Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle broken — and if so, where to next?

Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle has ended in 2025, with institutional ETFs and regulatory shifts cited as key factors.

A wave of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds, an easing of regulations in the US, an increase in global liquidity, and a Federal Reserve leadership change are just some of the reasons why analysts think the typical four-year cycle is broken.

The four-year cycle, tied to Bitcoin (BTC) halving events, cuts miner rewards in half and reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation. 

Historically, this was seen as the catalyst for a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull run that peaked around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market.

Read more