FBI Raids Polymarket CEO’s Home Amid Political Prediction Controversy

In a surprising turn, the FBI confiscated the phone and electronic devices of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan early Wednesday morning. The incident occurred only a week after the prediction platform accurately forecasted Donald Trump’s election victory. According to sources, law enforcement arrived at the 26-year-old entrepreneur’s SoHo residence at 6:00 a.m., requesting that he surrender his devices.

FBI Targets Polymarket CEO’s Residence in Early Morning Raid

During the raid, agents seized devices from Coplan, adding further complexity to an already contentious situation. A source close to the event called it “political theater,” arguing that authorities could have requested the devices through legal channels. This incident has sparked discussions about possible political motivations behind the FBI’s actions.

Is This Political Retribution? Speculation Surrounds the Investigation

One source hinted that the government might be retaliating against Polymarket’s successful election prediction, suggesting authorities could accuse the platform of “market manipulation or foul play.” Polymarket is a free public prediction platform focused on providing insight into events such as elections. A spokesperson clarified that Polymarket does not charge fees, take market positions, or restrict access to its data. Coplan was not detained during the raid, according to a source close to the matter.

Polymarket’s Election Night Forecasts: Early Signals Before Official Announcements

Polymarket’s predictive markets signaled a Trump victory probability of 58% as polls closed on election night. As the night progressed, that probability surged to 95% by 11:43 p.m., six hours before the Associated Press announced the result. In an X post on Wednesday, Coplan highlighted that Trump’s campaign reportedly took note of Polymarket’s prediction. He celebrated the outcome as a “victory for prediction markets,” calling Polymarket “the most accurate way to follow the election.” This election marked the first time Americans could legally wager on an election outcome, following a federal court’s decision in favor of election event contracts in October. However, Polymarket is no stranger to regulatory challenges: after a surge in wagers on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it was noted that French regulator ANJ could move to ban the platform.

Coinbase CEO Criticizes DOJ’s Investigation

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong weighed in on the recent DOJ inquiry into Polymarket, suggesting it could inadvertently boost the platform’s popularity. Armstrong argued that the investigation might have a political agenda, potentially strengthening Polymarket’s influence. During the raid, allegations emerged that Polymarket might be allowing U.S.-based users to engage in prediction markets, potentially violating previous agreements with U.S. regulators. In 2022, the CFTC penalized Polymarket $1.4 million, limiting U.S. investors’ access to the platform. Recent findings, however, imply U.S. users may still be active on Polymarket, raising compliance concerns.

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