Is the Bottom Finally in for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is experiencing one of its biggest declines this week, having shed more than 2%. It retraced from $110,037 to a low of $106,303.

However, price actions on Wednesday show a higher loss than the one seen on Thursday. The apex coin lost almost 3% as it retraced from $113,654 to $110k.

Trading action over the last two days left many investors stunned, as they had expected a massive surge following the FOMC. The report turned out bearish, and investors hoped the asset would recover after the meeting between Xi and Trump. This never happened as BTC slipped even lower. 

Several analysts have since expressed their surprise about the current price action. Ash Crypto reiterated that the 25 bps rate cut occurred as expected, the QT ending was announced, the US is ending its trade war with China, and stocks hit new highs. However, he expressed shock over the fact that Bitcoin is yet to break above $116k and added that “this is the shittiest bull market ever.”

Others in the comments agreed with him, with some referring to the recent surge as a liquidity trap. Another said, “This isn’t strength, it’s exhaustion disguised as optimism,” and added that “it’s not a bull market, it’s a distribution phase.” 

Opinions such as those from Ash and his followers reflect the growing frustration among investors. 

Why Did Bitcoin Dip?

A recent report from Glassnode noted that Bitcoin demand softened and long-term holders are selling following the hawkish Fed news. The platform also noted that this group helped suppress volatility. 

The cohort consists of investors who have held their positions between 6 and 12 months. They accounted for 50% of the total sellers in the recent selloff that began after BTC peaked at $126k. Due to this cohort, the apex coin has been unable to surge higher due to their dumping, sealing the top.

Recent price action suggests other levels at which they began selling after recovery. However, their selloff didn’t start in October. They’ve been at it since mid-July, spending $648 million daily. They may keep selling as their cost basis lies between $70k and $96k and remain in profit, provided the apex coin remains above this level.

While the motivation of this cohort may be to take profit and buy at a lower price, it also hints at the bottom. 

The Bottom

Bitcoin retraced to $106k a few hours ago but rebounded. This is not the first time it has seen a buyback play out at the mark. For example, on Oct 22, it retraced but failed to break below the mark. It means that there is notable demand concentration around it. 

Widening the scope reveals several rebounds between $107k and $106k as the bulls defended the mark. BTC surged in most instances, flipping some resistance after halting the downtrend at this mark.

While it may be safe to conclude that the bottom is in, it is important to note that a slip to $100k remains likely if the highlighted cohort resumes selling. Nonetheless, there is notable demand concentration at $104k.

If the current rebound progresses, BTC will likely reclaim $110k and may attempt to reach $113k by Monday. 

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