Do you disagree with this thinking?

I understand assumptions are bad, I am not a prophet, and we have no idea what the future holds. This is nonetheless a fun exercise, and I would be interested in hearing what people think. Please, I am not trying to predict the price, it is just an exiting task.

Assumption is that the following are somewhat constant:

1. Demand for bitcoins
2. Hashrate
3. Energy prices
4. Hardware costs

In 2044, the mining reward will be ~0.0977 BTC. With the above assumptions, 1 bitcoin should be worth ~$1,000,000 then.

In 2056, the mining reward will be ~0.0122 BTC. With the above assumptions, 1 bitcoin should be worth ~$10,000,000.

Thinking:

As far as I can tell, the above four factors are more or less what dictate the value of the mining reward in fiat terms, which is currently, ~$125,000.

Bitcoin price = Mining reward in dollars / mining reward in bitcoins

And, the four factors are all likely to go up, rendering the above numbers quite bearish.