Japan Goes All-In on Debt — Here’s Why Bitcoin Traders Should Care

Japan’s government submitted three major fiscal bills to parliament on February 20, formalizing a structure of simultaneous tax cuts, record spending, and debt-financed deficits under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

The package carries both short-term risks and longer-term implications for Bitcoin and crypto markets.

The Fiscal Picture

The 2026 budget totals ¥122.3 trillion ($793 billion) in spending — a record for the second straight year — against ¥83.7 trillion in projected tax revenue. The gap will be filled by issuing ¥29.6 trillion in new government bonds.

The government also submitted a tax reform bill. It raises the income tax threshold from ¥1.6 million to ¥1.78 million. The bill also extends mortgage tax breaks and eliminates a vehicle acquisition tax. These measures are projected to reduce national and local tax revenue by approximately ¥700 billion annually.

The third bill extends Japan’s special deficit bond law for five years from 2026. Japan’s fiscal law technically prohibits the issuance of deficit bonds. Only construction bonds are allowed. But this exception has been repeatedly renewed for decades. The extension ensures the borrowing structure remains legally intact.

Together, the three bills paint a clear picture: debt-servicing costs hit ¥31.3 trillion, surpassing ¥30 trillion for the first time, while tax cuts further reduce revenue. Japan’s national debt already stands at roughly 250% of GDP, the highest among developed nations.

Short-Term Risk: BOJ Rate Hike and Carry Trade Unwind

For crypto traders, the immediate concern is clear. This fiscal expansion increases pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise rates.

Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi said on February 16 that the central bank will likely have enough data to justify a rate hike in April. Mizuho’s global markets co-head went further. He told Reuters the BOJ could hike up to three times in 2026, potentially starting in March. Markets currently price an approximately 80% probability of a hike by April.

The pattern linking BOJ hikes to Bitcoin selloffs is well-documented. BTC dropped roughly 23% after the March 2024 hike. It fell 26% after July 2024 and 31% after January 2025. The mechanism runs through the yen carry trade. When rates rise and the yen strengthens, leveraged positions funded in cheap yen unwind rapidly. Crypto absorbs the shock first due to its 24/7 trading and high leverage.

BTC currently trades around $67,000, down over 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. US Bitcoin ETF holders sit on average 20% unrealized losses with a cost basis near $84,000, and ETFs have turned net sellers in 2026. Another BOJ hike could amplify this pressure.

However, the December 2025 hike to 0.75% had a limited impact, as markets had already priced it in, and speculative positioning is currently net long yen — suggesting a repeat of August 2024’s violent unwind is not guaranteed.

Longer-Term Signal: Sovereign Debt and the Digital Gold Narrative

Beyond the immediate rate risk, the fiscal package reinforces a structural narrative that has been building around Bitcoin. Japan — the world’s most indebted developed economy — is cutting taxes and expanding spending simultaneously, funding both entirely with bonds.

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet embodies this thesis. Holding over 35,000 BTC (roughly $3 billion) and targeting 100,000 BTC in 2026, the company borrows in weakening yen through preferred equity instruments to accumulate Bitcoin. Its strategy is effectively an arbitrage on Japan’s fiscal trajectory: borrow in a depreciating currency, buy a fixed-supply asset.

For Bitcoin, Japan’s fiscal expansion creates a paradox. In the short term, it pressures the BOJ to tighten, threatening carry-trade-driven selloffs. In the longer term, the same fiscal trajectory erodes confidence in sovereign debt sustainability, strengthening BTC’s positioning as a hedge against currency debasement.

The key variables to watch are the spring wage negotiation (Shunto) results in March, the BOJ’s April policy decision, and whether 10-year JGB yields — currently at 2.14% after retreating from January highs — resume their climb toward 3%.