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Ohio's governor said on 20 October that the state will sue prediction market operators that do not comply with cease-and-desist orders. Robinhood Derivatives is one of the firms that received them. The Ohio Casino Control Commission sent 10 letters on 2 October, citing the Sixth Circuit's 25 September ruling and giving recipients until 16 October to confirm compliance.
The letters reach several prediction markets apps that offer sports contracts, including Robinhood's hub. Robinhood's Ohio notice also reasserts a 31 March 2025 commission order to stop sports event contracts in the state.
The Ohio Capital Journal reported on 20 October that the largest platforms had not shut down their sports trading sections in Ohio. Most were still live and unchanged at the close of business on 17 October. Interim Attorney General Andy Wilson said the state's position is that "the law is on our side."
Basis Desk reported on 22 October that Wilson is preparing lawsuits. No filing against Robinhood is confirmed in the sources reviewed. Polymarket US, operated by QCX LLC, sued Ohio officials in the Southern District of Ohio on 16 October. That venue is separate from polymarket.com.
No court has ruled on the state's position. For case updates, see the latest rulings and prediction markets in Ohio.
Regulation and Courts
Missouri deadline passes without a Robinhood suit
Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters on 16 and 17 September to six firms, including Robinhood Derivatives. Compliance was due by 16 October. On that date, Crypto.com's exchange and Novig filed suits seeking to block the state.
Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket and Underdog had not filed comparable suits by the following weekend, according to Crowdfund Insider. RotoWire describes Robinhood's position as "ongoing discussions" with the attorney general.
CFTC proposes wider swap definition and excludes sportsbook wagers
On 9 October the CFTC proposed defining "swap" to include event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather. The proposal was published in the Federal Register on 19 October, with comments due 18 November.
The same day, the agency adopted an interim final rule, effective 19 October, stating that sportsbook and casino wagers are not swaps. The proposal is not law, and its effect on the court disputes over event contracts is disputed.
Company News
KPI contracts. The SEC approved Cboe Global Markets' plan to list binary options tied to key performance indicators of 23 U.S.-listed companies, in an order dated 13 October. Each contract pays $1 if the prediction is correct and nothing if it is wrong. Robinhood is expected to be the first retail broker to offer them.
The contracts settle on figures in companies' SEC filings, such as Coinbase's trading volume and Robinhood's customer count. They clear through Cboe's clearinghouse, not through Kalshi, ForecastEX or Rothera. Trading has not started, and Cboe Clear U.S. is still waiting on temporary registration. No launch date has been set.
Rothera and volume. Rothera, the CFTC-licensed exchange Robinhood built with Susquehanna, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launch. FIFA World Cup markets drove about 93% of that volume. CEO Vlad Tenev said the prediction markets unit traded roughly 2.5 billion event contracts in October, more than in all of the third quarter. This is a company statement, not an independently verified figure.
What to Watch
- Ohio lawsuits: The attorney general has not set a filing date. Robinhood's status depends on whether it complies with the 2 October letter.
- 28 October: A Fed rate decision market on Robinhood's hub resolves.
- Late October: Robinhood's third-quarter earnings are expected, according to Investor's Business Daily. No date is confirmed.
- 13 November: Nevada's response is due to Robinhood's Supreme Court petition, No. 26-338.
- 18 November: The CFTC comment deadline on the proposed swap definition closes.
For market-wide coverage, see today's prediction market news.