Europe Lost Russian and Hormuz Gas as HSBC Says 40%, Russia Says 100%

Europe gas prices 2026 are set to run significantly higher than projected, with two major supply routes now gone simultaneously. HSBC forecasts Dutch futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, will average $14 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $10 per million Btu in 2027, a 40% increase over earlier projections. The Europe energy crisis deepened further after the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off Hormuz gas supply that accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG. European storage is also sitting about 15 percentage points below the five-year average after a cold winter, leaving the continent with very little cushion.

European natural gas prices will be a whopping 40% higher than previously projected for 2026 and will stay elevated through 2027 as the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz set off a supply shortfall, according to a report from HSBC https://t.co/f33mFSnRJK

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

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EU Refuses Russian Gas as Dmitriev Predicts Europe Will Pay 100% More

Russia’s Envoy Puts the Number at Double

Russia’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev had this to say:

“European natural gas prices will be a whopping 40% higher than previously projected for 2026. We forecast at least 100% higher than previously projected, as Europe takes time to inevitably beg for more Russian gas.”

European natural gas prices will be “a whopping 40% higher than previously projected for 2026,” says HSBC. Devastating for industry and households.

We forecast at least 100% higher than previously projected, as Europe takes time to inevitably beg for more Russian gas. https://t.co/xUg8ivMjE0

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) March 17, 2026

Dmitriev’s figure goes well beyond the HSBC gas price forecast, and the reasoning is straightforward: he expects the EU’s refusal to buy Russian gas Europe was producing cheaply to eventually collapse under the weight of energy costs.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated:

“Following the U.S. decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil, Europe will maintain sanctions and continue to move away from Russian fossil fuels.”

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Hormuz Gas Supply Disruption Hits Europe Energy Crisis Hard

JUST IN : EU Rejects to Buy Russian Oil

Oil prices in the EU will ROCKET

EU's Kaja Kallas: Following the U.S. decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil, Europe will maintain sanctions and continue to move away from Russian fossil fuels. pic.twitter.com/BesCStOpuA

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) March 16, 2026

Attacks last month effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global LNG flows through it, and the disruption is forcing European buyers to pay a significant premium for alternative cargoes. Asian nations sourcing around 26% of their LNG from Qatar and the UAE are scrambling as well, but the Europe energy crisis makes the continent particularly exposed given its storage deficit. Bloomberg analysis puts Brent as high as $164 per barrel if the closure holds for three months.

US natural gas futures have barely moved through all of this, with American stockpiles ample and export terminals near maximum capacity. The HSBC gas price forecast holds at $8.50 per million Btu from 2028 onward, but that offers little relief to European industry and households dealing with Europe gas prices 2026 right now. Russian gas Europe could have offset some of this, but with Kallas drawing a firm line, that option is off the table.

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