0
0
After 6 years in the crypto market and thousands of hours learning how to trade full time, this is by far the most important information Iâve found for anyone investing in crypto and for some reason I very rarely see it mentioned
The bitcoin halving
This is what the previous bitcoin market cycles have ALL been based around
This is an event that happens roughly every 4 years and essentially halves the rewards given to miners causing an inherent increase in demand as the cost of mining a bitcoin doubles.
Why this doesnât get talked about more often is something I really donât understand
The reason crypto doesnât just go up forever is because markets are cyclical The markets are cyclical because eventually, everyone who was going to buy, has And then the most money to be made is to the downside
I donât care how many times I hear Blackrock Vanguard Microsoft Google PayPal Visa Elon Musk China El Salvador John McAfee bulls*it
BTC(and every other marketâŠ)has always followed a pattern
1.Accumulation (Slow sideways low volatility market for 3-6 months at the lows) this always starts about 12 months before the bull run
2.Mark up (bull market) usually starts about 6 months before the halving
3.Distribution (where the sellers start re entering the market, you can spot this through volume) Usually about 1 year after the halving
Then back to accumulation
After a huge sentiment killing bear market, BTC will sit in a low volatility sideways accumulation zone at the lows as the big boys scoop as much BTC as they can for as little as possible. (This gives you PLENTY of time to position)
It doesnât make sense for them to just run the market straight up because then the big boys need to pay more for their BTC.
In order for them to keep BTC at them lows they need to kill retail sentiment beforehand so that retail doesnât rush into the market and drive prices up before theyâre ready to run BTC up.
The way they do this is by doing exactly what weâre seeing now
âBtc has never gone under previous cycles ATH, 200 weekly MA etc etc etcâ
So buyers rush in at these levels just to get crushed again
Then theyâll do the same thing at 15k
And probably the same thing once again at 10k
This is to disenchant retail buyers, kill sentiment and elude to the fact that once again âcrypto is deadâ
After the market has been driven down so hard that the majority of investors lose interest (and money) then the big boys will start accumulating at the lowest prices possible
This will only happen once the majority of retail has stopped providing liquidity on the other side of the trade for the big boys to sell into
In other words, we need to get SO low that no one wants to touch BTC anymore
THEN, we get close to the halving and enter a mark up phase.
After the halving BTC will then cost more to mine and so it provides the perfect catalyst to start pushing up the market
The markup phase is when the market starts to run up hard, regaining retail traders attention and positive news articles etc
Anyway thereâs a little bit more to understanding liquidity and institutional positioning but most of you donât really care about any of that
HOW DOES THIS MAKE YOU MONEY? Be real, you didnât buy cumrocket and shiva because youâre âin it for the techâ
The way you make money out of this is very simple
Markets work in phases and these are actually very easily identifiable
there are 4 phases
Accumulation Mark up Distribution Mark down
Accumulation generally has 3 sub phases
Accumulation Expansion Reaccumulation
If youâre worried about trying to catch a falling knife then you just need to wait for the first leg of expansion and enter in the reaccumulation zone
These accumulation zones are very easily identifiable because theyâre low volatility, low volume, sideways ranges at the bottom of a massive move down
Youâll know when BTC is in an accumulation phase because 95% of this group will cease to be active or only pop their head in to tell you how much of an idiot you are
This shows you maximum pain is here and is the perfect time for the big boys to accumulate
Below is a chart i made at the start of this market cycle showing how you can identify the structure to see where weâre at
As you can see, we havenât even started to enter an accumulation phase weâre still very much in the âbear marketâ mark down phase
Youâre not missing anything
Relax and make sure youâve got some capital left over for the supreme lows
And before anyone says âno one can pick a bottomâ
I did
-Howard C Shakleford (Facebook AMPToken Group)
0
0
Manage all your crypto, NFT and DeFi from one placeSecurely connect the portfolio youâre using to start.
0
0
0
0
