Aptos (APT) Market Decline Amid Regulatory Progress and Technical Headwinds

Aptos (APT) fell 12.7% on February 2, 2026, as the entire CoinDesk 20 index dropped, reflecting deep market-wide selling pressure. The token is down 7.61% in the last 24 hours, with the live price trading at $1.07 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $177,042,612 USD.

Price Action and Technical Outlook

With a price decline of -23.00% in the last 7 days, Aptos is underperforming the global cryptocurrency market which is down -16.20%. Analysts eye a technical bounce from oversold levels toward $1.41–$1.90, but warn the trend is still bearish. Watch for APT's ability to hold the $1.55–$1.40 support zone; a decisive break above $1.95 would be the first sign of a meaningful trend shift.

Quantum-Resistant Security Initiative

Aptos Labs has proposed AIP-137 to integrate SLH-DSA, a U.S. NIST-standardized quantum-resistant signature scheme, as an optional layer for user accounts. This preemptive move aims to protect against future quantum computing threats. This demonstrates proactive, institutional-grade security planning, which could bolster trust among major partners like BlackRock.

Developer Tools Enhancement

Aptos improved developer tooling by integrating Alchemy support and providing LLM-ready documentation. These upgrades aim to reduce onboarding friction and accelerate dApp development.

Token Unlock Pressure

APT's next token unlock is scheduled for February 10 (3 days away), which will release 11.31M APT tokens ($12.81M), representing 0.95% of the total supply. Despite strong ecosystem revenue and RWA growth, monthly token unlocks and competitive pressure keep sentiment cautious.

Market Position

The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #59, with a live market cap of $819,958,855 USD. The consensus on Aptos is mixed, balancing strong fundamental progress against persistent technical and tokenomic headwinds. While the ecosystem is maturing with institutional adoption and record revenue, price action remains trapped in a bearish structure, sensitive to monthly unlocks.

Aptos (APT) 24-Hour Price Analysis

Current Price and Performance

APT is trading at $1.13 with a 24-hour gain of 9.87%, representing a notable recovery from recent lows. The token's market capitalization stands at $865.14 million with 24-hour trading volume of $137.94 million.

Key Market Factors

Technical Bounce from Oversold Conditions

APT hit an all-time low of $0.9224 on February 6, 2026, representing a 16.01% recovery from that floor. This sharp rebound reflects a technical bounce from severely oversold levels, with analysts eyeing a potential bounce toward $1.41–$1.90 resistance levels.

Broader Market Context

The 24-hour gain must be contextualized within recent weakness. Over the past 7 days, APT has declined 21.76%, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market which is down 16.20%. On February 2, 2026, APT fell 12.7% as the entire CoinDesk 20 index dropped, with the sell-off driven by broad crypto market sentiment rather than Aptos-specific news.

Upcoming Token Unlock Pressure

APT's next token unlock is scheduled for February 10, which will release 11.31 million APT tokens ($12.81 million), representing 0.95% of total supply. Monthly token unlocks and competitive pressure continue to weigh on sentiment.

Positive Ecosystem Developments

Aptos enhanced developer tools by integrating Alchemy support and providing LLM-ready documentation, aiming to reduce onboarding friction and accelerate dApp development.

Technical Indicators

The 24-hour gain reflects a technical correction within a broader downtrend. While analysts eye a technical bounce from oversold levels, the trend remains bearish, suggesting today's price movement may represent temporary relief rather than a sustained reversal.

Aptos (APT) Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Sentiment Assessment

Current sentiment is bearish while the Fear & Greed Index is showing 24 (Extreme Fear). Technical indicators suggest the current market feeling is bearish at 86%, with a Fear & Greed Index score of 14 (Extreme Fear). The market exhibits a pronounced risk-off environment with limited bullish conviction.

Price Performance and Technical Indicators

APT represents a 1.60% price increase in the last 24 hours and a -22.90% price decline in the past 7 days. With a price decline of -23.00% in the last 7 days, Aptos (APT) is underperforming the global cryptocurrency market which is down -16.20%.

Technical analysis reveals oversold conditions with limited recovery conviction. APT's sustained bearish trend confirms the price breaking below the $4.32 support level that held for most of 2025, with the token hitting a new all-time low of $1.14, with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicating persistent capital outflows.

Trading Patterns and Market Dynamics

With 7-day volatility at 54%, APT's 24h volume ($79.3M) suggests short-term traders dominate price action. The trading volume of Aptos (APT) is $222,448,921.95 in the last 24 hours, representing a 69.50% increase from one day ago and signalling a recent rise in market activity.

Aptos chatter is a tug-of-war between oversold bounce hopes and persistent unlock jitters, with analysts eyeing a technical bounce from oversold levels toward $1.41–$1.90, but warning the trend is still bearish, while despite strong ecosystem revenue and RWA growth, monthly token unlocks and competitive pressure keep sentiment cautious.

Macro Market Headwinds

The CoinDesk 20 Index fell 9.3% on February 2, 2026, with every constituent asset declining, and Aptos (APT) was among the hardest hit, losing 12.7%, indicating the sell-off was driven by broad crypto market sentiment rather than Aptos-specific news.

Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.52% (24h +0.05%), signaling capital rotation away from alts, and the Fear & Greed Index at 21 ("Extreme Fear") – lowest since Nov 2025, suppressing speculative altcoin demand.

Institutional and Ecosystem Developments

The Aptos Foundation reported $1.8B in stablecoin supply and $1.2B in real-world assets (RWAs) as of mid-January 2026, BlackRock's BUIDL fund deployed over $500M on the network, and the first U.S.-regulated Aptos futures launched on Bitnomial Exchange in January 2026, a step toward potential ETF eligibility.

However, this demand is often long-term and may not immediately translate to price spikes, especially in a risk-off market.

Token Unlock Pressure

APT's next token unlock is scheduled for February 10 (3 days away), which will release 11.31M APT tokens ($12.81M), representing 0.95% of the total supply. Monthly token unlocks and competitive pressure keep sentiment cautious.

Community Sentiment

The community is bullish about Aptos (APT) today, though this contrasts sharply with technical bearish indicators and macro headwinds, suggesting a disconnect between community optimism and market price action.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

$APT trades at $1.24 in oversold territory with RSI at 27.60, with technical analysis suggesting potential bounce to $1.41 resistance, but bearish momentum persists below key moving averages, framing any price rise as a temporary, oversold correction within a larger downtrend, with $1.41 acting as a cap.

APTOS (APT) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Current Market Status

APT trades at $1.24 in oversold territory with RSI at 27.60. The token is currently ranked #70 by market cap at $865.1M with 24-hour trading volume of $137.9M.

Price Performance:

• 1-hour change: -0.25%
• 24-hour change: +9.87%
• 7-day change: -21.76%

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Key Support & Resistance Levels

Primary Support Levels

Aptos has support levels of $1.52, $1.49, and the strongest at $1.46. Watch for APT's ability to hold the $1.55–$1.40 support zone.

Primary Resistance Levels

Aptos resistance levels are at $1.58, $1.61, and $1.64. Analysts eye a technical bounce from oversold levels toward $1.41–$1.90.

Critical Breakout Levels

A decisive break above $1.95 would be the first sign of a meaningful trend shift.

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Technical Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI at 27.60 indicates oversold territory. The RSI value is at 38.55, which indicates that the APT market is in a neutral position (based on alternative data sources).

Moving Averages

Aptos's 200-day SMA will drop in the next month and will hit $2.96 by Feb 22, 2026. Aptos's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $1.52 by Feb 22, 2026.

MACD

MACD histogram shows bearish momentum persists below key moving averages.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands analysis reveals APT trading near the lower band with a %B position of 0.1510, historically a favorable entry zone.

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Chart Patterns & Analysis

Trend Structure

Price action remains trapped in a bearish structure, sensitive to monthly unlocks. The token established an ascending channel pattern before testing resistance near $1.649 and settling at current levels.

Volume Analysis

Institutional buying, as evidenced by the 35% volume surge, suggested that some market participants viewed the selloff as an opportunity to accumulate at discounted levels.

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Short-Term Outlook (1-7 Days)

Bearish momentum persists below key moving averages. Analysts eye a technical bounce from oversold levels toward $1.41–$1.90, but warn the trend is still bearish.

Key Watch Points:

• APT's ability to hold the $1.57 support level could be a key determinant of its near-term direction
• The $1.64–$1.655 resistance cluster as a critical area for the token. A successful breakout from this level would not only validate the recent accumulation but also set up a more aggressive target

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Medium-Term Outlook (1-4 Weeks)

The consensus on Aptos is mixed, balancing strong fundamental progress against persistent technical and tokenomic headwinds. While the ecosystem is maturing with institutional adoption and record revenue, price action remains trapped in a bearish structure.

Bullish Scenario: Analysts eye a technical bounce from oversold levels toward $1.41–$1.90.

Bearish Scenario: Monthly token unlocks and competitive pressure keep sentiment cautious.

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Risk Factors

• Monthly token unlocks and competitive pressure keep sentiment cautious
• Price action remains trapped in a bearish structure, sensitive to monthly unlocks
• The significant gap to the 200-day moving average at $3.58 also suggests potential overhead resistance in any sustained rally

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