Interview: AMINA Bank's Sonali Gupta explains BTC’s resilience during market turmoil

Recent geopolitical tensions have triggered sharp moves across global markets, with oil prices rising, the dollar strengthening, and equities facing pressure.

In contrast, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, prompting fresh debate over its role during periods of macro uncertainty.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at around the $74,000 mark.

While correlations with risk assets remain strong, short-term divergences have emerged.

In this interview, Sonali Gupta, Senior Research Analyst at AMINA Bank, discusses the drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent outperformance, the impact of derivatives and institutional flows, and how evolving regulation, market cycles, and infrastructure developments could shape the trajectory of crypto markets in the months ahead.

Here are the edited excerpts:

Invezz: Over the past few weeks, markets have reacted sharply to geopolitical developments. How do you interpret what has happened across asset classes?

According to Gupta, the recent geopolitical escalation has had a clear impact on global markets, particularly through energy prices and currency movements.

“Bitcoin has risen in the last few weeks despite heightened global uncertainty,” she says.

The geopolitical shock, including attacks on regional oil infrastructure and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, sent oil prices sharply higher before some stabilisation occurred after intervention from the International Energy Agency. Even after the retracement, oil prices remain significantly elevated.

“We know that strikes on oil refineries in the Gulf region and the closure of Strait of Hormuz have sent oil and gas prices to new highs.”

Higher oil prices and a stronger dollar have weighed on equities, but Bitcoin has held up comparatively well.

Gupta attributes part of this resilience to earlier market conditions.

A significant liquidation event in the first few months of the year flushed leverage out of the system, while derivatives positioning and expiring short positions also contributed to the recent move.

Invezz: Bitcoin is often said to trade like a high-risk tech stock. Yet recently it has diverged somewhat from equities. Why do you think that happened?

Gupta acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically shown strong correlation with equities.

“In my experience, I have seen that crypto correlates more with equity markets or higher risk beta stocks.”

Over shorter time frames, the correlation between crypto and equities can exceed 80%.

However, the relationship is not constant. During periods of geopolitical stress, crypto can temporarily diverge.

“Bitcoin is a much smaller asset class than gold… but we see crypto catching up to gold in periods of geopolitical stress as a safe haven hedge.”

She notes that such divergence tends to be temporary, but it highlights that Bitcoin’s market dynamics are still evolving as the asset class matures.

Invezz: Gold has not performed as strongly as some investors expected during this period. Why do you think Bitcoin has held up better?

Gupta attributes Bitcoin’s relative strength to several market-specific factors, particularly the earlier leverage flush and changing institutional positioning.

“The first is the leverage flush that happened in the month of February.”

Bitcoin is currently trading well below its previous peak, and significant selling pressure earlier in the year pushed key metrics to historically low levels.

One indicator she highlighted is the Coinbase Premium Index.

“The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for weeks, and now I see it turning positive in the month of March.”

This shift suggests renewed demand from US-based buyers.

At the same time, profitability indicators across the Bitcoin network have fallen to levels last seen during the 2022 downturn.

“Bitcoin profitability is so low now… the monthly average profit signals are at levels last seen in 2022.”

Such conditions have historically coincided with potential market reversals.

Gupta also notes that institutional exposure to crypto remains relatively small.

“Bitcoin allocation of institutions towards crypto has been on average less than 5%.”

That limited allocation means macro shocks affect crypto markets less directly than traditional assets, even though price movements often occur simultaneously.

Invezz:Looking ahead, how could the market evolve depending on how the geopolitical situation develops?

Gupta says the key variable for markets remains uncertainty.

“Equities or risk markets hate uncertainty.”

If geopolitical tensions ease, several macro factors could shift simultaneously.

Oil prices would likely fall, the dollar could weaken, and expectations around interest rate cuts could return.

“The moment the conflict is near resolution, we will see an impact in declining oil prices, a weakening dollar… and a general risk-on sentiment.”

However, she emphasises that crypto markets also have internal catalysts independent of macro developments. One example is regulatory progress in the United States.

“For instance, the Clarity Act, which is being discussed in the United States market.”

The proposed legislation could change how certain digital assets are classified, potentially enabling broader institutional participation.

Such changes could significantly expand institutional demand for crypto through structured investment products.

Invezz: What do you see as the main catalysts that could drive crypto markets higher in the coming years?

Gupta believes the crypto market still follows a cyclical pattern.

“I am tempted to admit to the cyclical aspect of the cryptocurrency market… the four year cycles.”

Having entered the industry in 2017, she says she has observed multiple cycles and believes the pattern continues to influence investor sentiment.

Beyond cyclical factors, she sees infrastructure development as an important driver of the next phase of growth.

“More institutional exposure to cryptocurrencies… through the efforts of tokenization.”

Major financial institutions are increasingly exploring blockchain-based settlement systems and tokenized financial products.

Developments around tokenised stocks and digital asset infrastructure are already underway.

“We saw many infrastructure developments take shape in 2025.”

For Gupta, the next phase of the market may be less driven by speculation and more by integration with traditional financial systems.

“I think 2026 would be less sentiment-driven… rather more infrastructure-building.”

Invezz: ETF inflows into Bitcoin have been strong recently. What could be driving that trend?

Gupta says ETF flows are often linked to derivatives market dynamics rather than simple spot demand.

“Oftentimes… institutions invest into BTC spot ETFs more often to earn the positive funding rate in the derivatives markets.”

As derivatives markets grow larger than spot markets, institutional investors can use ETF exposure as part of broader trading strategies.

“And as we see more volumes in the derivatives market, we have seen inflows in the BTC spot ETFs as well.”

She believes this dynamic could trigger a short-term recovery rally but warns that volatility is likely to remain high.

“We remain in a highly volatile environment.”

Much of the exposure in the market now comes through structured products, derivatives, and yield strategies rather than direct spot purchases.

Invezz: Some critics continue to predict that Bitcoin could fall dramatically, even to $10,000 or $20,000. How do you respond to those views?

Gupta views such predictions as largely speculative.

“I would say that their reactions and their beliefs are more like memes or noise.”

She argues that there remains strong demand for Bitcoin at lower price levels, both from institutional investors and retail participants.

“I see a massive demand at lower levels from both institutional and retail markets.”

More broadly, she says most participants in the industry remain fundamentally optimistic about the asset class.

“You cannot be in this space unless you are biased or emotionally invested or absolutely bullish in the space.”

Invezz: Finally, what are your expectations for Bitcoin over the rest of the year?

Gupta believes the outlook for the year remains constructive.

“I think we will definitely be above $100k at the end of this year.”

While volatility is likely to continue, she sees a six-figure price level as a realistic outcome given the combination of institutional adoption, market cycles, and evolving infrastructure.

The post Interview: AMINA Bank's Sonali Gupta explains BTC’s resilience during market turmoil appeared first on Invezz