Jupiter (JUP) Daily Market Analysis 16 February 2026

Jupiter (JUP) Proposes Zero-Emission Strategy Amid Market Pressure

Jupiter, the decentralized exchange aggregator operating within the Solana ecosystem, is considering a major tokenomic shift aimed at achieving what it describes as "zero net JUP emissions," under a newly introduced proposal that would temporarily eliminate net new JUP token releases and delay its anticipated Jupuary airdrop. In parallel, the project's decentralized autonomous organization would offset any token sales with open-market buybacks in an effort to neutralize supply impact.

Recent Price Movement and Market Performance

The trading volume of Jupiter (JUP) is $44,478,207.15 in the last 24 hours, representing a -7.90% decrease from one day ago and signalling a recent fall in market activity. The token currently trades at $0.1616, down 4.35% over the past 24 hours and up 1.5% over the past week. Market capitalization of Jupiter (JUP) is $541,928,180 and is ranked #95 on CoinGecko today.

Jupiter Lend Launches After Beta Phase

Jupiter's money market, Jupiter Lend, officially launched after a six-month beta, accumulating 83,000 users, completing 7 audits, and reporting zero bad debt. This represents a significant expansion of Jupiter's ecosystem beyond its core DEX aggregation services.

Strategic Funding and Ecosystem Expansion

Jupiter secured a $35 million strategic investment from venture firm ParaFi Capital in early February 2026, settled in its native JupUSD stablecoin, marking Jupiter's first major external capital raise with funds earmarked for protocol development, security enhancements, and broader ecosystem growth.

Polymarket Integration and Product Development

Jupiter integrated with prediction market platform Polymarket, launching a "Predictions" feature directly within its Solana app, expanding Jupiter's utility beyond swaps into speculative markets and targeting a new user segment.

Jupuary Airdrop Adjustments

The final "Jupuary" airdrop program concluded with a snapshot on January 30, 2026, allocating 200 million JUP to active swappers, lenders, and governance participants, with an additional 200 million JUP reserved for stakers, significantly scaled down from an initial 700 million plan to reduce post-airdrop selling pressure.

Upcoming Initiatives

JUPNET Launch is a next-phase infrastructure project aimed at enhancing the platform's capabilities and utility. Major 2026 upgrades include Mobile V3, balancing growth with dilution concerns.

Jupiter (JUP) 24-Hour Price Analysis

Current Price and Performance

Jupiter is trading at $0.161170 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $41,838,791 USD. The token has declined 2.89% in the last 24 hours, though data sources show slight variations with some reporting a 4.35% decline.

Market Context and Broader Decline

JUP's decline today reflects broader cryptocurrency market weakness. SOL's price decreased by 11.94%, ETH's price decreased by 7.89%, and BTC's price decreased by 8.22% during the same period, indicating that JUP's underperformance is part of a wider market downturn rather than token-specific weakness.

Technical Deterioration

The token is now residing below all major moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34 indicates potential for fresh losses before an oversold bounce. Prices also fell after a breakdown of a parallel channel on the daily chart.

Trading Activity

The trading volume of Jupiter (JUP) is $44,478,207.15 in the last 24 hours, representing a -7.90% decrease from one day ago and signalling a recent fall in market activity.

Market Sentiment

The sentiment in the Jupiter markets is currently Bearish, and the Fear & Greed index is reading Extreme Fear. 6 indicators are currently signaling a bullish prediction for Jupiter, while 22 indicators are showing a bearish forecast, with 79% of indicators favoring a negative prediction.

Upcoming Catalyst Risk

JUP's next token unlock is scheduled for February 28 (13 days away), which will release 253.47M JUP tokens ($42.34M), representing 3.7% of the total supply. This upcoming unlock may be contributing to selling pressure and bearish sentiment.

Jupiter (JUP) Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Sentiment: Mixed with Bearish Undertones

The community is bullish about Jupiter (JUP) today, yet this optimism contrasts sharply with underlying market pressures. The sentiment in the Jupiter markets is currently Bearish, and the Fear & Greed index is reading Extreme Fear. Fear sentiment levels of 29 surround JUP, with the price moving between $0.1465 support and $0.1582 resistance.

Price Performance and Technical Positioning

The price of Jupiter (JUP) is $0.1670 today with a 24-hour trading volume of $44,478,207.15. This represents a 7.30% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 2.50% price increase in the past 7 days. However, Jupiter has been displaying a negative trend recently, as the coin lost -32.52% in the last 30-days. The medium-term trend for Jupiter has been bearish, with JUP dropping by -54.87% in the last 3 months. The long-term picture for Jupiter has been negative, as JUP is currently displaying a -82.94% 1-year price change.

Social Media and Community Sentiment

JUP's community is buzzing with product launches but growing impatient for token momentum. This is bearish for JUP sentiment as it highlights growing community frustration over the disconnect between strong product development and a lack of positive price action or direct token utility catalysts. Once one of the most loved coins on Twitter. Now it's rarely mentioned or mentioned negatively.

Trader Positioning and Market Indicators

Despite 6.9% weekly gains, funding rates turned negative (-0.0025453%), signaling bearish derivatives sentiment. RSI 53.42 shows neutral momentum with key resistance at $0.223 (23.6% Fib level). 72% of JUP is held by 10 wallets, creating liquidation risks during volatility.

Volume increased by 35.3% on Jupiter in the past week compared to previous weeks, averaging $425.5M per day, compared to $314.6M on average in the three weeks prior.

Recent Sentiment Shifts and Catalysts

Positive Developments:

In the first week of February, Jupiter secured a $35 million strategic investment from ParaFi Capital. The round was settled using Jupiter's own JupUSD stablecoin, with ParaFi agreeing to a long-term lock-up of the purchased JUP tokens. This funding occurred amid a severe market downturn where the crypto sector lost nearly $2 trillion in value, highlighting sustained institutional belief in Jupiter's infrastructure role on Solana.

The team highlights relentless product shipping and ecosystem growth, building fundamental strength. Traders spot bullish chart patterns, projecting a near-term price target of $0.2263.

Negative Pressures:

This presents a mixed view: bullish for JUP's ecosystem strength and user growth from new products, but bearish on near-term token price due to high supply inflation from airdrops and persistent sell pressure.

Jupiter proposes a "go green" strategy to achieve zero net JUP emissions by pausing new token releases, delaying the Jupuary airdrop, and offsetting any token sales with open-market buybacks in an effort to neutralize supply impact.

Monthly unlocks of 53M JUP continue through June 2026, adding ~$11.7M sell pressure monthly at current prices.

Supply and Tokenomic Concerns

JUP's next token unlock is scheduled for February 28 (13 days away), which will release 253.47M JUP tokens ($42.34M), representing 3.7% of the total supply. This upcoming unlock represents a significant near-term headwind for price appreciation.

Market Structure Assessment

Jupiter is currently struggling to break above short-term resistance levels, as it is trading below them. The moving averages are very close to each other, which usually results in consolidation, and the momentum indicators are showing neutral conditions. The volume is still moderate, and hence there is no strong directional bias.

Jupiter (JUP) Technical Analysis

Current Market Overview

JUP is trading at $0.1670 with a 7.30% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 2.50% price increase in the past 7 days. The token maintains a market capitalization of approximately $525-541 million with daily trading volume around $33-44 million.

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Key Support Levels

Primary Support Zones:

• $0.1465 support level
• $0.2050 support level with significant weight from repeated buyer attempts
• $0.1980 as secondary support if $0.2050 breaks
• $0.133891, $0.130430, and $0.124499 as important support levels to watch

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Key Resistance Levels

Primary Resistance Zones:

• $0.1582 resistance level
• $0.2150 resistance acting as a barrier to short-term price moves
• $0.2400-$0.2500 orange supply area serving as main upside target
• $0.143282, $0.149212, and $0.152673 as key resistance levels

Extended Targets (on breakout): If breakout occurs above the falling wedge, potential targets are $0.2344, $0.2746, $0.3071, $0.3395, and $0.3857

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Technical Indicators

Momentum Indicators:

• RSI at 38.53 suggests mild oversold conditions, while MACD shows bearish momentum (-0.00334 histogram)
• MACD continues in bearish crossover pattern with diverging momentum dynamics; RSI oscillating within neutral zone indicating limited short-term momentum concentration
• RSI value of 27.19 indicates oversold conditions

Moving Averages:

• Price is in consolidation phase near compressed EMA cluster, with 20-day and 50-day EMAs signaling market uncertainty about next move
• Jupiter trading above SMA 50 trendline (bullish signal) and above SMA 200 (signaling bullish market)

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Chart Patterns

Daily Timeframe:

• JUP is moving inside a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart with RSI suggesting potential upward move
• Currently in recovery phase after forming a base, with price just broken out of intermediate consolidation zone
• Moving averages very close together resulting in consolidation with neutral momentum indicators suggesting price compression rather than trend exhaustion

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Volume Analysis

Trading volume of $44,478,207.15 in last 24 hours represents -7.90% decrease from one day ago, signalling recent fall in market activity. Consistent trading volume and sustained interest in Solana-based DeFi infrastructure support JUP despite limited short-term catalysts.

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Timeframe Analysis

Hourly Timeframe:

• Price currently operating in upper half of pivot structure with only 2.4% gap remaining to reach upper R2 resistance at 0.2115

Daily Timeframe:

• JUP broke below 7-day SMA ($0.343) and 30-day SMA ($0.371), accelerating selling; RSI-7 at 26.89 signals extreme short-term oversold conditions but lacks bullish divergence

Weekly Timeframe:

• Token could rise 6-10%, retracing to $0.225-$0.23 range by next week if current support levels maintained, though declining volume might prevent strong upward momentum accumulation

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Short-Term Outlook

JUP expected to remain mildly bullish around $0.21 mark with potential 3-5% rise to $0.218 within next day; momentum indicator shows neutral conditions suggesting slow, steady move without major breakout unless market sentiment improves.

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Medium-Term Outlook

The move appears corrective within a broader downtrend. 6 indicators currently signaling bullish prediction while 22 indicators showing bearish forecast. Decline reflects mix of technical weakness, Solana ecosystem headwinds, and bearish sentiment around governance proposals.