.21%
• 7-day change: -9.88%
• Market Cap: $5.33 billion
• Trading Volume: $170.2 million

With a price increase of 0.40% in the last 7 days, Stellar (XLM) is underperforming the global cryptocurrency market which is up 4.30%, while underperforming when compared to similar Smart Contract Platform cryptocurrencies which are up 5.40%.

Trader Positioning

Global derivatives open interest rose 13% in 24 hours, indicating new positioning. Analysts highlight XLM's drastic underperformance versus Bitcoin and the broader crypto market this cycle, with the network's low on-chain activity and transaction volume raising fundamental concerns.

Sentiment Summary

The current market sentiment for XLM reflects a bearish technical environment driven by macro factors and Bitcoin weakness, combined with extreme oversold conditions that may trigger short-term relief bounces. While community sentiment remains mixed and social media shows neutral-to-slightly-bullish leanings, the fundamental developments around institutional adoption and RWA positioning provide longer-term support. The convergence of oversold RSI levels with institutional product launches suggests potential for tactical rebounds, though the broader downtrend remains intact until Bitcoin stabilizes.

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