Gold Lost 12% in March — Goldman and UBS Explain Why

Gold’s worst month in years was not just about panic — it was about plumbing.

A 24K99 analysis reveals the structural forces behind gold’s 12% March collapse, adding depth to the sell-off BeInCrypto previously reported.

Inside the Unwind

Gold fell to $4,376 per ounce by late March before recovering to around $4,679. That is still far below January’s intraday high of $5,626.

The biggest driver was a speculative blowup. 24K99, citing Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas, reported that demand for call options had hit record highs during the January rally. That built massive leverage across the gold market.

When Operation Epic Fury began, traders rushed to deleverage. Many had held gold longs to hedge short bets on tech stocks and Bitcoin. They liquidated everything at once, dragging gold down with the risk assets it was meant to protect against.

A stronger dollar compounded the damage. Inflation fears pushed the Dollar Index above 100 in March. Since gold moves inversely to the dollar, the geopolitical bid was effectively erased.

Rumors of the central bank selling added further pressure. 24K99 reported that Turkey may be offloading reserves to defend the lira. Poland discussed selling gold to fund defense spending. Gulf oil exporters, hit by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, may also be liquidating gold to cover import bills.

Thomas expressed caution about these reports but acknowledged that the rumors are weighing on investor psychology, according to 24K99. If confirmed, such sales would mark a reversal for central banks that have been net gold buyers for years.

But Banks Still See $5,000+

Goldman kept its year-end 2026 gold target at $5,400, estimating that central bank buying of 60 tons monthly supports prices by about $535 per ounce.

UBS analyst Joni Teves trimmed her forecast to $5,000 from $5,200. She still sees upside risk if growth weakens and triggers monetary easing.