Looking ahead to 2026: Can Apple stage a comeback after its AI struggles?

5d ago•

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Apple has been lagging in the AI race compared to the other tech giants.

While other tech giants have raced ahead with improved AI chatbots, video-generating apps, and much advanced AI models, Apple has not been able to deliver with its AI improvements.

A recent executive shakeup has also put Apple on the back foot as it deals with an AI team shakeup in a crucial phase.

However, Apple can still turn things around as they reportedly plan to integrate Google’s AI models into Siri.

Strong iPhone sales also buy the company time to prepare and develop its own AI models.

Apple’s AI woes

Most of the tech giants have put out improved versions of their AI models this year.

Google has been improving its Gemini models. OpenAI launched video video-generating app, Sora 2.

Amazon and Microsoft have also improved their AI models.

Apple has not been able to deliver its much-awaited upgraded Siri, which was announced in 2024.

The features from Apple Intelligence have also drawn mixed results.

Can a revamped AI team shake up things?

Apple in December announced that its AI head, John Giannandrea, is retiring from the company.

In July, several AI executives from Apple left the company to join Meta as the fellow tech giant went on a hiring spree to get AI talent.

Giannandrea won’t be directly replaced, as the AI team will now report to multiple executives, including Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President of Software Engineering, Sabih Khan, Chief Operating Officer, and Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President of Services.

Apple has also brought Amar Subramanya as vice president of artificial intelligence.

Subramanya will oversee the departments Giannandrea was heading at Apple. Subramanya’s hiring seems to be a déjà vu for Apple.

Subramanya joined the company after spending 16 years at Google and recently worked at Microsoft as corporate vice president of AI.

In 2018, Giannandrea also joined Apple after working at Google.

Giannandrea was the leader of Google’s search and AI groups, and the company had put AI technology in Google’s Photos, Translate, and Gmail apps.

Many then hoped that Giannandrea would be a blockbuster hire that would put Apple on the AI map.

7 years later, Giannandrea is leaving Apple with a delayed Siri and underwhelming AI features.

Could Subramanya change Apple’s AI strategies?

Jawad Ashraf, CEO of Vanar Chain, told Invezz that Subramanya’s appointment is meaningful “because it changes reporting lines and accountability, not just the name on the door.”

“But I don’t think this is fundamentally a one executive didn’t deliver the story. Apple’s AI posture is shaped by product values and constraints that are harder than simply shipping a bigger model quickly. And the industry has moved into an era where scale and iteration speed are brutally rewarded.” Ashraf added.

Anis Chohan, Co-founder & CTO, Inflectiv AI, said, replacing Giannandrea’s replacement with Subramanya “makes sense as a reset.”

“But it’s also a good sign of how far behind they’ve fallen. You don’t quietly retire your AI chief when things are going well,” noted Chohan.

Revamped Siri with Gemini

In November, Bloomberg reported that Apple is planning to use Google’s AI model to upgrade Siri.

The development shows that Apple is acknowledging it has fallen behind in the AI race.

The move could help Apple lean on Google’s tech while it develops its own AI models, the experts said.

“If the reporting is accurate, using Gemini is less “surrender” and more time-buying. Apple may license Google’s Gemini to power a major Siri overhaul, set as a temporary solution (while Apple develops its own systems).”, Ashraf said.

Chohan added that “Partnering with Google on Gemini fits how Apple has always operated. They lean on outside help first, learn from it, and eventually build their own version. Maps, weather, chips—same pattern every time.”

Ashrad, however, points out that “if Siri becomes a thin wrapper over someone else’s intelligence, Apple inherits dependency risk, product inconsistency risk, and perception risk.”

iPhone sales are still a crutch for Apple

Even though investors and customers worry about Apple falling behind, its best-selling product has delivered with the new model, providing Apple with crucial time.

Apple’s stock has gained 11% in the year so far, staging a comeback in the second half on the back of strong iPhone 17 sales.

The sales have been so strong that Apple is set to surpass Samsung in phone shipments for the first time in 14 years.

The new iPhone model has also helped Apple’s sales jump in China.

“Apple’s shipments are forecast to grow 6.1% YoY in 2025, up sharply from 3.9% in the last cycle.”, according to IDC data.

The report cited the strong sales of the iPhone 17 model, which led to strong sales in China.

Apple’s dismal AI hasn’t so far affected iPhone sales, but analysts wonder how much time the company will have before it does.

“The real question is what happens when AI becomes a deciding factor for average buyers. Samsung is already there with Galaxy AI, Chinese brands are shipping devices with local LLMs built in. Apple won’t have a real answer until Gemini-powered Siri arrives in spring 2026, and that’s assuming it ships on time.” Chohan said.

Asharf commented that there are risks in the medium-term risk if iPhones are lacking the AI assistants that are available in rival phones.

“If assistants become a primary interface for search, commerce, and tasks, then “great phone” remains necessary but stops being sufficient. Apple’s challenge is to convert today’s hardware momentum into an AI layer that feels native and dependable. If it does, the upgrade cycle extends. If it doesn’t, momentum becomes a lagging indicator.” Ashraf added.

Another threat to Apple comes from OpenAI.

The ChatGPT maker bought former Apple design chief Jony Ive’s startup, io, which makes AI devices, for $6.4 billion in May.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in November said that the company has finished a prototype of the AI hardware device.

John Ive said that the device would be launched in less than 2 years.

This AI hardware device could cause a lot of shifts in customer preference and dent iPhone sales.

Apple’s Eddy Cue said while testifying in a trial in May that AI technology is moving so fast that it could make iPhones obsolete in a decade.

It is clear that Apple is facing its most important challenge as the technology disruption brings an existential threat to its best-selling device.

The company has taken steps to address it. But investors will wonder whether the efforts will be enough.

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