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A federal judge in New York has denied Novig's request to block state enforcement against its sports event contracts. Judge Colleen McMahon of the Southern District of New York issued a 35-page opinion on 10 November, denying Ludlow Exchange's motion for a preliminary injunction in case No. 1:26-cv-06676. The order concerns a product listed on one of the prediction markets platforms now facing state action.
The judge held that Novig's sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act at this stage of the case. That finding goes to the core of Novig's federal argument. New York may therefore apply its gambling and sports-wagering laws. The judge did not reach the other injunction factors. The Block reports the ruling.
Reporting says New York can require Novig to obtain a state gambling license or stop listing and trading sports event contracts. Commentators expect enforcement to move into state courts. The ruling is preliminary, so the underlying case continues. The same sports-contract question is before the Second Circuit in KalshiEX v. Williams, No. 26-1835.
Regulation and Courts
CFTC warns Kalshi of possible charges
Politico reported at 4:34 PM EST on 10 November that the CFTC warned Kalshi of potentially imminent charges. The probe concerns whether Kalshi properly notified the agency of dozens of new products through self-certification. KalshiEX filed self-certifications dated 9 November for NBA-related and precipitation contracts. No charges had been filed in reporting, and the CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.
Kalshi called the matter "a procedural error involving the submission of a handful of contracts, many of which weren't live." Crypto.news reports that Kalshi disputes the reported scale.
Kentucky sues Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase and Webull
Reports dated 10 November say Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman filed suits in Franklin Circuit Court against Kalshi and affiliates, including Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull. The suits allege unlicensed sportsbook operation and seek triple damages under the Loss Recovery Act, according to Gadget Review. Earlier entries in the prediction market litigation tracker list a Kentucky suit against the same firms dated 17 June. Whether the November filings are new suits remains unconfirmed.
Operators sue Missouri and Arkansas
Polymarket US, operated by QCX LLC, sued Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway on 9 November in the Eastern District of Missouri, No. 4:26-cv-01930. The 40-page complaint argues Commodity Exchange Act preemption and Commerce Clause claims. Robinhood Derivatives filed a separate suit that day against Hanaway and six Gaming Commission officials, citing a 16 September cease-and-desist. The case is No. 4:26-cv-01932, as Robinhood prediction markets news details.
Missouri filed counterclaims against Novig on 9 November under the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act and the Merchandising Practices Act. It also seeks a public-nuisance declaration, per RG. Underdog sued on 8 November, and reports disagree on the court. Kalshi moved for a restraining order on 6 November. North American Derivatives Exchange sought a preliminary injunction on 8 November, and Missouri's opposition is due 23 November. More Missouri filings are listed in prediction markets in Missouri.
Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin sued KalshiEX and Kalshi Inc. on 4 November in Independence County Circuit Court. The complaint alleges the contracts are casino gaming under state law. On 9 November, QCX LLC sued Griffin and seven Arkansas Racing Commission members in the Western District of Arkansas, per DeFi Rate. North American Derivatives Exchange, which operates OG.com, filed in the Eastern District of Arkansas, No. 4:26-cv-01226-KGB, before Judge Kristine G. Baker.
Oklahoma tribal town sues Kalshi
The Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town and Samuel Marshall Jr. sued Kalshi, CEO Tarek Mansour, Wilson Yargee and Michael Stopp in Muscogee (Creek) Nation District Court. The complaint was filed 30 October. It seeks a declaration that the tribal town is not bound by the PokkeTrades agreement. Oklahoma Voice reports it also seeks a temporary restraining order to stop the app launching this month.
Company News
On 8 November, Polymarket said the CFTC approved its return to the U.S. as an intermediated contract market, effective immediately. The amended designation order lets Polymarket US connect U.S. customers directly with brokers, per SectorWire. Reporting on 9 November says the new fee schedule charges 4.75% to traders with under $10,000 in 30-day taker volume. The rate falls to 3.475% at $250,000 or more.
Polymarket told CNBC on 10 November that annualized revenue has topped $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June. The company described this as a run rate, not audited results. It is pursuing a roughly $1 billion round at a reported $21 billion post-money valuation, which has not been announced as complete. More on Polymarket is in Polymarket news. New markets will launch in phases on 23 November, 24 November and 1 December.
Kalshi plans to launch futures tracking U.S. CPI and core inflation on 8 December, according to communications director Elisabeth Diana. The contracts will have expiration dates and target institutional investors. Kalshi began offering perpetual contracts earlier in 2026. Kalshi news covers the launch plan, and Binance News reports the date.
Robinhood earned about 1.05 cents per event contract in Q3 2026, down from 1.15 cents in Q2, according to Finance Magnates. That is about 8% less, while trading rose 21%.
Cboe is listing KPI binary options on 23 U.S. companies. Each pays $1 if the stated KPI condition is met, and Cboe Clear U.S. clears them. Cboe named Robinhood as launch partner in September and expects a November launch, pending market-maker readiness.
On 10 November, DraftKings reported Q3 revenue growth of 16% and cut its 2026 earnings outlook as prediction-market spending rose, per SportsbookReview. Its 2026 Predictions spending is now $650 million to $700 million, up from $200 million to $300 million. Adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to $175 million to $275 million, from $700 million to $900 million, according to TIKR.
What to Watch
- 13 November: Coinbase's end date for sports event contracts in Ohio.
- 13 November: Nevada's response due on Robinhood's Supreme Court petition, No. 26-338, per the tracker. A later extension to 7 December has been reported but not confirmed in the docket.
- 18 November: Comment deadline on the CFTC's proposed swap definition, proposed 9 October, per the Federal Register and secondary reporting.
- 23 November: Missouri's opposition to North American Derivatives Exchange's injunction motion is due.
- 23 November, 24 November and 1 December: Polymarket V2 phased market launches.
- 24 November: Show-cause hearing before Judge Aquilina, per Prediction Market Laws. Not verified against a court filing.
- 7 December: Kalshi's response due in New Jersey's Supreme Court petition, No. 26-299, per Gaming America.
- 8 December: Kalshi CPI and core CPI futures launch.
- 2 February 2027: Deadline for Kalshi to seek Supreme Court review of the Ninth Circuit Nevada ruling, per NextPredict.