3 Key Signals Paint a Bullish Picture for US Stocks

US stock markets are staging a recovery from the March selloff, with three key signals aligning to signal renewed confidence.

The rebound follows a volatile first quarter shaped by the US-Iran conflict, surging oil prices, and broad risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto markets.

Stock Market Flashes Recovery Signals

The Kobeissi Letter reported that the S&P 500 has posted its longest winning streak since October 2025. It has rallied 8% from its March 30 low.

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In a separate post, the analysts noted that roughly 65% of the stocks in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, are now trading above their 10-day moving averages.

That figure has jumped 40 points in just five sessions, the sharpest increase since November. In March’s second week, only 12% of stocks traded above that same average. That was the lowest reading in at least six months.

QQQ Breadth. Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

The improvement extends beyond tech. More than 70% of stocks in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have also reclaimed their 10-day moving averages. This suggests the rally is broad-based rather than driven by a handful of mega-cap names.

Historically, the Nasdaq 100 has traded higher 80% of the time over the following 12 months after reversals of this magnitude. That pattern adds a statistical backdrop to the current momentum.

“The market is setting up for a historic recovery,” the post read.

Insiders Remain Optimistic

Corporate executives also signaled confidence. In March, 26.4% of US publicly traded companies saw net insider purchases, the highest proportion in five months. 

The reading rose from 20.9% in February and exceeded the 10-year average of 23.5%. This marked the second consecutive monthly increase in insider buying.

“This is also above the 10-year average of 23.5%. Corporate executives stepped in to purchase their own stock after the market pullback last month, a sign of confidence in a recovery,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote.

However, not all sectors reflected the same optimism. In energy, the share of companies with net insider purchases fell 1.6 percentage points to 17.5%. This decline suggests executives in that sector do not expect oil prices, elevated by the Iran conflict, to remain high for long.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee added to the bullish case. He believes the market has bottomed and that the S&P 500 could reach 7,300 this year, implying notable upside from current levels. Lee noted that stocks demonstrated resilience during the worst of the geopolitical escalation, rising even as oil prices surged.

Whether the rally extends into a sustained recovery will depend on the durability of the ceasefire and how quickly oil-related inflation pressures ease. For now, the recent recovery, breadth, and insider conviction are aligned, painting a positive picture.

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