Strategy (MSTR) Stock Jumps 33% on Revenue and Bitcoin Boost — Can the Rally Hold?

Strategy Inc, also known as MicroStrategy, has staged a sharp rebound in its stock price since early February. After forming a local low on February 5, the MSTR stock price has climbed nearly 33% in just a few sessions. The move followed both a recovery in Bitcoin and renewed big money interest in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-linked business model championed by Michael Saylor.

This bounce in the MicroStrategy stock price looks strong on the surface. But context matters. The key question is whether this rally reflects lasting confidence in Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin strategy or another temporary surge tied to crypto sentiment.

Bitcoin and Earnings Explain the Bounce — But Also Its Limits

Strategy stock’s long-term price behavior remains tightly linked to Bitcoin.

After Bitcoin topped near $126,000 in October, selling pressure spread across crypto-linked equities. Strategy followed almost immediately. From its October peak, the MicroStrategy stock price slid more than 70% as Bitcoin entered a deep correction.

Since February 5, Bitcoin has recovered about 11%, moving from near $63,000 toward $70,000. During the same period, Strategy jumped around 33%. This three-to-one reaction shows how leveraged the stock remains to Bitcoin moves and reinforces the strong MicroStrategy Bitcoin correlation.

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MicroStrategy-BTC Correlation: TradingView

Earnings added a second layer of support.

In its Q4 2025 report, Strategy posted revenue of $123 million, up 1.9% year over year. Subscription revenue surged more than 62%, showing continued strength in its cloud business. Gross margins remained near 66%, giving the core software unit stable cash flow.

The massive net loss was driven mainly by non-cash accounting losses on Bitcoin holdings accumulated under Michael Saylor’s long-term strategy. It did not reflect operational weakness. Management emphasized continued Bitcoin accumulation and long-term positioning.

This combination, Bitcoin stabilizing and revenue beating expectations, created the foundation for the rebound in the MicroStrategy stock price.

But it also shows the limitation. As long as Bitcoin dominates valuation, Strategy’s upside remains tied to crypto cycles. That makes institutional positioning especially important.

Big Money Is Accumulating Quietly, But Bears Still Control Momentum

One of the most important signals comes from the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF.

CMF measures whether large investors are buying or selling by combining price and volume. When CMF rises, it suggests that bigger players are accumulating. When it falls, it shows distribution.

Between late November and early February, Strategy’s price continued to fall. But CMF slowly trended higher during that period. This created a bullish divergence. While retail sentiment weakened around MicroStrategy stock, larger investors were quietly building positions.

After February 5, CMF finally moved above zero for the first time since December. This confirms that fresh capital has entered the stock. It suggests that big money is positioning for a potential Bitcoin recovery and sees Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, as a leveraged way to express that view.

Big Money Supports:TradingView

However, momentum tells a more cautious story.

The Bull-Bear Power indicator measures whether buyers or sellers control short-term pressure. Despite the 33% rally in the MicroStrategy stock price, this indicator remains negative. Sellers still dominate. This means accumulation is happening, but control has not flipped.

In simple terms, institutions are buying, but they are not yet willing to push prices aggressively higher. That makes the rally vulnerable to sudden reversals.

Bears Still In Control Of The MicroStrategy Stock Price: TradingView

This weakness is also visible in the trend structure.

MicroStrategy Stock Price Still Trades Below Key Trend Barriers Despite the 33% Rally

Trend confirmation remains incomplete. Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, are price averages that give more weight to recent data. They help identify whether a trend is strengthening or weakening.

When price trades below major EMAs, rallies often fail. When it reclaims them, momentum usually improves. Right now, Strategy remains below the 20-day EMA. This level has acted as resistance throughout the downtrend in MicroStrategy’s stock price.

In early October, the last time the MicroStrategy stock price broke above its 20-day EMA, the shares rallied another 10% shortly after. That confirmed trend strength. The current rebound has not achieved that yet. Without a clean EMA reclaim, rallies tend to stall. This also increases sensitivity to Bitcoin. Even a small BTC pullback could trigger renewed selling in MSTR.

The structure is now defined by a narrow set of key levels. On the upside, $138 is the first major resistance. A daily close above this zone would signal improving strength in the MSTR stock price.

MSTR Price Analysis: TradingView

Above that, $150 is the critical barrier. This level aligns with psychological resistance and the key moving average (EMA). A sustained move above $150 would indicate real trend repair for the MSTR stock.

If $150 is reclaimed, the next target sits near $189. Only above that would a broader move toward $300 become realistic. That remains a secondary scenario, not the base case. On the downside, risk remains clear.

The $107 to $104 zone marks the February low. This area has already been tested once. A breakdown below $104 would invalidate the rebound.

If that happens, the MicroStrategy stock price could slide toward $82. A deeper weakness could expose the $56 region near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.