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Market Cycles - Bitcoin Halving

<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>After 6 years in the crypto market and thousands of hours learning how to trade full time, this is by far the most important information I’ve found for anyone investing in crypto and for some reason I very rarely see it mentioned </p> <p>The bitcoin halving </p> <p>This is what the previous bitcoin market cycles have ALL been based around </p> <p>This is an event that happens roughly every 4 years and essentially halves the rewards given to miners causing an inherent increase in demand as the cost of mining a bitcoin doubles. </p> <p>Why this doesn’t get talked about more often is something I really don’t understand</p> <p>The reason crypto doesn’t just go up forever is because markets are cyclical The markets are cyclical because eventually, everyone who was going to buy, has And then the most money to be made is to the downside</p> <p>I don’t care how many times I hear Blackrock Vanguard Microsoft Google PayPal Visa Elon Musk China El Salvador John McAfee bulls*it</p> <p>BTC(and every other market…)has always followed a pattern</p> <p>1.Accumulation (Slow sideways low volatility market for 3-6 months at the lows) this always starts about 12 months before the bull run </p> <p>2.Mark up (bull market) usually starts about 6 months before the halving </p> <p>3.Distribution (where the sellers start re entering the market, you can spot this through volume) Usually about 1 year after the halving </p> <ol> <li>Mark down phase (this is where we’re at now) - where retail traders keep anticipating the bottom and getting sh*t on over and over again until we get closer to the halving </li> </ol> <p>Then back to accumulation </p> <p>After a huge sentiment killing bear market, BTC will sit in a low volatility sideways accumulation zone at the lows as the big boys scoop as much BTC as they can for as little as possible. (This gives you PLENTY of time to position)</p> <p>It doesn’t make sense for them to just run the market straight up because then the big boys need to pay more for their BTC.</p> <p>In order for them to keep BTC at them lows they need to kill retail sentiment beforehand so that retail doesn’t rush into the market and drive prices up before they’re ready to run BTC up.</p> <p>The way they do this is by doing exactly what we’re seeing now</p> <p>“Btc has never gone under previous cycles ATH, 200 weekly MA etc etc etc” </p> <p>So buyers rush in at these levels just to get crushed again </p> <p>Then they’ll do the same thing at 15k</p> <p>And probably the same thing once again at 10k</p> <p>This is to disenchant retail buyers, kill sentiment and elude to the fact that once again “crypto is dead”</p> <p>After the market has been driven down so hard that the majority of investors lose interest (and money) then the big boys will start accumulating at the lowest prices possible </p> <p>This will only happen once the majority of retail has stopped providing liquidity on the other side of the trade for the big boys to sell into </p> <p>In other words, we need to get SO low that no one wants to touch BTC anymore</p> <p>THEN, we get close to the halving and enter a mark up phase.</p> <p>After the halving BTC will then cost more to mine and so it provides the perfect catalyst to start pushing up the market </p> <p>The markup phase is when the market starts to run up hard, regaining retail traders attention and positive news articles etc </p> <p>Anyway there’s a little bit more to understanding liquidity and institutional positioning but most of you don’t really care about any of that </p> <p>HOW DOES THIS MAKE YOU MONEY? Be real, you didn’t buy cumrocket and shiva because you’re “in it for the tech”</p> <p>The way you make money out of this is very simple</p> <p>Markets work in phases and these are actually very easily identifiable </p> <p>there are 4 phases </p> <p>Accumulation Mark up Distribution Mark down</p> <p>Accumulation generally has 3 sub phases </p> <p>Accumulation Expansion Reaccumulation</p> <p>If you’re worried about trying to catch a falling knife then you just need to wait for the first leg of expansion and enter in the reaccumulation zone</p> <p>These accumulation zones are very easily identifiable because they’re low volatility, low volume, sideways ranges at the bottom of a massive move down </p> <p>You’ll know when BTC is in an accumulation phase because 95% of this group will cease to be active or only pop their head in to tell you how much of an idiot you are </p> <p>This shows you maximum pain is here and is the perfect time for the big boys to accumulate </p> <p>Below is a chart i made at the start of this market cycle showing how you can identify the structure to see where we’re at</p> <p>As you can see, we haven’t even started to enter an accumulation phase we’re still very much in the “bear market” mark down phase </p> <p>You’re not missing anything </p> <p>Relax and make sure you’ve got some capital left over for the supreme lows </p> <p>And before anyone says ”no one can pick a bottom”</p> <p>I did</p> <p>-Howard C Shakleford (Facebook AMPToken Group)</p> <p><a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/CUXfJpb6gfiRPwwH6">https://photos.app.goo.gl/CUXfJpb6gfiRPwwH6</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON -->   submitted by   <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Hurry-Zealousideal"> /u/Hurry-Zealousideal </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/vc60t6/market_cycles_bitcoin_halving/">[link]</a></span>   <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/vc60t6/market_cycles_bitcoin_halving/">[comments]</a></span>