Crypto networks ‘must wake up’ after Google exposes nightmare nine-minute Bitcoin break-in scenario

• Quantum computers that crack Bitcoin cryptography could roll out in 10 years.
• Users’ crypto is still safe today, say experts.
• Network operators must hurry up and respond to the threat, specialists warn.

Nine minutes is all it would take for a quantum computer to break the cryptographic algorithms that protect crypto transactions, say researchers from Google, Stanford University, and the Ethereum Foundation.

But while experts say crypto owners don’t need to press the panic button yet, they warn the crypto sector that failing to rise to the challenge could spell disaster.

“Users’ assets are safe today,” Michael Heinrich, CEO of the blockchain and AI firm 0G Labs, told DL News. “But the industry needs to wake up. The danger isn’t quantum computers now. It’s the ones coming in 2035 when half the industry still hasn’t upgraded.”

The warning comes as major crypto players, including the aforementioned foundation, scramble to get upgrades in place to protect their multi-billion-dollar blockchain protocols.

Nine-minute warning

Google’s researchers used an undisclosed model to simulate the kind of computing power it would take to decrypt the algorithms that protect transactions and wallets.

While quantum computers already exist today, none of them currently have the capability to break the cryptography protecting Bitcoin.

However, the prospect of quantum computers becoming a reality in the next few years spooked crypto. And these machines, Google appears to have demonstrated, will surpass their predecessors, wielding the kind of computational power needed to crack blockchain algorithms in the time it takes to make a cup of coffee.

“The gap between theory and real-world deployment remains significant, particularly around scale and error correction, so this is not an overnight threat,” Leo Fan, the founder of the crypto firm Cysic and the former quantum resilience lead at Algorand, told DL News.

But Fan warned of “long-term risks” that could emerge if quantum systems become capable of cracking elliptic curve cryptography. That’s the protective algorithms used by most leading crypto networks, including both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

And it was precisely these attacks on elliptic curve cryptography that the Google team targeted.

“Once quantum systems cross the threshold, the signatures protecting wallets could be forged,” Fan said. “The transition to post-quantum cryptography is slow and difficult, especially for decentralised networks.”

No simple fixes

Scientists are still a decade to 15 years away from rolling out the kind of quantum computers needed to break into wallets, Heinrich said.

But when these types of machines do emerge, simple fixes won’t protect against the kind of widespread crypto thefts that could occur without adequate preventative measures, insiders warn.

“Blockchain systems can’t just push updates,” said Heinrich. “They need coordinated protocol upgrades across decentralised networks. This is an infrastructure problem disguised as a security warning.”

Google’s research “directly refutes every argument the crypto industry has used to dismiss the quantum threat,” Alex Pruden, CEO and cofounder of the blockchain firm Project Eleven, said in comments shared with DL News.

“Bitcoin can’t just push an emergency update,” said Pruden. “Protocol changes take years of consensus and testing.”

Tim Alper is a News Correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at tdalper@dlnews.com.