# Prediction Market News Today: Latest Update – 22 October 2026

**Author:** CoinStats AI
**Published:** October 22, 2026 at 08:30

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> **TLDR**
> • Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist letters on 21 October, with compliance deadline of 30 October 2026.
> • Polymarket US sued Ohio officials in Southern District of Ohio on 16 October.
> • Utah Attorney General Derek Brown sued Kalshi on 20 October, seeking restitution up to $61.2M.
> • Kalshi's Supreme Court response deadline moved to 9 November 2026 in Flaherty v. KalshiEx.
> • Polymarket is raising about $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation, per Bloomberg on 20 October.

## Top Story

Ohio is escalating its effort to stop sports event contracts on prediction markets. On 21 October, the Ohio Casino Control Commission confirmed it had sent cease-and-desist letters to licensees and applicants. Licensees must stop the activity and report compliance by 30 October 2026, or risk penalties. The order reaches the apps of at least ten named operators, so the [prediction markets](https://coinstats.app/prediction-markets/apps/) available to Ohio users may change after 30 October. ([Holland & Knight](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/ohio-pulls-the-lever-gaming-licensees-ordered-to-cease); [Sports Betting Dime](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/industry/ohio-regulators-again-warn-gaming-licensees-to-cease-relationships-with-prediction-market-operators))

The step follows letters sent on 2 October to ten operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, Novig and ProphetX, with a 16 October deadline. Reporting says the platforms were still operating when that deadline passed. The commission cited the Sixth Circuit's 25 September ruling, which held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. ([Covers](https://www.covers.com/industry/ohio-regulator-sends-cease-and-desist-notices-to-10-prediction-market-companies-oct-5-2026); [Ohio Capital Journal](https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/10/20/prediction-market-platforms-ignoring-ohios-legal-threats/))

On 20 October, Governor Mike DeWine said action is forthcoming against operators that did not comply. He said Attorney General Andy Wilson will file suits if they do not. The effect of the Sixth Circuit ruling on other states is disputed. ([Sports Betting Dime](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/industry/ohio-governor-says-action-forthcoming-against-prediction-market-operators/))

Polymarket US, a separate venue from polymarket.com, is challenging the state. QCX LLC, which does business as Polymarket US, sued Wilson and Ohio casino regulators in the Southern District of Ohio on 16 October. The complaint cites the CFTC's October rulemaking and seeks injunctions against enforcement of the state's sports gaming licensing rules. ([Yahoo Finance/Unchained](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-takes-ohio-federal-court-214200153.html); [CourtListener complaint](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ohsd.316878/gov.uscourts.ohsd.316878.1.0.pdf))

## Biggest Market Moves

Prices are the cost of a $1 Yes contract. Changes are in percentage points. Figures are as of 08:27 UTC on 22 October.

| Market | Venue | Price now | 24h change | 24h volume |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? (↑ 85,000) | Polymarket | 50.5¢ | -19 pts | $121,355 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? (October 31) | Polymarket | 73.5¢ | -8 pts | $442,018 |
| Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio? (Jon Husted) | Kalshi | 28¢ | -8 pts | $386,673 |
| Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas? (Greg Abbott) | Kalshi | 65¢ | -8 pts | $260,680 |
| Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia? (Rick Jackson) | Kalshi | 44¢ | -7 pts | $347,754 |

## Volume

At 08:27 UTC, 24-hour volume on open markets was $48.43M on Polymarket and $80.30M on Kalshi. Kalshi accounted for 62.4% of the combined total and Polymarket for 37.6%. Polymarket US publishes no 24-hour volume figure.

## Regulation and Courts

### Utah sues Kalshi

Utah Attorney General Derek Brown sued Kalshi, its affiliates and two Susquehanna trading firms in Utah's Third District Court on 20 October. The state asks the court to stop Kalshi offering sports, election, politics and culture contracts in Utah, and to require a geolocation provider. The state estimates Kalshi earned $30.6M to $61.2M from wagers placed by Utah accounts, and it seeks restitution of up to $61.2M. The allegations are unproven. ([Deseret News](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2026/10/20/utah-sues-kalshi-prediction-market-sports-betting-online-gambling/); [Standard-Examiner](https://www.standard.net/news/2026/oct/21/utah-sues-kalshi-for-brazen-pattern-of-violating-states-gambling-ban/))

Kalshi says it is "a federally regulated financial exchange" and that "no single state should have a veto." Judge Robert Shelby ruled for Utah in August, and the Tenth Circuit denied Kalshi an injunction pending appeal in September. Full details are on the [Kalshi news](https://coinstats.app/ai/a/kalshi-news-today) page. ([Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/utah-lawsuit-kalshi-susquehanna-prediction-markets-illegal-bets))

### Michigan contempt motion

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel asked the Ingham County Circuit Court to hold Kalshi in contempt. She alleges targeted advertising to Michigan residents after a 1 September preliminary injunction. Judge Rosemarie Aquilina scheduled a show-cause hearing for 24 November 2026. The scheduling is not a finding that Kalshi violated the order. ([PlayMichigan](https://www.playmichigan.com/news/michigan-seeks-contempt-finding-against-kalshi-over-targeted-ads/))

### Missouri deadline passes with two suits

Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters in September to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood. Each had 30 days to stop sports event contracts or obtain state authorization. ([Husch Blackwell via JD Supra](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/missouri-attorney-general-sends-cease-4169708))

On 16 October, Novig's operator, Ludlow Exchange LLC, sued Missouri officials in the Eastern District of Missouri. Crypto.com's exchange, North American Derivatives Exchange, sued in the Western District that day. As of 19 October, those were the only two recipients reported to have sued. [Robinhood prediction markets news](https://coinstats.app/ai/a/robinhood-prediction-markets-news) reports that Robinhood filed no suit before the deadline. The [prediction market litigation tracker](https://coinstats.app/prediction-markets/legal/tracker/) lists the wider docket. ([SBC Americas](https://sbcamericas.com/2026/10/19/novig-missouri-prediction-markets/); [Crowdfund Insider](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/10/319462-crypto-com-novig-seek-court-protection-for-sports-contracts-as-missouri-deadlines-expire/))

### Kalshi's Supreme Court petition

New Jersey's petition in *Flaherty v. KalshiEx*, No. 26-299, is pending at the U.S. Supreme Court. The Court moved Kalshi's response deadline from 8 October to 9 November 2026. Ohio, 38 other states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief supporting the petitioners on 7 October. ([Supreme Court docket](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-299.html); [amicus brief](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/26/26-299/428759/20261007134825385_Amicus%20Cert%20of%20Compliance.pdf))

Kalshi also petitioned the Sixth Circuit for rehearing en banc on 9 October. ([CourtListener filing](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca6.158038/gov.uscourts.ca6.158038.92.0.pdf))

### CFTC proposes wider swap definition and excludes sportsbook wagers

On 9 October, the CFTC proposed a rule that would expressly define event contracts, including sports, politics, cultural and weather events, as swaps. Comments are due 18 November 2026. The same day, the CFTC issued an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products, including sportsbook wagers, from the swap definition. It was published in the Federal Register on 19 October. Chairman Michael S. Selig said: "Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives." ([CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9309-26); [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/19/2026-21377/further-definition-of-swap-inclusions))

## Company News

- **Polymarket:** Bloomberg reported on 20 October that Polymarket is raising about $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation, led by 1789 Capital, with Founders Fund participating. The company has not confirmed the figures. [Polymarket news](https://coinstats.app/ai/a/polymarket-news-today) has more. ([Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/ice-backed-polymarket-ceo-used-155452407.html))
- **Polymarket fees:** Per a Polymarket post on X, trading fees are waived through 31 October in NBA, politics, economics, weather, finance, culture, mentions and technology markets. ([Gate News](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-waives-trading-fees-on-eight-market-categories-until-oct-31-25092335))
- **Polymarket US fees:** A new fee schedule took effect exchange-wide at 1:00 PM ET on 19 October. For the rest of October, tiers use the higher of September volume or 4x volume from 12 to 18 October. From 1 November, the monthly rule applies. ([Polymarket US fee schedule](https://docs.polymarket.us/fees))
- **Kalshi:** Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reports a valuation of about $40 billion in a new funding round. CEO Mansour said sports is close to 65% of revenue, down from about 95% nine months earlier. ([Reuters via Journal Record](https://journalrecord.com/2026/10/21/kalshi-prediction-markets-supreme-court-regulation))
- **Robinhood:** CEO Vlad Tenev said its prediction markets unit traded about 2.5 billion event contracts in October, more than all of Q3. Rothera, the CFTC-licensed exchange built with Susquehanna, has processed over 3.5 billion contracts since its late-May launch, about 93% of them from FIFA World Cup markets. ([Startup Fortune](https://startupfortune.com/robinhoods-prediction-markets-business-is-now-outgrowing-crypto-trading))
- **Novig:** Novig expanded its partnership with sports integrity firm IC360 on 19 October, adding market surveillance and insider-trading tools. ([Gambling.com](https://www.gambling.com/us/news/novig-expands-ic360-partnership-on-market-integrity))
- **DraftKings Predictions:** DKeX filed two CFTC submissions changing its fees, both effective 2 November. One doubles the maker fee on combination contracts. The report of the filing is unverified against the CFTC record. ([Next Event Horizon](https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/ohio-vs-prediction-markets-escalates))

## What to Watch

- **30 October:** Deadline for Ohio licensees to report compliance. Polymarket's fee waiver also ends that day.
- **9 November:** Kalshi's response due in *Flaherty v. KalshiEx*.
- **18 November:** Comment deadline for the CFTC's proposed swap definition.
- **24 November:** Show-cause hearing on the Michigan contempt motion against Kalshi.

**Sources:**
- [Holland & Knight: Ohio pulls the lever on gaming licensees](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/ohio-pulls-the-lever-gaming-licensees-ordered-to-cease)
- [Sports Betting Dime: Ohio regulators warn licensees](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/industry/ohio-regulators-again-warn-gaming-licensees-to-cease-relationships-with-prediction-market-operators)
- [Sports Betting Dime: Ohio governor says action forthcoming](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/industry/ohio-governor-says-action-forthcoming-against-prediction-market-operators/)
- [Covers: Ohio sends cease-and-desist notices to 10 companies](https://www.covers.com/industry/ohio-regulator-sends-cease-and-desist-notices-to-10-prediction-market-companies-oct-5-2026)
- [Ohio Capital Journal: Platforms ignoring Ohio's legal threats](https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/10/20/prediction-market-platforms-ignoring-ohios-legal-threats/)
- [Yahoo Finance/Unchained: Polymarket takes Ohio to federal court](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-takes-ohio-federal-court-214200153.html)
- [Complaint, QCX LLC v. Wilson (S.D. Ohio)](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ohsd.316878/gov.uscourts.ohsd.316878.1.0.pdf)
- [Deseret News: Utah files lawsuit against Kalshi](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2026/10/20/utah-sues-kalshi-prediction-market-sports-betting-online-gambling/)
- [Standard-Examiner: Utah sues Kalshi for brazen pattern](https://www.standard.net/news/2026/oct/21/utah-sues-kalshi-for-brazen-pattern-of-violating-states-gambling-ban/)
- [Cointelegraph: Utah AG sues Kalshi](https://cointelegraph.com/news/utah-lawsuit-kalshi-susquehanna-prediction-markets-illegal-bets)
- [SBC Americas: Kalshi suit by Utah](https://sbcamericas.com/2026/10/21/utah-kalshi-lawsuit-susquehanna/)
- [PlayMichigan: Michigan seeks Kalshi contempt finding](https://www.playmichigan.com/news/michigan-seeks-contempt-finding-against-kalshi-over-targeted-ads/)
- [JD Supra: Missouri AG sends cease-and-desist letters](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/missouri-attorney-general-sends-cease-4169708)
- [SBC Americas: Novig and Crypto.com sue Missouri](https://sbcamericas.com/2026/10/19/novig-missouri-prediction-markets/)
- [Crowdfund Insider: Crypto.com, Novig seek court protection](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/10/319462-crypto-com-novig-seek-court-protection-for-sports-contracts-as-missouri-deadlines-expire/)
- [Supreme Court docket: No. 26-299, Flaherty v. KalshiEx](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-299.html)
- [Amicus brief of Ohio, 38 other states and D.C., No. 26-299](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/26/26-299/428759/20261007134825385_Amicus%20Cert%20of%20Compliance.pdf)
- [CourtListener: Kalshi petition for rehearing en banc](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca6.158038/gov.uscourts.ca6.158038.92.0.pdf)
- [CFTC press release 9309-26: Interim final rule](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9309-26)
- [Federal Register: Further definition of "swap"-inclusions](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/19/2026-21377/further-definition-of-swap-inclusions)
- [Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg: Polymarket valuation report](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/ice-backed-polymarket-ceo-used-155452407.html)
- [Gate News: Polymarket waives trading fees](https://www.gate.com/news/detail/polymarket-waives-trading-fees-on-eight-market-categories-until-oct-31-25092335)
- [Polymarket US fee schedule](https://docs.polymarket.us/fees)
- [Reuters via Journal Record: Kalshi CEO says regulatory fight could reach Supreme Court](https://journalrecord.com/2026/10/21/kalshi-prediction-markets-supreme-court-regulation)
- [Startup Fortune: Robinhood's prediction markets business](https://startupfortune.com/robinhoods-prediction-markets-business-is-now-outgrowing-crypto-trading)
- [Gambling.com: Novig expands IC360 partnership](https://www.gambling.com/us/news/novig-expands-ic360-partnership-on-market-integrity)
- [Next Event Horizon: Ohio escalates prediction markets fight](https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/ohio-vs-prediction-markets-escalates)

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## Related Questions

- What is Polymarket US's legal argument against Ohio's enforcement actions?
- How might the CFTC's proposed swap definition affect the Ohio cease-and-desist orders?
- Which prediction market operators have sued Missouri officials over the cease-and-desist letters?

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*This article was generated by [CoinStats AI](https://coinstats.app/ai)*