Bitcoin Stays Resilient as US Inflation Accelerates to 3.8%

US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023, according to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The hotter-than-expected reading strengthened the US dollar and Treasury yields, triggering a cautious risk-off reaction across crypto markets.

Prices rose 0.6% month-over-month, matching economist expectations, while the annual inflation rate came in above the projected 3.7%.

The surge extends a sharp reversal from the 2.4% annual rate recorded before late-February US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered an energy price shock. A sharp rise in energy costs linked to the escalating war in Iran reversed the cooling inflation trend seen earlier this year.

Markets responded with a classic risk-off move. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgage rates, auto loans, and credit card debt, climbed more than 4 basis points to 4.459%, reflecting diminished expectations for near-term Fed easing.

Crypto ETFs felt the pressure directly: US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a combined daily outflow of $233.25 million on Tuesday, with nearly every fund recording redemptions. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the sole outlier, attracting $6.02 million in net inflows.

Despite the macro headwinds, digital assets showed relative resilience. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped roughly 1–1.5% to around $80,500 before stabilizing in the $80,500–$81,000 range. Its 24-hour price change remained near flat at 0.1%, and BTC dominance held steady at 58.3%.

Ethereum (ETH) underperformed slightly, oscillating in a 2% band between approximately $2,280 and $2,340, ending the day with a marginal 0.2% move. The total crypto market cap edged up 0.1% to $2.78 trillion over 24 hours.

Open interest data painted a cautious picture: while aggregate open interest across all exchanges ticked up 0.39%, CME futures declined 1.30% and OKX fell 1.73%, suggesting institutional and derivatives traders are quietly reducing exposure.

Above-forecast US inflation reduces the probability of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, a historically negative signal for risk assets including crypto. With ETF outflows rising and Treasury yields climbing, digital asset markets face a tighter macro backdrop that could suppress upside momentum in the weeks ahead.

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