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Bitcoin’s Invisible Threat

<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/1sj7j1b/bitcoins_invisible_threat/"> <img src="https://preview.redd.it/2k1x2myzlpug1.jpeg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=cd9477c75c7591246288b9978e55d23ca7d23794" alt="Bitcoin’s Invisible Threat" title="Bitcoin’s Invisible Threat" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin could push toward $80K once Iran and the U.S. reach a lasting peace in the Middle East. But the war has already done real damage to the global economy — damage that crypto will have a hard time shrugging off.</p> <p>The hidden threat for Bitcoin is hiding in March's CPI numbers. U.S. consumer inflation hit 3.3% on an annual basis. Even the core PCE index — the Fed's preferred gauge — is hovering close to 3.0%.</p> <p>The Fed cut rates early, banking on inflation returning to the 2% target. That's clearly not happening anytime soon. And if inflation pushes past 4%, the Fed would have no choice but to hike rates on an emergency basis.</p> <p>Bitcoin is often pitched as an inflation hedge, but the chart tells a more nuanced story. BTC tends to do well when price growth is modest. Once inflation climbs above roughly 3.5%, Bitcoin tends to break down — exactly what happened in 2022 and 2023.</p> <p>Bitcoin can't rally while the U.S. economy is stagnating, and a stagflationary environment tends to drag down GDP across developed economies as well. That's the likely outcome of sustained inflationary pressure.</p> <p>Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, oil prices wouldn't fall significantly — and gas prices even less so. Energy is a major driver of inflation, but the war has hit other sectors too: agricultural goods, steel production, logistics.</p> <p>My take: as long as inflation keeps rising, buying Bitcoin is probably not the right move.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON -->   submitted by   <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/tornavec"> /u/tornavec </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://i.redd.it/2k1x2myzlpug1.jpeg">[link]</a></span>   <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/1sj7j1b/bitcoins_invisible_threat/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>