Trump Posted “CEASEFIRE!” Stocks and Oil Reacted, Bitcoin Did Not

Trump’s Iran ceasefire post moved stocks and oil immediately, but Bitcoin has yet to follow. Bitcoin opened and closed the day near $62,800, roughly where it started.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% on Monday before correcting, and the S&P 500 gained 0.9%. Oil, which had been elevated for weeks on fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, calmed.

S&P 500 Price Chart. Source: Google Finance

Trump’s Details of Peace

Trump posted on Truth Social about the prospect of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The conflict had escalated earlier after Israel’s strike on Lebanon and Iran’s retaliation.

Trump’s Post on Truth Social

Both sides confirmed the halt independently. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced a “halt in offensive strikes” and warned that any future Israeli attack would trigger a “much more severe” response. 

Israel confirmed it had suspended strikes on Iran. Israel’s statement came after Iran fired missiles toward Israel on Sunday, June 7, the latest exchange before both sides stepped back. Israel confirmed it continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Markets are Tied to Ceasefire Signals

Oil embedded a war premium, the extra cost built into prices because of conflict risk, into every inflation reading since May. Traders removed that premium the moment Iran confirmed a halt. Equities followed.

Bitcoin’s relationship with the war has been more complicated: the asset climbed from $65,878 to above $82,000 in May as markets priced it as a store of value against geopolitical risk, then gave back all those gains when the ceasefire broke down. 

Trump’s “I call the shots” comments moved Bitcoin 5 per cent just days ago. Monday’s post produced no equivalent move.

Why Bitcoin Has Not Caught Up

When Trump announced the April ceasefire, stocks, oil, and Bitcoin all moved together. That is the benchmark Monday is measured against. 

There has been little to no reaction from Bitcoin to the ceasefire call over the last 24 hours. Source: Coingecko

Coinbase analysts have previously warned that ceasefire rallies carry trap risk for Bitcoin: traders celebrated the April ceasefire, then watched it collapse, and Bitcoin gave back the entire move. 

The market appears to have learned that lesson. Bitcoin is not pricing a permanent deal until one actually holds.