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Bernstein Predicts Crypto Market Bottom in Q1 as Bitcoin Treasury Losses Extend 📉

29d ago
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👋 Welcome to the CoinStats Scoop, your weekly newsletter with the most groundbreaking Web3 innovations and market-moving headlines in the crypto space.

Stay in the loop with all the key market moves, emerging trends, and exciting developments in the crypto space from the past week.

Cryptocurrency markets extended their losses for another week as Middle Eastern tensions and hints at higher-than-expected interest rates continued to pressure risk asset demand.

Cryptocurrency funds turned negative for the first time in 5 weeks, as the 🇺🇸 US-Israeli 🇮🇱 war with Iran dragged on without a resolution in sight.

The decline has gradually forced some crypto treasury firms into selling, including Nakamoto, which sold $20 million in Bitcoin to fund its operations for the following year 💸.

Yet in a much-needed silver lining, brokerage giant Bernstein predicted that crypto valuations will find their local bottom before the Q1 earnings season, which will serve as the floor to start the next accumulation phase.

Moreover, market maker Keyrock hit a $1.1 billion valuation this week, showing that investment banking giants such as Standard Chartered continue pouring capital into emerging crypto companies despite the downturn 🚀.

In this week’s CoinStats Scoop, you’ll find:

📊 Crypto Market Analysis And The Most Important News In Web3

📈 Crypto Market to Bottom Before Q1 Earnings Season: Bernstein Predicts

💰 Keyrock Hits $1.1 Billion Valuation After Series C Funding

💸 Nakamoto Sells $20 Million in Bitcoin, $11 Million in Metaplanet Shares at a Loss

⚠️ Crypto Fund Investments Turn Negative as Iran War Tensions Rise

🔮 Analysis And Key Events That Will Shape The Crypto Market Next Week

Crypto Market To Bottom Before Q1 Earnings Season: Bernstein Predicts 📈

Cryptocurrency valuations may find their cycle bottom ahead of the recovery phase as companies approach the much-awaited first-quarter 2026 earnings season, according to brokerage firm Bernstein.

Bernstein maintained “outperform” ratings for its top three crypto-linked companies, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure, but cut price targets, saying the correction has improved the risk-reward ratio for investors seeking digital asset exposure, according to a note to clients shared on March 30 📊.

The broker lowered its Coinbase (COIN) price target from $440 to $330, its Robinhood (HOOD) target from $160 to $130, and its Figure (FIGR) target from $72 to $67, predicting weaker-than-expected Q1 earnings.

Bernstein said it expects blockchain infrastructure to gain more adoption in the coming years, including stablecoins, tokenized credit, and on-chain prediction markets, as the correction created a more attractive entry point to investors.

Coinbase’s stock fell 0.6% on Monday and remains down 57% from its all-time high of $380 breached in July, 2025, Yahoo Finance data shows.

Keyrock Hits $1.1 Billion Valuation After Series C Funding 💰

Brussels-based cryptocurrency market maker and neo investment group Keyrock hit a $1.1 billion valuation after completing a Series C funding round led by SC Ventures, the investment wing of investment banking giant Standard Chartered.

The investment round was led by SC Ventures with participation from Ripple, according to a March 31 announcement by Keyrock 🤝. The company provides a range of digital asset services, including market making, asset management, OTC and options trading.

The new capital will be used to strengthen Keyrock’s balance sheet, expand its services and pursue new acquisitions.

“Our latest funding round is a signal of intent for the future,” wrote Kevin de Patoul, Keyrock’s CEO :

✍️ “Last year, we launched Keyrock Asset & Wealth Management to provide a service offering that’s unmatched. In 2026, we’re pushing for more growth in our services, client base, and geographic reach, as we look to gain greater market share and reinforce our position as a leading player.”

Keyrock is currently active across 85 centralized and decentralized venues. Its team operates across 37 countries worldwide.

The funding round comes amid a drastic crypto market correction, as the latest testament of continued interest from large financial institutions that continue pouring funds into companies despite the bear market 🏛️.

Nakamoto Sells $20 Million In bitcoin, $11 Million In Metaplanet Shares At A Loss 📉

Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto, formerly known as KindlyMD, sold $20 million worth of Bitcoin in March, as treasury companies are pressured by the crypto bear market and geopolitical concerns.

Nakamoto sold 284 Bitcoin for about $20 million, around an average price of $70,400 per token, which was acquired at an average purchasing price above $87,500 💸, according to the treasury’s figures from December 2025.

The company also cut a significant portion of its stake in the Japanese 🇯🇵 Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, selling about 5 million shares for $11.1 million, at around $2.22 per share. The sale came as a significant loss, as Nakamoto initially acquired 8 million Metaplanet shares for $30 million at an average price of $3.75.

“Based on the foregoing, we have determined that our sources of liquidity will be sufficient to meet our cash needs for the next year from the issuance of the Audited Financial Statements. However, our liquidity position may be materially impacted by volatility in the market price of Bitcoin and other market conditions,” wrote Nakamoto in a March 31 filing, adding :

✍️ “We plan to use the proceeds to invest further in our businesses as well as replenish our working capital for costs associated with the recent Mergers.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains stuck below the key $70,000 area, forcing other Bitcoin treasury companies to wind down sales, while the companies with less capital may risk being acquired by larger incumbents.

Crypto Fund Investments Turn Negative As Iran War Tensions Rise 💥

Inflows into cryptocurrency investment products turned negative for the first time in 5 weeks, as investors pulled out due to escalation concerns related to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Investors pulled $414 million from crypto investment products last week, as total assets under management (AUM) sank to $129 billion.

United States based crypto products saw $445 million in outflows, while investors in Germany 🇩🇪 and Canada 🇨🇦 bought the dip and realized modest net positive inflows.

The pullback came amid fears related to the Iran conflict and growing interest rate hike expectations from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), according to a March 30 report by CoinShares, which wrote:

✍️ “Digital asset investment products recorded the first outflows in 5 weeks, totalling US$414m as investors worried over the increasingly drawn-out nature of the Iran 🇮🇷 conflict and the prospects of higher inflation, with the June FOMC interest rate expectations now having flipped from rate cuts to rate hikes.”

Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, remain limited by the Middle Eastern tensions, with no clear path towards de-escalation in sight 🛡️.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump said the two sides engaged in discussions related to a “total resolution of hostilities” and delayed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days. Yet, Iran’s parliament speaker denied these discussions, calling the messaging “fake news” to artificially “manipulate” oil prices.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Closes March In Green, As On-Chain Price Models Point To A Sub-$50K Cycle Bottom 📈

Buy-side demand for cryptocurrencies continued to stagnate due to the ongoing Middle Eastern tensions and high interest rate expectations in the United States.

Bitcoin fell 3.45% during the past week but recovered 1.9% during March, logging its first monthly close in the green in 5 months, according to CoinStats data.

In a silver lining to the crypto market downside, Bitcoin is steadily approaching this bear market cycle’s macro bottom before the recovery, which likely sits below $54,000, wrote popular Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo.

✍️ “Old school on-chain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait. Orange line correlates to the capital stored in BTC, and it has been leaving since November.”

The analyst’s prediction is based on the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) floor model, which measures how much long-term holders sold in relation to the market’s age.

Other market analysts have also echoed similar predictions 📈.

Based on the recent drop in the short-term holder realized price, more investors are pricing in an incoming bottom, wrote analyst and Alphractal founder, Joao Wedson:

✍️ “Now, the blue line I mentioned earlier is even lower, which could confirm that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly below, as we’ve discussed multiple times here.”

Short-term holders are often the primary cause of Bitcoin volatility, as this cohort historically takes profit during price rallies or panics and sells into corrections.

Considering the ongoing Middle Eastern tensions and energy shocks, investors seeking a good dip buying opportunity are best positioned to wait for Bitcoin to fall closer to the bottom levels indicated by these on-chain metrics.

In the altcoin market, over 40% of tokens are near their all-time lows, surpassing the extreme pain seen during the previous bear market low. Yet, some of these tokens may now approach levels creating “very attractive opportunities” for investors, wrote CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

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Thank you for reading the weekly CoinStats Scoop Newsletter.

CoinStats will continue to guide you through the world of crypto and DeFi. We’ll see you next week for another edition of CoinStats Scoop! 😎

29d ago
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