tBTC (TBTC) Daily Market Analysis 14 February 2026

tBTC Reaches 5,942 BTC in Total Value Locked Amid January Growth

tBTC's total value locked reached 5,942 BTC in January 2026, with 97 percent of supply concentrated on Ethereum, marking a strong start to the year for Threshold Network with continued growth in tBTC adoption, a new vault launch, and deeper engagement with Bitcoin's onchain role.

Protocol Developments and Infrastructure Upgrades

On January 27, Threshold released the tBTC Blueprint Report by Alea Research, detailing tBTC's 800% growth since 2024 and underscoring its security and resilience relative to other tokenized Bitcoin alternatives.

Fee waivers for $T stakers are now live on Threshold Network, strengthening both T's utility and long-term value accrual for tBTC, while tBTC launched a BTC-denominated vault on Noon via Vesu, designed for structured onchain positioning for Bitcoin.

Vault Launch and Yield Opportunities

On January 10, the Noon-tBTC Yield Vault launched on Threshold Network in partnership with Vesu, Starknet's largest lending platform, built around disciplined Bitcoin yield strategies with an initial target of 10 percent APY, reaching $454,060 in TVL with a 7-day APY of 6.79 percent within two days.

Cumulative Volume Milestone

tBTC has surpassed 48,000 BTC in cumulative volume to date and is on track to reach the 50,000 BTC milestone in Q2.

Market Position and Institutional Focus

These metrics reflect tBTC's role as a production-ready Bitcoin bridge built without leverage, rehypothecation, or opaque yield mechanics. Threshold Network has expanded tBTC's utility across leading DeFi markets, with partnerships with established protocols such as Aave, Morpho, Curve, and Aerodrome, as well as continued expansion into emerging ecosystems like Sui and Starknet.

2026 Roadmap and Future Development

Threshold plans a Threshold App-Chain in 2026 to reduce Ethereum dependency and a Tokenomics Redesign in 2026 to address inflation and value accrual. BitVM2 Integration in 2026 will enhance tBTC's security model, with plans to upgrade tBTC's custody model using BitVM2, shifting from an "honest majority" trust assumption to a 1-of-N model.

Based on the available data, there is a discrepancy in reported price movements for TBTC across different sources. According to my data pull, TBTC shows a 24-hour price increase of 3.82%, with the current price at $68,912.87. However, web sources show conflicting information, with some reporting modest gains (1.5-2.6%) and others showing declines.

Price Performance

The most recent data indicates TBTC is trading at approximately $68,912.87, representing a 3.82% gain over the last 24 hours. The token also gained 0.27% in the past hour, suggesting continued upward momentum.

Market Metrics

• Trading Volume: $11.0 million in 24-hour volume
• Market Capitalization: $441.0 million
• Circulating Supply: 6,399 TBTC tokens
• 7-Day Performance: -2.49% (indicating the 24-hour gain represents a recovery from weekly losses)

Drivers of Price Movement

The price increase appears to be driven by broader Bitcoin market dynamics, as tBTC is a Bitcoin-backed token designed to represent Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain. The token's value is directly pegged to Bitcoin's price, meaning Bitcoin's daily performance significantly influences TBTC movements.

The modest 24-hour gain follows a negative 7-day period, suggesting recent market stabilization or recovery in Bitcoin-related assets. The trading volume of $11 million indicates moderate market activity supporting the price movement.

TBTC Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Sentiment Assessment

Current sentiment for TBTC is neutral, with technical analysis indicators showing balanced bullish and bearish signals. However, the broader ecosystem sentiment demonstrates more nuanced positioning. The consensus on tBTC is bullish, driven by cross-chain expansion (Sui/Starknet), institutional interest (Polkadot reserve plan), and surging TVL ($693M as of August 11).

Social Media and Community Sentiment

Across all social media platforms, tBTC has an average sentiment score of 4.1 out of 5, with 45.86% of tweets showing bullish sentiment compared to 14.36% bearish, while 54.14% of tweets were neutral. These sentiments are based on 207 tweets, and on Reddit, tBTC was mentioned in 24 Reddit posts with 167 comments.

In contrast, tBTC V2 shows stronger social sentiment with an average score of 4.8 out of 5, with 62.87% of tweets bullish compared to 8.29% bearish.

Community Positioning and Sentiment Drivers

Threshold's community oscillates between bullish bets on Bitcoin DeFi bridges and frustration over recent underperformance. Key sentiment drivers include:

• Positive Catalysts: tBTC's Sui integration sparks optimism for Bitcoin liquidity, with token burn and v2 upgrades fueling bullish technical narratives

• Institutional Adoption: Threshold is targeting institutional Bitcoin holders with gasless minting, vault strategies, and integrations on chains like Starknet and Sui, with recent upgrades (November 2025) simplifying institutional onboarding, which is bullish long-term as institutions hold ~$414B in BTC

• Security Improvements: A renewed partnership with Immunefi (December 2025) ensures continuous protocol audits and a bug bounty program, critical as tBTC's TVL grows

Price Action and Technical Indicators

Current market metrics show:

• Price: $68,912.87 USD
• 24-hour change: +3.82%
• 7-day change: -2.49%
• Market Cap: $441.04M
• 24-hour volume: $11.00M

Technical analysis indicators show 11 bullish signs and 11 bearish signs, explaining the neutral sentiment. Momentum metrics, including TBTC RSI and moving averages, indicate the first potential increase in TBTC price is going to be today.

Risk Indicators

While T's price remains under pressure (-45% in 90 days), protocol developments suggest long-term potential. Competition remains a concern with WBTC dominating ~97% of Ethereum's BTC bridges; tBTC's 3.1% share hinges on balancing decentralization with user costs, and rebate programs depend on T's market performance—volatility could dampen incentives.

Sentiment Outlook

The consensus remains bullish, driven by cross-chain expansion and institutional interest, with tBTC ranking top 3 in Wormhole bridge volumes with $3.6B+ in cross-chain activity, signaling growing trust in Bitcoin's DeFi wrapper. However, execution risk exists around planned 2026 upgrades including BitVM2 integration, Threshold App-Chain development, and tokenomics redesign.

TBTC Technical Analysis

Current Market Status

Price: $68,912.87 USD Market Cap: $441.04M 24h Volume: $11.00M Available Supply: 6,399 TBTC Rank: #110

Price Performance

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Key Technical Indicators

Volatility & Risk Metrics:

• Volatility Score: 4.16 (low volatility)
• Risk Score: 58.99 (moderate risk)
• Liquidity Score: 36.32 (moderate liquidity)

Momentum Analysis: Technical analysis indicators show neutral sentiment with 11 indicators showing bullish signs and 11 showing bearish signs. The low volatility score suggests TBTC is trading in a relatively stable range compared to broader market movements.

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Key Support Levels

Primary Support Zones:

• $67,500 - $68,000: Immediate support near current price action
• $65,000 - $66,000: Secondary support level
• $62,000 - $63,000: Tertiary support zone

The proximity of current price to the $68,000 level indicates TBTC is testing near-term support. A break below $67,500 would signal weakness toward the secondary support zone.

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Key Resistance Levels

Primary Resistance Zones:

• $70,000 - $71,000: Immediate resistance overhead
• $73,000 - $74,000: Intermediate resistance
• $75,000 - $76,000: Secondary resistance zone

Price targets for the week are projected to range between $69,785 and $82,303, indicating potential upside resistance in the $75,000-$82,000 range.

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Chart Pattern Analysis

Consolidation Pattern: TBTC is consolidating within a defined range. The 24-hour gain of +3.82% suggests recent bullish momentum, though the 7-day decline of -2.49% indicates consolidation within a broader trading band.

Volume Analysis: Trading volume of $11.00M against a market cap of $441.04M reflects moderate liquidity conditions. The low volatility score (4.16) combined with moderate volume suggests TBTC is in a period of price stability rather than trending strongly in either direction.

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Timeframe Analysis

Hourly (1H):

• Slight upward momentum (+0.27%)
• Price consolidating near support levels
• Low intraday volatility

Daily (1D):

• Positive momentum (+3.82%)
• Trading within established support/resistance band
• Moderate liquidity conditions

Weekly (1W):

• Slight downward pressure (-2.49%)
• Consolidation pattern persisting
• Price holding above key support zones

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Short-Term Outlook

TBTC is consolidating in a neutral technical environment. The positive 24-hour performance (+3.82%) against a negative weekly trend (-2.49%) suggests intraday strength within a broader consolidation phase. Key levels to monitor are the $70,000 resistance above and $67,500 support below. A break above $71,000 would target the $73,000-$75,000 resistance zone.

Medium-Term Outlook

Weekly price targets are projected between $69,785 and $82,303, with momentum metrics indicating potential increases. The moderate risk score (58.99) and low volatility suggest TBTC may be positioned for a directional move once consolidation resolves. Sustained trading above $71,000 would be required to confirm upside breakout potential toward the $75,000-$82,000 range.