Spectacular rise of Ethereum: Are we on the verge of the altseason?

Recently, Ether (ETH), the native crypto of Ethereum, has seen notable momentum. The asset is currently flirting with the $3,000 mark. This has sparked hope among crypto enthusiasts about the continuation of this trend with a positive effect on altcoins. A question that clearly divides analysts and experts.

The Hope of an Altcoin Season Driven by Ethereum’s Ether (ETH)

The recent surge in the price of Ether (ETH), which has flirted with the $3,000 mark, has sparked hope for an impending “altseason” within the crypto community. However, analysts remain divided on the issue. On February 19, Ethereum’s native crypto reached an intraday high of $2,980. That’s its highest level in 22 months. Many enthusiasts believe this could herald the start of an ETH bull market and, consequently, an altcoin rally.

Henrik Andersson, Chief Investment Officer at Apollo Capital, highlighted several fundamental factors underpinning this sentiment. Among these are the upcoming updates to Ethereum and the mainnet launches for scaling solutions.

Furthermore, Ethereum’s relative underperformance compared to Bitcoin over the past year suggests a potential catch-up. Especially given its deflationary nature following the switch to Proof of Stake (PoS).

Yuga Cohler, Senior Director of Engineering at Coinbase, echoed similar sentiments. He notably highlights the correlation between an ETH bull market and positive outcomes for altcoins. Meanwhile, voices like that of Mikybull Crypto forecast a bullish March for the native asset of Ethereum blockchain, with $3,000 as a plausible target. He anticipates a significant increase in altcoin activity.

Hopefuls call for ‘#altseason’ led by #Ethererum rally, analysts not so sure https://t.co/LUxw2uzJVz

— MrMr4Nk De.Fi Army (@MrCr4nk) February 20, 2024

Dissenting Voices Regarding This Outlook

However, Markus Thielen, Head of 10x Research, holds an opposing view. According to him, there is a lack of substantial evidence for the eventuality of an impending altcoin season. He points out that sustainable reductions in Bitcoin’s (BTC) dominance below 45% are required to foster a viable altcoin rally.

The crypto expert also notes that unlike previous increases observed during the ICO and DeFi summer bull markets, the current rise lacks a clear explanation. Save for the influx of investments into spot Bitcoin ETFs. In addition, the recent altcoin rallies have quickly dissipated, suggesting a higher risk-adjusted potential in favor of investments in BTC.

Markus Thielen’s analysis also questions the sustainability of Ethereum’s momentum. He believes it could be more motivated by the anticipation of the ETF approvals in May than by an increase in on-chain activity within decentralized applications (dApps). For the analyst, the current bull market will persist until 2025, a period during which altcoins may experience sporadic recoveries.

Supporting Markus Thielen’s cautious outlook, blockchain analytics firm Santiment cautions against overbought signals on the market. As indicated by the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, it suggests above-average risk associated with buying or opening new positions during the current surge. This is while most crypto projects have generated medium and long-term profits since October 2023.