Bitcoin Price Prediction: Loss Rate Hits 10‑Month High

Bitcoin’s on chain supply is flashing early bear market conditions, with losses spreading even as price stays above realized value, analyst Woominkyu said. However, another chart shared by Ali Charts argued the current structure still resembles a consolidation that can break into a fresh uptrend, similar to Alphabet’s past setup.

Supply in loss signals early bear market phase, analyst says

Bitcoin may be shifting from a normal correction into a broader bearish cycle as losses spread across the supply, according to Woominkyu.

He said the key warning sits in how the on chain distribution changes, not in a single price candle. Supply in loss has climbed fast and now sits around the mid 40% range. At the same time, supply in profit has moved lower. He argues that this pairing has not typically shown up during “healthy pullbacks” inside strong bull trends. Instead, he says it has appeared when markets start to weaken structurally and transition into a bear phase.

Bitcoin Supply in Loss and Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant

In his read, the signal comes from breadth. More coins sit underwater, yet the market has not shown the kind of visible panic that often marks late stage capitulation. That mix matters because it can mean the sell pressure spreads quietly through the supply first, and then accelerates later when more holders flip from profit to loss and liquidity thins out. He described it as deterioration that builds under the surface rather than a clean reset that clears leverage and restarts expansion.

He also tied the setup to a repeated cycle pattern. When supply in loss pushes above the rough 40% area while supply in profit falls, and price still holds above realized value, he says history has more often favored extended downside than a quick rebound. In past cycles, he added, durable bottoms tended to form only after supply in loss expanded further and price compressed more, which is why he views the current condition as early stage bear market behavior rather than the end of a correction.

Based on that framework, his conclusion is that downside risk remains unresolved. He expects more pressure unless the loss share stops expanding and the market regains strength through a sustained improvement in the profit share, which would signal that the supply is recovering rather than slipping deeper into drawdown.

Bitcoin chart echoes Alphabet’s past structure, analyst says

Meanwhile, Bitcoin may be tracing a price structure similar to Alphabet’s historical breakout phase, according to a chart shared by Ali Charts on X.

The comparison aligns Alphabet’s past advance with Bitcoin’s current consolidation and recovery pattern. In the Google setup, price spent months grinding sideways, absorbed volatility, and then broke higher into a sustained expansion. The Bitcoin side of the chart shows a comparable sequence, with a volatile range giving way to stabilization near current levels before a projected move higher.

Alphabet vs Bitcoin Price Structure Comparison. Source: Ali Charts via X

If the analogy holds, the structure implies Bitcoin could be transitioning from consolidation into a renewed expansion phase rather than entering a prolonged decline. The projected path suggests upside continuation following the range resolution, similar to Alphabet’s move once resistance gave way.

The comparison does not rely on timing precision. Instead, it focuses on structural similarity, where extended consolidation precedes trend continuation. Based on that framework, the chart implies Bitcoin’s current phase may be a setup for a larger directional move rather than the end of the broader cycle.