Ross Ulbricht’s Pardon Odds Rise to 93% as Musk Confirms Trump Will Free Him

Highlights:

• Elon Musk confirmed Trump will free Ross Ulbricht, fueling market optimism for the future.
• McArdle also confirmed Ulbricht’s pardon could happen within 24-48 hours, raising hopes in crypto.
• Ulbricht’s pardon odds surged to 93% after Trump’s inauguration.

Donald Trump is starting his next term at The White House. Many await his decision on Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road marketplace. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed it, saying, “Ross will be freed too” on social media.

Ross will be freed too

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 21, 2025

Ross Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison in 2015. He was not found guilty of direct harm but was convicted of enabling illegal activities. Ulbricht has expressed regret for his actions. In prison, he has worked on self-improvement, studying and asking for his release.

Shortly after Musk’s comment, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket saw Ulbricht’s pardon odds rise. The likelihood increased from 54% to 93% during Trump’s first week. Bets on this specific pardon have reached a volume of $51,857.

Ross Ulbricht has not received any official notice from Donald Trump about lifting his prison sentence. During last year’s presidential campaign, Trump declared, “If you vote for me, on day one, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht.” Later, he repeated this promise at the Libertarian National Convention. Many now expect him to act since he is in office. Ulbricht’s supporters and the crypto community are hopeful he will follow through. 

McArdle Expects Ross Ulbricht’s Pardon Tonight or Tomorrow

Angela McArdle, chair of the Libertarian National Committee (LNC), stated that Ross Ulbricht is expected to receive a presidential pardon within the next 24 to 48 hours. In a message on the X platform, McArdle wrote: “Pres. Trump’s staff just confirmed to me Ross’s pardon will be issued late tonight or tomorrow morning.”

Pres. Trump's staff just confirmed to me Ross's pardon will be issued late tonight or tomorrow morning.

— Angela McArdle (@angela4LNCChair) January 21, 2025

Elon Musk echoed the same sentiment in a recent response on X, boosting market optimism. In May last year, Ross Ulbricht posted on X, stating that Trump would “commute” his sentence. This would reduce the severity of his punishment or prison term. Trump may go further and fully pardon Ulbricht, granting him complete forgiveness.

Last night, Donald Trump pledged to commute my sentence on day 1, if reelected. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

After 11 years in prison, it is hard to express how I feel at this moment. It is thanks to your undying support that I may get a second chance.

— Ross Ulbricht (@RealRossU) May 26, 2024

Trump’s Inaugural Address Skips Crypto

Trump took the oath of office as the 47th president of the United States, but his inauguration speech did not mention crypto. This left many disappointed, as they had hoped he would discuss topics like Bitcoin, creating a national Bitcoin stockpile, or establishing the US as a global leader in the crypto space.

After his inauguration, Trump signed several executive orders but did not mention Bitcoin or crypto policies. Despite this, the outlook for crypto remains positive. Several pro-crypto figures occupy key positions in the Trump administration. Trump has selected Paul Atkins to head the SEC and Caroline Pham to lead the CFTC, both of whom support crypto.

Additionally, he created a new role, “AI and Crypto Czar,” which David Sacks will fill. Sacks will oversee issues related to artificial intelligence and crypto. These pro-crypto appointments and ongoing legislative efforts indicate that significant regulatory changes may be coming soon. Industry leaders are optimistic that future policies will prioritize digital assets.

A report from Reuters on Monday highlighted that Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire believes the President will soon sign executive orders to ease restrictions on banks holding and trading crypto, effectively ending “Operation Choke Point 2.0.”

Trump and Melania Meme Coins Plunge After Inauguration

After the January 20 inauguration, the Official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin fell by 33%, reaching $32 at the time of writing. Likewise, the Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) dropped by 60% just a day after its launch.