PlanB Expects a Later Bitcoin Cycle Peak and Traders Are Split

Crypto analyst PlanB commented on forecasts regarding a possible peak in Bitcoin’s price, stating that it could occur in 2026–2028.

The expert noted that some traders believe the local top has already been reached at $126,000 and expect a drop below $100,000 in 2026. However, PlanB disagrees with this view.

He reiterated that although the four-year halving cycle does influence the market, making predictions based solely on it is a mistake. According to the analyst, the Stock-to-Flow model indicates the average price of an asset over the cycle, not its peak or bottom.

In the previous three cycles, the period of six months before the halving and eighteen months after it was indeed profitable, but this is not enough for a reliable forecast, the expert noted.

PlanB suggested that Bitcoin’s peak may not occur in 2025, but instead in 2026, 2027, or even 2028. He believes this will depend on a fundamental “phase transformation” — a market shift that has not yet occurred in the current cycle.

Among the technical signals that PlanB considers critical for the start of a “big jump” are:

• RSI has not yet reached 80
• The realized price has not deviated from the 200-week moving average

Outlook for the Coming Cycle

He added that either the “big jump” is still ahead, or the market has transitioned to a more stable regime dominated by institutions and funds. In both cases, he believes this is positive for Bitcoin, and a major bear market without a strong upward move is unlikely.

As a reminder, Citigroup previously stated that Bitcoin remains dependent on the stock market.