US Labor Market Shows Recession-Level Weakness Outside One Sector

The US labor market appears increasingly reliant on a single driver. Labor Department data shows that healthcare and social assistance have accounted for nearly all net private-sector job growth since December 2024, while the rest of the economy has shed jobs.

A breakdown of the numbers reveals a sharp divide between one booming sector and widespread weakness across virtually every other industry. 

Healthcare Props Up US Labor Market as Rest of Private Sector Contracts

The Global Markets Investor noted that the US economy has added an average of just 21,000 jobs each month since the beginning of 2025. This represents an annual pace of roughly 0.2%.

The post stated that the job creation has “never been this weak” outside of a formal recession. To put this in perspective, annual employment growth averaged about 2.2% between 1948 and 1979, slowed to 1.5% from 1980 to 2007, and dropped further to roughly 0.8% during both 2008–2019 and 2020–2024.

At present, job growth is running at a pace nearly four times weaker than during the post-financial crisis period and more than ten times weaker than during the post-war expansion.

Meanwhile, healthcare and social assistance have added approximately 57,000 jobs per month since December 2024. That means the rest of the private sector has been losing an estimated 21,500 jobs per month over the same stretch.

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“Since December 2024, healthcare and social assistance has added ~855,000 jobs, while the rest of the private sector has lost -322,000. That means a single sector is masking a broad-based CONTRACTION across the rest of the world’s largest economy,” Global Markets Investor wrote. “Healthcare and social assistance now represents NEARLY ALL net private-sector job creation since the end of 2024.”

Healthcare Job Growth vs. the Rest of the Private Sector Since December 2024. Source: X/Global Markets Investor

The March 2026 jobs report reinforced the pattern. The economy added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls, but healthcare alone accounted for 76,000 of those positions.

“Remove one sector and the labor market is already in a RECESSION,” the post added.

This concentration raises a key concern: without one sector propping up employment, the broader labor market may already resemble recessionary conditions, even as headline figures suggest continued growth.

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