Polkadot (DOT) Technical Analysis
Current Price & Market Data
Polkadot (DOT) is trading at $1.406 USD, having risen 5.63% in the past 24 hours. Market capitalization stands at $2.35 billion with 24-hour trading volume of approximately $113.7 million.
Key Support Levels
Nearest Support Zone is $1.75, then $1.60. Nearest Resistance Zone is $2.00, then $2.40.
Additional critical support levels identified:
- The $1.84 to the $1.85 zone is critical; losing it opens fast downside risk
- As long as DOT holds above the $1.70 support zone, downside risk appears contained
- Whether DOT can defend the $1.25 support level in the next 24-48h as broader market sentiment is tested
Key Resistance Levels
Primary resistance levels:
- The descending supertrend around $2.19 and the $2.09 resistance
- DOT lost the $2.00 level, which has flipped into strong resistance
- A stronger recovery likely requires a move back above $2.10 to signal a shift in trend and attract sustained buying interest
Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI sits at 36.56, indicating neutral conditions with room for upward movement before reaching overbought territory. RSI (28.2) is in the oversold zone, showing that sellers have pushed hard and the market might be close to exhaustion if selling slows down.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is negative, which signals sellers are pressing harder. The bearish MACD momentum and position below all major moving averages (SMA 20, 50, 200) suggest the path of least resistance remains downward.
Moving Averages
On the daily chart, exponential moving averages show a bearish signal. Polkadot price currently sits below all exponential moving averages. The ultimate bullish target would be a reclaim of the 50-day SMA at $1.82, though this would require significant fundamental catalysts and broader market support.
Chart Patterns & Structure
The broader structure continues to reflect a downtrend, with lower highs intact and momentum indicators staying soft despite a modest daily bounce.
Price is in a Downtrend. Breakout from Channel Down pattern appears to have failed so far. Price needs to break back above $2.00 resistance to confirm a bullish trend reversal, with $2.40 as potential target.
Trading Volume Analysis
Volume expansion above the current 24-hour volume of $6.06 million would provide additional conviction for upward movement. Current volume levels remain subdued, indicating weak conviction in either direction.
Timeframe Analysis
Hourly Timeframe
DOT shows a soft intraday downtrend right now. Price sits below both the 50- and 200-period EMA, typical of an intraday downtrend where bounces can be used to sell.
Daily Timeframe
DOT is in a strong downtrend right now. Price is below both the 50- and 200-period EMA, which is typical for a broader downtrend where bounces can be used to sell.
Weekly Timeframe
DOT is in a strong downtrend on the weekly picture. Price remains under the 50- and 200-period EMA, suggesting the bigger trend is still down and the market has not fully recovered yet.
Short-Term Outlook
Polkadot's decline is primarily a symptom of a macro-driven crypto sell-off, exacerbated by weak altcoin rotation. Altcoin sector weakness, with the Altcoin Season Index at 26, signaling capital remains defensive and not rotating into higher-beta assets like DOT.
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $68,000, DOT could consolidate near $1.25–$1.40; a break below its yearly low near $1.20 risks accelerating the downtrend.
Medium-Term Outlook
A decisive breakout above the $2.50 zone would be the first signal that market participants are ready to push beyond range-bound behavior. The next congestion zone lies around $3.50-$4.00. In case of a surge above $4.00 level, DOT price may see a gradual growth and may reach $7-8 target by the end of 2026.
The next big inflection point is March 14, 2026. Polkadot is expected to implement its first issuance cut and hard-cap shift, reducing new supply materially.
Volatility Assessment
Polkadot is estimated as 6.10% volatile. Volatility is elevated, so sharp moves in either direction are more likely and position sizing matters more, and ATR is about 7.8% of the current price.
