Bitcoin (BTC) Volatility Nears Historic Lows. A Major Price Move Ahead?

Bitcoin’s realized volatility over the past three months has dropped to 70%, nearing some of the lowest levels in the asset’s history. This marks a slight rise from the recent local bottom of 62%, recorded on September 23, 2023, when BTC traded near $26,000.

Quarterly (3-month) realized volatility has dropped to 70%. This is close to historical minimums, but slightly above the local bottom of 62% that occurred on September 23, 2023 at a price of $26K. With the arrival of big money Bitcoin has become slow. The maximum realized… pic.twitter.com/scDOICvwok

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) July 28, 2025

According to data from CryptoQuant, this decline in volatility has persisted even as bitcoin’s price climbs toward all-time highs. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. illustrated the trend in a recent chart, showing the three-month volatility line approaching levels seen during previous market cycles.

Bitcoin Volatility Drops

As seen in the chart, despite the coin’s strong price performance, recent price action has remained relatively calm. Axel Adler Jr. suggests that the growing institutional presence may be reducing speculative swings and stabilizing the market.

This calm price action represents a significant shift from earlier periods, when bitcoin’s volatility was much higher. For example, in past cycles, the three-month volatility once reached as high as 236%. More recently, it peaked at 143% and even spiked to 127% earlier this year. Since then, volatility has been declining, indicating a steady reduction in price swings.

Historically, periods of low volatility, like the current one, have often preceded major price movements. This pattern has fueled speculation that BTC could be positioning for another significant trend.

Major Price Move Ahead?

Amid the calm market and growing speculation about a potential price rally, a crypto influencer asked Grok, an AI model from xAI, to predict bitcoin’s long-term price. Grok responded with a 21-year forecast based on three different valuation methods.

The first method relied on historical compound annual growth rates of between 20% and 30%, resulting in a projected value of around $13 million. The second used the stock-to-flow model, which accounts for bitcoin’s fixed supply and halving cycles, estimating a value above $50 million. 

A third approach incorporated adoption-based forecasts, such as Michael Saylor’s 29% annual growth thesis, which pointed to a target of $21 million. By averaging the three models, Grok arrived at a long-term price estimate of roughly $25 million by 2046.

The AI attributed this potential surge to the asset’s limited supply, increasing institutional participation, and broader global adoption. At the time of writing, BTC trades at approximately $119,000.

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