Top Story
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned Kalshi that it may face charges over how it filed dozens of new contracts. Politico reported the warning on 10 November at 21:34 UTC, citing a person with direct knowledge. The probe asks whether Kalshi properly notified the agency about the products, with a focus on the self-certification process.
Reuters reported the same day that the notification suggests charges "could come soon." No charges had been filed as of the reports, and the matter could still end in a settlement.
Kalshi described the issue as "a procedural error involving the submission of a handful of contracts, many of which weren't live," and said "we are already addressing the issue." Kalshi lists most of its contracts by self-certifying them to the CFTC, so the outcome could affect how new markets reach traders.
Several prediction markets apps carry Kalshi contracts. Robinhood's 9 November complaint against Missouri states that it currently routes sports-related event contract trades to Kalshi.
Biggest Market Moves
| Market | Venue | Price now | 24h change | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027) | Kalshi | 5¢ | -78 pts | $228,310 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Nov 21, 2026? (Before Nov 21, 2026) | Kalshi | 1¢ | -77 pts | $283,430 | |
| Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026 (Indianapolis Colts) | Kalshi | 98¢ | +47 pts | $704,469 | |
| Will Labour win the next New Zealand general election? (Labour) | Kalshi | 30¢ | +23.5 pts | $345,433 | |
| Will National win the next New Zealand general election? (National) | Kalshi | 70¢ | -22.4 pts | $548,334 |
Rep. Thomas Massie introduced eight articles of impeachment against Hegseth on 9 November. On 10 November, the House voted 211-204 to refer the resolution to committee, which effectively blocks it. Time reports that Democrats could revive the effort in January.
The Indianapolis Colts told Jonathan Taylor he would not be traded before the 10 November deadline, according to NFL reporter Tom Pelissero. Interested teams offered no more than a second-round pick.
Volume
Kalshi's rolling 24-hour volume was $70.86M at 12:00 UTC on 11 November 2026. Its 7-day volume was $554.05M, down 30.89% on the previous seven days.
Regulation and Courts
Arkansas sues Kalshi as a state action
Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin sued KalshiEX LLC and Kalshi Inc. in Independence County Circuit Court on 4 November. The complaint alleges illegal gambling, including sports and election contracts, and seeks an injunction, restitution, penalties and unpaid taxes. Follow the latest rulings in the prediction market litigation tracker.
On 9 November, Polymarket US and Crypto.com's OG.com filed federal suits against Arkansas officials. Both cite the Kalshi action.
Oklahoma tribal lawsuit over PokkeTrades
The Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town and Samuel Marshall Jr. sued Kalshi, CEO Tarek Mansour and two tribal officials. They seek to block an agreement for a prediction market app called PokkeTrades. KOSU reports the dispute is in Muscogee Nation tribal court and centres on a leadership dispute within the tribe. Marshall told Front Office Sports that Wilson Yargee had no authority to sign the deal.
Second Circuit amicus filings
Gary Gensler filed an amicus brief on 6 November in KalshiEX v. Williams, the New York appeal. He argues the Dodd-Frank Act did not place sports betting under CFTC control. Better Markets and a coalition of 27 federally recognized tribes have also filed briefs supporting New York. The appeal remains pending.
Company News
Kalshi plans to launch futures tracking US CPI and core CPI on 8 December, spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said on 10 November. The contracts have expiry dates and target institutional investors, not perpetual products.
Kalshi also announced a $1 million research program for up to 50 projects on midterm prediction markets. Covers reports that applications run until 18 November, with judging from 21 to 26 November.
Tomorrow Recycling announced a cardboard price hedge using a new Kalshi market, structured and priced by Susquehanna Predictions. The market was reported on 9 November.
What to Watch
- 13 November: Supreme Court response due in Robinhood's petition (No. 26-338). Tribal boundary maps are also due in the California injunction case.
- 16 November: Supreme Court response due in Crypto.com's exchange petition (No. 26-344).
- 18 November: Comment period closes on the CFTC's proposed definition of "swap."
- 21 November: The Hegseth "before Nov 21, 2026" market settles.
- 25 November: Kalshi's compliance report is due in the California case.
- 27 November: Official New Zealand election results are due.
- 8 December: Planned launch date for Kalshi's CPI futures.
For more, see today's prediction market news.