Hello everyone,
I do programming for a hobby and after learning Python (<3) I took a dive into Pine Script on Tradingview. You can try investment strategies on historical chart data.
After my first post I've implemented and tested several ideas from your comments:
- daily, weekly or monthly DCA - result: statistically it doesn't matter on which weekday or which timeframe you do your DCA, do what's most comfortable
- 'buy the dip' DCA - buy only when prices are at least 60% / 70% lower than last ATH
- 'MACD-DCA' [1] - stacking your USD until buy signals occur / sell everything at local highs (sorry for TA, this is more swing trading than DCA to be honest)
- RSI-investing - only invest at low RSI values - worst strategy (ignored) [1]
- All tested with a monthly investment of $500 USD and 0.3% slippage / fees because buying isn't free
- Not financial advice and always DYOR (don't do automatic MACD trading or something like that)
Bitcoin since 1/1/2018 (buying near ATH)
Total investment: $29k - all results rounded
simple DCA (1st of every month): | $58k - $29k profit |
buy-the-dip DCA 60% under ATH: | $62k - $33k profit |
buy-the-dip DCA 70% under ATH: | $75k - $46k profit |
MACD-investing: | $75k - $47k profit |
ETH since 1/1/2018
Total investment: $29k - all results rounded
simple DCA (1st of every month): | $138k - $109k profit |
buy-the-dip DCA 60% under ATH: | $141k - $112k profit |
buy-the-dip DCA 70% under ATH: | $145k - $117k profit |
MACD-investing: | $120k - $91k profit |
This is what buying 60% under last ATH looks like. Obviously during a bullrun a lot of money is being stacked, leading to a huge buy after the next crash. Bought the Corona-Dip like a Sniper:
https://preview.redd.it/76ex0wp774y91.png?width=1704&format=png&auto=webp&s=364d5db35185f6eb56c9365dd258498f8ea43fd4
Lucky-Loser-Investment - since may 2021 ATH
Total investment: $9,500 - all results rounded
simple DCA (1st of every month): | $6,100 - 3,400$ loss |
buy-the-dip DCA 60% under ATH: | $8,300 - 1,200$ loss |
buy-the-dip DCA 70% under ATH: | $10,6000 - 1,100$ profit |
MACD-investing: | $8,300 - 1,200$ loss |
A very short timeframe, thus the results should be taken with a bag of salt.
Long-time test - buying Bitcoin since 11/30/2013 (ATH)
Total investment: $54k - all results rounded
simple DCA (1st of every month): | $1.12M - $1.07M profit |
buy-the-dip DCA 60% under ATH: | $1.04M - $0.99M profit |
buy-the-dip DCA 70% under ATH: | $1.01M - $0.96M profit |
MACD-investing: | $1.9M - $1.9M profit (wtf) |
Please tell me if you have any ideas or strange investment strategies. Most strategies you will find will be sold to you by cherrypicked data. We can test that stuff.
[1] RSI: no matter what timeframe or levels I tried, buying according to RSI values has been worse than just DCA.
submitted by