Bitcoin Holds Critical Support as Analyst Signals $105K Path Remains Dominant

• Bitcoin holds key support as analyst signals strong continuation probability
• Compression phase builds momentum toward potential breakout above $105K soon
• Bearish scenario remains unlikely unless Bitcoin loses critical moving average support

Bitcoin’s price action has entered a decisive phase, drawing close attention from market participants tracking long-term cycles. Recent movements show the asset consolidating around a key support level, which historically determines whether momentum continues or weakens. This development has intensified focus on macro structure rather than short-term volatility.

Mid-Cycle Support Holds as Historical Patterns Signal Continuation

According to crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin is currently sitting on its mid-cycle support, represented by a red moving average on the chart. He explained that this level has consistently acted as a turning point in previous cycles, often separating continuation phases from broader corrections. Consequently, holding this support keeps the prevailing trend intact and reinforces expectations of further upside.

Moreover, the analyst highlighted that similar structures appeared in earlier cycles, where Bitcoin briefly interacted with both red and orange moving averages before expanding significantly. This recurring behavior suggests that the current consolidation phase may not indicate weakness, but rather a buildup toward a larger move. Additionally, compression within this range signals reduced volatility, which often precedes strong directional expansion.

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Furthermore, EGRAG CRYPTO outlined a primary bullish scenario that remains dominant as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above the red moving average. He noted that sustained support at this level signals strength, while the absence of a confirmed breakdown supports the continuation thesis. As a result, the analyst identified $105,000 as the first major target, followed by a potential expansion toward $165,000.

At the same time, he emphasized that the broader structure remains intact despite short-term fluctuations. The chart shows consistent cycle timing, with each phase following a pattern of consolidation before expansion. Therefore, current conditions align with historical trends where Bitcoin prepares for upward movement after prolonged compression.

Bearish Scenario Remains Conditional as Breakdown Trigger Stays Unmet

However, the analyst also addressed a lower-probability bearish outcome. He stated that this scenario would only activate if Bitcoin closes below the red moving average on a weekly timeframe. In such a case, the market could shift toward a deeper correction, with $40,000 identified as a potential reset level. Nevertheless, he assigned a relatively low probability to this outcome, indicating that it remains conditional rather than active.

Additionally, probability estimates provided by the analyst place an 85% likelihood on Bitcoin reaching $105,000, while the bearish scenario carries a 15 percent chance. The extended move toward the $165,000 to $200,000 range remains a longer-term possibility rather than an immediate target. Bitcoin continues to trade at a critical structural level, with historical patterns favoring continuation as long as key support holds. The current phase reflects consolidation rather than confirmed weakness.

Also Read: Analyst Warns XRP Holders: ‘Don’t Get Trapped, XRP Structure Still Points Lower’ – Here’s What You Should Know

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