Bitcoin Approaches Historic Accumulation Zone as Decade-Long Bottom Signal Returns

What to Know

• Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss reached 40.6% as historical bottom pattern reappears.
• MorenoDV says declining loss thresholds reflect Bitcoin’s increasingly mature ownership structure.
• Historical data places the high-40% range near key accumulation zones.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV has highlighted a long-term Bitcoin pattern showing that each market cycle requires less investor capitulation than the last, with his latest analysis identifying a market structure that has consistently aligned with major Bitcoin bottoms for more than a decade. Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss currently stands at 40.6%, a metric that measures the percentage of circulating supply held below its acquisition price, and MorenoDV believes the broader trend behind the indicator may offer valuable insight into where the market sits within the current cycle.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, data shared by the analyst shows that every major Bitcoin bottom since 2015 developed when Supply in Loss pushed into the upper boundary of a descending trendline, creating a recurring pattern that has remained visible across multiple bull and bear market cycles.

While earlier Bitcoin cycles required more than 60% of holders to remain underwater before a durable bottom emerged, later cycle lows formed at progressively lower levels, suggesting that the amount of stress needed to create a major accumulation opportunity has gradually declined over time.

The 2015 market bottom occurred when Supply in Loss climbed above 60%, while the 2018, 2020, and 2022 cycle lows appeared after the metric reached lower peaks, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved significantly during the past decade.

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Bitcoin Ownership Structure Continues to Evolve

MorenoDV explained that the declining loss thresholds may be linked to changes in Bitcoin ownership, as institutional investors, exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury firms, and long-term holders now control a larger share of circulating supply than they did during earlier market cycles. As a result, the market may no longer require extreme capitulation events to establish important bottoms because a larger percentage of Bitcoin is held by investors who typically maintain longer investment horizons and demonstrate greater conviction during periods of volatility.

Consequently, the descending trendline that previously intersected above 60% now points toward the high-40% range, creating a potential accumulation zone that traders and investors may continue monitoring in the coming months. Although the current reading remains below that historical threshold, MorenoDV noted that further weakness or prolonged consolidation could push Supply in Loss closer to the trendline that has repeatedly coincided with attractive long-term entry points.

Historical Behavior Suggests Caution and Opportunity

Beyond the numerical data, the analysis also highlights the psychological process that often unfolds during periods of elevated market stress, as rising levels of supply in loss tend to reduce confidence among short-term holders while encouraging patient investors to gradually absorb available supply. Historical market cycles show that these periods rarely produce immediate reversals because they are often accompanied by additional volatility, failed breakdown attempts, and extended phases of uncertainty before a sustainable recovery begins.

MorenoDV stressed that a move toward the trendline would not automatically confirm a bottom. However, historical data suggests that such conditions have repeatedly created some of the most favorable risk-reward environments observed throughout Bitcoin’s history.

Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss metric continues to follow a decade-long pattern that has accompanied every major cycle bottom since 2015. While the current reading of 40.6% reflects meaningful market stress, a move toward the high-40% range would place the indicator near a historical accumulation zone that has repeatedly coincided with important long-term buying opportunities.

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