RUNE jumps 19% as KelpDAO exploit funds flow through THORChain

The price of RUNE cryptocurrency surged sharply over the past 24 hours, climbing 19.1% to trade at $0.505, as an unusual spike in network activity pushed THORChain into the spotlight.

The rally stands out against a broader crypto market that gained just 2.47% in the same period, with Bitcoin itself rising 2.53%.

This clear outperformance points to a strong, asset-specific catalyst rather than a general market move.

At the centre of the surge is a large-scale laundering operation tied to the KelpDAO exploit, which has significantly increased THORChain’s on-chain activity.

KelpDAO exploit-driven activity fuels THORChain volume surge

On-chain data shared by Specter shows that funds stolen from the KelpDAO exploit were rapidly moved through THORChain, with estimates suggesting between $80 million and $176 million worth of assets were processed.

The exploit itself is estimated at roughly $290 million, making it one of the largest decentralised finance breaches in recent months.

According to Spectre, the attacker (linked to the North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor) began moving funds just hours after the Arbitrum Council froze 30,766 ETH, valued at approximately $71 million.

The remaining funds were split across three wallets holding roughly 25,000 ETH, 25,700 ETH, and another 25,000 ETH.

One of these wallets quickly initiated laundering, reducing its balance to about 3,800 ETH, or around $8 million.

The laundering process relied heavily on THORChain, with nearly 99% of the funds routed through the protocol and bridged into Bitcoin.

The process involved more than 400 addresses and even mixed funds with proceeds from earlier incidents, including the BTC Turk and Bybit hacks.

This surge in activity pushed THORChain’s daily transaction volume above $211 million on April 21, representing more than a tenfold increase over its 30-day average.

Interestingly, the trading volume has continued to soar, with today's trading volume pushing above $680 million, a 1,938% increase in a single day.

The spike in usage has translated directly into protocol revenue, with fees estimated at around $189,000 during the period.

Utility spike meets technical breakout

The sudden increase in usage has had a direct impact on RUNE’s price action. Unlike speculative rallies driven by sentiment, this move coincided with a measurable rise in network demand.

At the same time, technical conditions amplified the upward move.

RUNE broke above key short-term moving averages, including its 7-day and 30-day levels near $0.426 and $0.406.

Daily exponential moving averages also show a bullish alignment, with the price trading above the 10, 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs.

Momentum indicators confirm the strength of the move, with the MACD histogram turning positive, signaling increasing upward momentum.

However, not all indicators point in the same direction.

Out of 23 tracked technical indicators, 11 suggest bullish conditions, 8 point lower, and 4 remain neutral.

This split highlights a market that is trending higher but showing signs of strain.

Oscillators in particular are leaning bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently sits at 73.03 on the daily chart, firmly in overbought territory.

Interestingly, the weekly RSI tells a different story.

At 33.59, it still reflects oversold conditions, suggesting that despite the recent rally, the asset remains in a broader recovery phase after a prolonged decline.

THORChain (RUNE) price forecast

In the near term, price action will likely depend on whether the current surge in activity can be sustained.

The first key level to watch is support at $0.485. Holding above this level would maintain the current bullish structure.

A drop below $0.462, however, would signal weakening momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback.

The major downside level sits at $0.4125. A break below this point would invalidate the recent breakout and could lead to further losses.

On the upside, resistance is clearly defined at $0.6129.

A confirmed close above this level would indicate continuation and could push the price toward the next target at $0.6873.

Beyond technical levels, traders should also watch the upcoming developments within the THORChain ecosystem, especially the planned integration of Monero, scheduled for May 10, which could introduce new demand for privacy-focused swaps.

For now, the price remains supported by a sharp but unusual increase in network activity.

But whether that support holds will depend on how the market reacts once the current flow of funds subsides.

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