Bitcoin Refuses to Stay $69K — What’s Next for It?

Bitcoin is trading close to $70k at the time of writing. However, it prints a red candle on the 1-day scale, showing a wick extending downward.

It is off to a bad start on Thursday as the bulls struggle to keep prices above $69k. The current price action mirrors that seen on Wednesday, when the apex coin slipped below $69,000 before rebounding and surging above its opening price.

The rebound has begun; it remains to be seen whether buyers will trigger another significant rally in the coming hours. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that they received a boost from fundamentals during the previous intraday session.

One of the most anticipated events of the week is the release of economic data. The CPI is one of the most widely used inflation indicators. The data dropped on Wednesday and came out better than expected. While many forecasts were negative, the actual figure showed almost no change from the previous month or year.

Investors preferred the stable consumer price index to a declining one, leading in the hike. However, the upward momentum fizzled as news from the Strait of Hormuz made the rounds.

The apex coin is gearing for another major release from the US. Prices are less volatile as traders await the initial jobless claims. As with CPI, the median forecast is also negative, predicting a rise in this stat. If it comes out as predicted, further decline will follow.

Nonetheless, amid the fundamentals, several indicators suggest the price will bounce back. A closer look at the 1-day chart shows that Bitcoin is experiencing stability around $69k, a level it hasn’t seen in over 30 days.

The Bulls Defend $69k

Thursday will mark the third day above $69k. Since Feb 7, any surge above this key mark has met rejection, resulting in an immediate reversal.

However, the trend changed in the first week of March. On the 4th, the apex coin surged to a high of $74k and traded above $69k the next day amid intense selling. Similarly, it surged above $71k on Tuesday and has since held above that level.

While the $69,000 support is not the toughest, current market action suggests significant demand concentration around it.

Data from CryptoQuant shows exchange reserves declining. The latest trend began in Feb 22, following several days of consistent increases, as investors moved BTC to these trading platforms to sell. The decrease shows renewed conviction that prices will surge higher.

However, there’s more. Between Feb 22 and Mar 5, investors moved over 38,000 BTC from exchanges into private wallets. Nonetheless, between Mar 9 and 11, over 20,000 units moved. This means that the buyers accelerated buying over the last three days, keeping the asset afloat and defending the $69k support.

Spotting the growing bullish conviction, Darkfost noted that some short-term holders have taken advantage of the price consolidation in previous months to increase their bags. “As a result, their SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has been trending upward since February.” The trend is ongoing at the time of writing as the SOPR maintains its upward structure.

Aside from spots, the same trend is also present in derivatives. Data from Coinglass shows significant changes in the liquidation heatmap since Bitcoin climbed above the level under review.

The chart above shows that since Mar 10 when prices surged above $69,000, traders have opened new long positions. A growing number of these fresh positions have their liquidation price pegged around $69k. Nonetheless, the cluster spans $68,800 to $69,100, with a total exceeding $200 million.

Bitcoin Bull Score Index Surges

Given the positive stance on spot and derivatives, it is easy to conclude that Bitcoin is bullish at the time of writing. However, this does not mean that the bearish period has ended.

The Bitcoin bull score index is rising in response to several green metrics from exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity, and price momentum. As a result, it is at 30, switching from extra bearish to bearish.

The latest development is significant as this is the first time since November that this metric has risen to 30. A closer look at the chart above shows its movement has been capped at 20 over the last six months. The latest trend suggests that the apex coin is currently experiencing significant bullish exposure compared to the previous months.

The next level after the “bearish” phase is “getting bearish.” It remains to be seen whether the index will reach this level. Nonetheless, improvements in exchange-traded funds bolster conviction in further increases in the coming days.

Data from SoSoValue shows that since Feb 23,  ETFs tied to the apex coin have seen notable inflow. They posted only three days of negative net inflow. The trend has been ongoing since this week began; investors have consistently bought the funds.

Since Monday, cumulative net inflows have exceeded $550 million. In previous times, this consistent ETF buying have preceded a massive surge.

Bitcoin Eyes $74k

If the bulls maintain the current bullish posture, a further uptrend is almost guaranteed. The impending option expiry could trigger a surge above $72k.

Contracts worth over $1.85 billion will expire on Friday. A breakdown shows that there are more call buyers at the time of writing, accounting for 13,610 of the 26,537 total open interest. The max pain is also at $69,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading above the pain price, which means the calls are in profit. The higher number of bullish investors in this contract suggests a greater chance of further gains in the coming hours. However, the expected uptick hinges on positive initial jobless claims.

Assuming the data comes out positive, the bulls must overcome the market makers who are currently shorting the coin. The Greek table shows that they will throttle down the shorts when prices break above $71k. Delta will revert to neutral at $76k.

A surge to $76k is unrealistic at the time of writing. However, after breaking $72k, a surge to $74k is likely.

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