STORY (IP) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Current Market Status
Story (IP) is trading at $2.40 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $187.59 million. The token ranks #86 by market cap with a fully diluted valuation of $2.45 billion and 349 million available supply.
Price Performance:
- 1-hour change: +1.02%
- 24-hour change: -1.65%
- 7-day change: -10.4%
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Primary Support Levels
IP is consolidating near its major support at $2.40, with resistance at $4.00. Additional support zones include:
- $2.30–$2.50: Current consolidation base with buyer defense
- $1.94: 50% Fibonacci retracement level (critical historical threshold)
- $1.37–$1.50: Long-term demand zone from earlier accumulation phases
- $1.80–$2.00: Secondary support before deeper breakdown risk
Primary Resistance Levels
The first major resistance level for IP is at $2.16, and if the price manages to break above this level, the next resistance levels to watch out for are $2.86 and $3.72.
Additional resistance zones:
- $2.86–$3.10: Intermediate resistance with 20-day EMA alignment
- $3.20–$3.50: Major supply area with declining moving averages
- $4.00: Key psychological and technical resistance
- $5.30–$5.40: 100-day and 200-day EMA convergence zone
Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 76.96, indicating Overbought conditions. However, The RSI at ~37 suggests bearish momentum is easing, but it's still below the neutral line, signaling stabilization rather than a trend reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.06638) for the first time in two weeks, signaling shifting momentum. This represents a potential shift from bearish to neutral conditions.
Moving Averages
Story price sits above the 10, 20 EMAs, but it's below long-term 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. This indicates short-term stabilization with longer-term bearish pressure.
Chart Patterns & Structure
Descending Triangle Formation
The one-hour chart shows that STORY's price action has been consolidating within a descending triangle since the $8 peak on Feb. 20, indicating a corrective wave sequence after a strong five-wave impulsive rally.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The correction structure resembles a classic ABC pattern, with wave C bottoming at the triangle's lower trendline.
Breakout Scenarios
If the price successfully breaks above the triangle resistance, the next key target will be the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4.67, followed by the 0.382 retracement at $5.46. A clean breakout would likely see wave (iii) extend towards the $4.80–$5.00 region.
Volume Analysis
Volume has expanded during the rebound, indicating genuine participation rather than thin, low-liquidity spikes. A spike in volume upon breakout would confirm a bullish reversal.
Current 24-hour volume of $187.59 million represents moderate liquidity relative to market cap, with volume expansion needed to confirm directional moves.
Timeframe Analysis
Hourly (1H)
The RSI on the 15-minute chart is hovering near neutral territory, suggesting a buildup of momentum. Short-term consolidation with potential for intraday breakouts.
Daily (1D)
The daily chart indicates that the initial point of resistance on the upside is located at the $2.16 level. Additionally, there is another resistance level at $2.32 based on the exponential moving average.
Weekly (1W)
The broader structure remains range-bound between $2.3 and $4.0, with a slight bearish tilt until IP reclaims the short-term EMAs.
Short-Term Outlook (1–7 Days)
If IP can continue to hold the $2.3–$2.5 base, the path is a gradual recovery toward $3.1–$3.2, and $3.9–$4.0, where sellers could re-enter.
If the price gets rejected at resistance, a final push downward to complete wave E of a larger ABCDE corrective pattern is possible. This scenario could drive the price toward the $3.40–$3.60 region before buyers enter.
Medium-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
Assuming a decisive daily close above $4.00, the IP price prediction model targets $5.30–$5.40 in the next 30 days.
A drop below $2.3 would confirm renewed weakness, exposing $1.8–$2.0 as the next downside target.
Risk Factors
A key factor to watch is the upcoming vesting schedule: significant token unlocks for early backers and core contributors will begin in March 2026, potentially increasing market supply and volatility.
75% of supply remains locked until 2026, risking dilution.
Sources:
- https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/story-ip-descending-triangle-resistance/
- https://www.coinlore.com/coin/story-protocol/forecast/price-prediction
- https://ventureburn.com/ip-price-prediction/
- https://coindcx.com/blog/price-predictions/story-protocol-ip-price-weekly/
- https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/story-protocol/price-analysis/
- https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/story-ip-price-surges-as-buyers-return-can-the-rally-extend-toward-5/
- https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/story-ip-price-strong-breakout/
- https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/story-protocol/
