Is The Bear Market Here?

The sellers have maintained their dominance, controlling the market for most of the last two months, which has caused many to fear that a bear market is underway.

In October, the crypto market shed over 5%. However, the closing price of $3.65 trillion does not fully cover what transpired. The sector dropped to a low of $3.24 trillion before recovering.

Several analyses pointed to a rocky start to November and a deeper low than the previous month. The global crypto market cap slipped to a low of $3.14 trillion during the previous intraday session. Nonetheless, it is down by over 11% amid a slight recovery. Although the sector may experience buybacks in the coming days, it is likely heading for its second consecutive month of decline.

Trading action over the last five days was one of the most bearish in the previous 30 days. It opened the week at $3.49 trillion but has since slipped and is now trading almost 8% lower. The market slipped to its lowest value since June during this period.

Aside from the price, the bulls bled in the derivatives market. For example, the total liquidations on Friday exceeded $1 billion, with long positions accounting for $900 million. A similar event occurred the previous day, with long positions accounting for almost 90% of the total losses.

A closer look at the liquidation data reveals that losses affecting mostly long positions have been consistent since October, as the crypto market experiences a notable decline. Many argue that such a trend only occurs during bear markets.

Is It Really A Bear Market?

Many analysts agree that it is not a bear market.  They used two different metrics to arrive at this conclusion—the first: the derivatives market.

Events on Oct 10 saw traders lose a whopping $19 billion, with liquidated long positions accounting for $16.7 billion. Bullish participation in derivatives has significantly decreased as bulls fear a further decline. Ensuing trading action proved them right. 

The market has since struggled to recover from that event. One analyst noted that the consistent downtrend was due to derivatives orders accounting for a significant portion of the total trading volume over the last three months. 

It is also worth noting that several analyses have noted that the spot market volume for Bitcoin is weak. With its dominance, altcoins are unable to break out, as most saw a similar trend.

The trading action on Oct 10 that resulted in the massive long wipeout saw the bulls lose their grip on derivatives, allowing the bears to take control. The surge in shorting added further strain on the market. Due to this trend, large buys in the spot market resulted in small reactions compared to when selling happens. 

While this trend mimics what happens in a bear market, it is worth noting that the spot market still maintains a level of stability. During previous bear runs, spots led the selling and influenced prices. In a nutshell, spots are yet to be the sole price driver. Due to this factor, it may be hard to conclude that it is a bear market.

Capital Inflow Says NO

In his contribution about whether it’s a bear market or not, CryptoQuant CEO said that he does not believe that it’s a bear market yet. He cited the second metric: Capital inflow.

Ki Young Ju presented a chart, stating that Bitcoin is seeing notable capital inflows. He added that “Bitcoin is not a bear market as long as capital flows in.” By extension, the cryptocurrency market is not currently in a bearish period.

Backing up his statement is the list of firms that announced large purchases following the previous week’s dip. Strategy added to its stash on Monday, and Bitmine made its Ethereum purchase public. 

Away from institutions, a recent report indicated that over the previous week, whales accumulated more than 45,000 BTC, marking the second-largest weekly accumulation of this year. Capital inflow, as recently recorded, does not occur during a bear market. 

However, one of the comments under Ju’s post called attention to the fear and greed index. The handle noted that there is extreme fear, which may suggest a different conclusion from the CEO’s. 

A closer look at the chart reveals that the index is currently at 16, one point higher than its lowest readings in the last 12 months. However, when the index dropped to 15 in April, the crypto market recovered shortly after. 

The bear market did not happen then, as the other factors did not align. Similarly, the fear and greed index does not solely dictate when a bear market is in effect. Other factor, like capital inflow and spot market volume, provides such indications.

Not A Bear Market? What is it?

The market is seeing a much-needed correction following several months of significant surges. The 1-month chart shows that the global crypto market cap started its downtrend after it broke above the bollinger bands last month. It has since been on the decline.

The chart also indicates that this is not the first time the market has seen such a decline in 2025. It lost over 27% between February and March but recovered in April. The sector has lost over 17% between October and November so far, and a recovery may follow soon.

Darkfrost noted that open interest has fallen by 21% over the past three months, indicating a substantial reduction in leveraged positions. For comparison, the market saw even sharper declines during previous corrections — roughly 24% in September 2024 and 29% in April 2025. Notable surges followed.

He stated that the factors are lining up again. The analyst added that in bullish market phases, these periods are necessary as they help to clean up the market and “allow it to rebuild on healthier foundations.”

In summary, it’s not yet a bear market; the crypto market is undergoing a healthy correction phase and is expected to rebound in the coming days. 

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