Tom Lee Sees Ethereum Price V-Shaped Recovery After 37% Drop

This article was first published on The Bit Journal. Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee, has expressed confidence that an Ethereum recovery is approaching, arguing that the cryptocurrency’s historical price patterns point to another sharp rebound despite its recent slide.

Lee Highlights Historical Ethereum Recovery Pattern

During a conference speech in Hong Kong on Wednesday, Lee admitted that there was increased frustration in investors but he urged them to look at the record of Ethereum since 2018. He says, a lot of people are frustrated, but remember that since 2018 Ethereum has dropped over 50 percent eight times. He added: 

“But eight out of eight times, Ethereum has had a V-shaped bottom. So it has recovered 100% of the time within almost the same speed that it fell.” 

$ETH 100% V-Shape Record 👀

Tom Lee highlights Ethereum's eight V-shaped recoveries since 2018.

Tom DeMark, whose models are followed by macro legends like Paul Tudor Jones and used across institutional desks, says a final undercut near $1,890 would “perfect” the bottom.

That… pic.twitter.com/j9zWoUOLgP

— SamAlτcoin.eth (@SAMALTCOIN_ETH) February 11, 2026

Lee cited a 64% decline between January and March last year as an example of this type of correction that Ethereum has previously surmounted in earlier Ethereum recovery periods. He argued:

“We think Ethereum is really close to the bottom, and I think it’s just like the fall of 2018, fall of 2022, and April 2025. You don’t really have to worry about the bottom. If you’ve already seen a decline, you should be thinking about opportunities here instead of selling.” 

Ether Tests Critical Support Amid Volatility

Market technicians also monitor the critical price levels that might verify the next phase of Ethereum recovery. BitMine market analyst Tom DeMark, predicted a bottom of $1,890, but indicated that the price might hit the bottom point twice in what he called an undercut, and then stabilize. According to Lee, this kind of move was a perfected bottom.

The price movement of Ether has been fluctuating. As of Feb. 6, TradingView chart data shows ETH dropped to $1,760 on Coinbase, which is close to its 2025 low of slightly above $1,400. The cryptocurrency has been unable to keep above the price of 2000, and it was trading at approximately 1970 at the writing time, 37 percent lower than it was 30 days ago. According to analysts, these sudden declines have historically been followed by Ethereum recovery.

Record Staking Supports Ethereum Recovery Narrative

Nonetheless, on-chain data, even after the price weakness, indicates a continued commitment of investors to Ethereum via staking, which may form a larger Ethereum recovery story. ValidatorQueue reports that the wait time to stake Ether has all time highs at 71 days and the entry queue in the validator queue has around 4 million ETH. In the meantime, the proportion of total supply of Ethereum staked stands at an all-time high of 30.3 percent of approximately 36.7 million ETH.

Analysts believe that the staking boom has caused a major supply crunch that can help bring about an Ethereum recovery in the future. According to crypto commentary platform, Milk Road, an approximate one-third of all ETH is being sent into illiquid, which is generating an annual percentage rate of 2.83%.

Long-Term Conviction Drives Ethereum Recovery Hopes

That’s not sexy yield by crypto standards. But here people are queueing anyway, said the analysts. When individuals put on locking up 74 billion dollars during a price fall, they are not speculating. They’re settling in.”

With Ether suddenly under growing short-term pressure, constrained supply circumstances and past rebound trends are enhancing the anticipation of another Ethereum recovery, should past market cycles offer any reference.

Conclusion

Despite Ether’s recent 37% decline, historical trends and record staking activity point to a potential rebound. As a third of ETH is currently illiquid and investors tying up billions of dollars when the market was at its lowest, market analysts believe that supply constraints and long-term belief may precondition another sudden Ethereum bounce recovery.

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Summary

• Tom Lee foresees Ether recovery with historical V-shaped rebounds and a possible bottom of about 1,890.
• ETH is in the middle of the volatility, declining 37 percent to $1,760, which approaches the 2025 low.
• Record staking limits supply, with 30.3% of ETH locked, supporting potential recovery.

Glossary of Key Terms

Validator Queue: ETH waiting to be staked.
Undercut: Price dips below support before rebounding.
Perfected Bottom: Confirmed low point ready for rebound.
Supply Crunch: Large portion of ETH becomes illiquid.
Illiquid ETH: ETH locked and unavailable for trading.
APR: Annual return from staking.

Frequently Asked Questions about Ethereum Recovery

1: What is Tom Lee’s view on Ethereum?

He anticipates a rapid recovery based on V-shaped historical recoveries and a possible low of about $1,890.

2: Why is demand for ETH still strong?

Record staking locks 30.3% of ETH, showing long-term investor commitment despite price drops.

3: How does staking affect Ethereum’s recovery?

Staking limits supply, making ETH illiquid, which could support a future recovery.

References

Twitter

Tradingview

Validatorqueue

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and risky. Readers should do their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before investing.

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