MORPHO Technical Analysis
Current Market Status
MORPHO is trading at approximately $1.11 level with a 5.21% drop in the last 24 hours, trading below EMA20 ($1.21) within an overall downtrend structure. A 9 strong level confluence has been detected across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1 support/3 resistance in 1D, 1 support/1 resistance in 3D, and 2 support/3 resistance in 1W.
Key Support Levels
Primary Support
- $1.0624 (strength score: 75/100) stands out as the most critical support level, functioning as a strong order block and liquidity collection zone in 1D and 3D timeframe confluence
- This level is one of the recent 1-week lows and has been tested three times in October 2025, experiencing rejection with volume spikes each time
Secondary Supports
- $1.00 and $0.85 from the 1W timeframe are past swing lows showing high volume nodes in the volume profile
- $1.0190 support (score: 78/100) serves as short-term invalidation level; if broken, there is risk of acceleration toward $0.80 levels due to cascade effect
Key Resistance Levels
Near-Term Resistance
- $1.1967 (score: 69/100) is the first near-term resistance, in confluence with EMA20 ($1.21) and 1D supply zone; rejected twice in the last 48 hours with declining volume, showing seller dominance
- $1.3052 (score: 74/100) coincides with the 24-hour high and daily upper band; a breakout could turn short-term momentum bullish
Intermediate Resistance
- $1.2638 (score: 64/100) is strengthened by a pivot high near Supertrend $1.35 and an order block in the 3D timeframe
- $1.4648 (score: 63/100) is strengthened by a swing high from the 3D timeframe; breaking it would open the door to medium-term targets ($1.90+)
Major Resistance
- $1.7247 (score: 72/100) is a strong resistance cluster in 1W and 3D; it peaked during the November 2025 rally and aligns with Fibonacci levels
Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- RSI at 38.39 is close to the oversold region but momentum is weak
- RSI is at 38.04, approaching the oversold region but not yet giving a bottom signal – this carries short-term recovery potential but does not change the downtrend pressure
Moving Averages
- EMA structure is bullish: Price is above EMA20 ($1.22) and approaching EMA50
- Morpho price sits above only 10 EMA, but it's below 20, 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages
Supertrend & MACD
- The Supertrend indicator is bearish showing $1.35 resistance
- Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and highlighting the $1.57 resistance – this contradiction shows weakening trend strength
Chart Patterns & Price Action
Price has been squeezed between $1.05-$1.18 in the recent range; volume at 14.54M$ is moderate, downside breakout risk is high.
When examining multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 14 strong levels have been identified across the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 4 supports and 2 resistances on 1D, balanced distribution on 3D, and resistance dominance on 1W.
Volume Analysis
The movement in the 1.20-1.36 range on the daily timeframe is supported by $21.43 million in volume, indicating interest above the average of recent weeks.
Liquidity grab potential is high between resistance levels; volume confirmation is required for a breakout, otherwise fakeout risk exists.
OBV volume indicator is stable, but declining on down days limits momentum.
Timeframe Analysis
Hourly (1H)
- If BTC breaks below $77.8k, MORPHO loses $1.06 and drops to $0.59; if BTC holds $78.6k-$80.7k resistances, MORPHO could test $1.19
Daily (1D)
- MORPHO is trading at the $1.27 level with a 2.31% decline over the last 24 hours, while preserving its overall trend structure as an uptrend
Weekly (1W)
- In MTF, 1D uptrend with 1W flattening tendency; ADX around 25 confirms a medium-strength trend
Short-Term Outlook
Hold above $1.0624 for long bias – target $1.1967 (R/R 1:2), stop $1.05.
From the current $1.27 price, the bullish target is $1.9055 (score 25), offering a risk/reward ratio of approximately 1:2.5 – attractive with a stop at $1.2196 support.
Altcoins like MORPHO are 80+% correlated to BTC; expect cascade sell-off in alts if BTC breaks $62,345 support.
Medium-Term Outlook
This picture reflects MORPHO's effort to preserve its uptrend, but increased volatility is expected.
Volatility is high, so position sizing is critical; a 1-2% risk rule is recommended.
For medium-term recovery, breaking $1.2820 and $1.0937 resistances is essential.
Risk Considerations
Invalidity level is a close below $1.00; in this case, the downtrend accelerates and $0.5947 becomes the main target (R/R ratio 1:3+).
MORPHO, as a DeFi altcoin, is more sensitive to risk sentiment shifts. Investors rotated into Bitcoin during heightened volatility, evidenced by MORPHO's turnover ratio of 0.153 (indicating moderate liquidity stress).
