What if the merge fails? POS centralizes ETH defying the entire point of crypto

I havent seen a thought provoking arguement for the merge failing. Everything i read and research seems overly positive.

Yet there are some YT’s i follow who seem to be on a similar train of thought as myself.

Heres my two points, very curious what u guys think.

1. The merge takes POS asset supply sky high. Thus reducing value for ETH as a whole. POW asset supply drops like a rock. Assets like bitcoin skyrocket on keynesian economics.

2. The merge actually makes eth more centralized. Having lido control almost 50% of validating seems problematic at best. Seriously government could shut down lido and millions lost their nest egg.

The merge seems so hyper focused on reducing energy costs, they are risking everything in the name of climate change.

Predictions: 1. Eth futures gamma shows it plummeting around the 16th. So i see eth plummeting as well

1. I think the merge fails on one level or another. No sure what happens. Honestly POS seems to make energy critics happy, and defy everyone who made ETH a reality. Going against your base doesnt always go well.

Really looking for opinions on what if the merge doesnt go well. Looking to objectively weigh good outcomes vs bad.

I really dont have faith in the merge. The more i listen to experienced miners and YT’s the more i believe the merge fails. Laws of superforecasting have held up since i read the book and have only become stronger since the pandemic. With vast majority of people positive, super forecasting would state we have a 9/10 chance the merge does indeed fail.