Will Cardano Repeat History? Last $0.25 Test Delivered a 200% Rally

Cardano’s persistent bid in the $0.26 area is challenged once again: despite being under pressure, ADA’s market value kept above the key support of $0.25 for the most part of the month. However, the delays in Clarity Act & geopolitical uncertainty had taken its toll on ADA’s price this Friday, plummeting the popular altcoin to $0.24.

Cardano’s (ADA) price dropped by 3.83% in the latest 24-hour period, mimicking the broader market downturn, as the top largest assets Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) took in similar deficits. At the same time, Cardano untiring devs have been developing a separate private chain known as the Midnight Network, counting on interoperability between 80 blockchains.

The bifurcation from a highly-bearish momentum towards a neutral one occurred right after the Midnight Kūkolu completion week had begun. To further buttress the emerging liquidity shift, Cardano recently introduced the USDCx stablecoin, which is a wrapped USDC version of the regular stablecoin. This has considerably improved the chain’s total value locked (TVL).

The USDC stablecoin is crowned Cardano’s DeFi king, capturing 36% of the stablecoin market capitalization. On the other hand, the cumulative TVL has taken a considerable hit since the late 2024 peak. Nearing nearly $1 billion then, Cardano’s DeFi now sports $171 million, losing nearly 80% of the ecosystem’s value since the pinnacle.

The stablecoin-driven DeFi renaissance, along with Cardano’s Midnight chain nearing a gradual mainnet launch this year, the potential for ADA price appreciation is still there. In the near term, Cardano’s (ADA) price needs to clear the $0.256 level, representing the Smoothed Moving Average (purple line).

Fibonacci Circles, a key financial instrument determining the boundaries of a downturn or a potential next leg-up, insists the $0.27 resistance level is key. Sustaining above it on a daily time-frame could align with Ali Martinez’s historical price-movement based ADA analysis.

The seasoned trader explained two different occasions when Cardano (ADA) bounced back 85% and 200%, respectively. This weekly chart analysis is based on the condition that Cardano (ADA) staysabove $0.25.

In a bearish projection, Cardano’s support at $0.235 remains critical, so closing the day outside of the lower Fibonacci Circle region could spell more trouble for ADA.

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