Bitcoin Sees Short-Term Surges but Structural Weakness Persists in 2026

Bitcoin ($BTC) keeps showing indications of vulnerability while navigating through 2026. In this respect, the counter-trend spikes are seemingly unable to commence an exclusive bull cycle. As per Benjamin Cowen, the weekly price trajectory of Bitcoin ($BTC) presents a 2.73% rise while trading at $88,949.65, while its open. Hence, irrespective of the short-term strength, the wider trend around $BTC is tactical rather than structural.

Counter-trend rallies can happen for #BTC, but they are mostly tactical at this point, likely not the continuation of the bull market.

Bitcoin will likely continue to remain weak for at least the first half of 2026.

I wrote a memo about it here:https://t.co/VZblsDWj8q pic.twitter.com/7yzDa3dhn2

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) January 28, 2026

Apathey-Led Peaks Indicate Unsustainable Bitcoin Rallies

The market data discloses that the top crypto asset has accomplished the 2023-2025 cycle while entering a digestion period analogous to that seen in mid-2019. Additionally, unlike the euphoric highs of 2021and 2017, the 2025 peak witnessed apathy, with speculative breadth and retail participation failing to touch historic levels. Such a muted enthusiasm indicates that while $BTC hit new price highs, the rally was deficient of speculative and social energy required to sustain an extended bull rally.

In addition to this, the on-chain statistics also reveal that a sheer jump into mid-2025, leading to a downward correction, has confirmed this narrative, while the moving averages are ultimately flattening. Interestingly, the apathy-led peaks do not guarantee extended or deeper bear markets in comparison with euphoric ones. Back in 2019, the dip in Bitcoin’s price was provisional and not as severe as year-long drawdowns that occurred after former euphoric tops.

Price Action Suggests Caution for 2026’s 1st Half

Nonetheless, apathy-led plunges are likely uneven, including recurrent countertrend rallies instead of a single capitulation phase. According to Benjamin Cowen, such a pattern goes in line with the present conditions as Bitcoin ($BTC) has witnessed tactical rebounds while still being structurally constrained. At the moment, the trajectory of the leading crypto asset appears cautious for 2026’s first half, with diverse tactical opportunities overwhelmed by significant structural vulnerabilities.